未来10年,锂钴镍锰4种电池矿物材料的供应量趋势变化

文摘   2025-01-04 00:02   广东  

Visualizing the Supply Deficit of Battery Minerals (2024-2034P)

电池矿物材料的供应赤字可视化图(2024-2034年预测)


The world currently produces a surplus of key battery minerals, but this is projected to shift to a significant deficit over the coming decade.

目前,全球关键电池矿物的生产呈现过剩现象,但预计在未来十年内,这一状况将转变为显著的供应赤字。


This graphic illustrates this change, driven primarily by growing battery demand. The data comes exclusively from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as of November 2024.

这一变化是在不断增长的电池需求推动下出现。我们将这种变化用可视化图展示出来。数据来自Benchmark Mineral Intelligence,时间截至202411月。


Minerals in a Lithium-Ion Battery

锂离子电池中的矿物

Minerals make up the bulk of materials used to produce parts within the cell, ensuring the flow of electrical current:
各种矿物材料构成电池部件的主体,确保电流的流动:

Lithium: Acts as the primary charge carrier, enabling energy storage and transfer within the battery.


锂:作为电荷的主要载体,使电池内部的能量储存和转换成为可能。
Cobalt: Stabilizes the cathode structure, improving battery lifespan and performance.

钴:稳定阴极结构,提高电池的使用寿命和性能。

Nickel: Boosts energy density, allowing batteries to store more energy.

镍:提高能量密度,使电池能够存储更多的能量。

Manganese: Enhances thermal stability and safety, reducing overheating risks.

锰:增强热稳定性和安全性,减少过热的风险。

The cells in an average battery with a 60 kilowatt-hour (kWh) capacity—the same size used in a Chevy Bolt—contain roughly 185 kilograms of minerals.

一块60千瓦时(kWh)容量的普通电池(例如雪佛兰Bolt所使用的电池)大约含有185千克矿物。

Battery Demand Forecast

电池需求预测

Due to the growing demand for these materials, their production and mining have increased exponentially in recent years, led by China. In current scenario, all the metals shown in the graphic experience a surplus.

由于对这些材料的需求不断增长,它们的生产和开采量在近年来呈指数增长,而中国是这些关键材料生产和开采的领先者。在当前情况下,图表中所示的所有金属目前都处于过剩状态。

In the long term, however, with the greater adoption of batteries and other renewable energy technologies, projections indicate that all these minerals will enter a deficit.

然而,从长远来看,随着电池和其他可再生能源技术的更广泛采用,预测显示所有这些矿物将进入赤字状态。

For example, lithium demand is expected to more than triple by 2034, resulting in a projected deficit of 572,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). According to Benchmark analysis, the lithium industry would need over $40 billion in investment to meet demand by 2030.

例如,预计到2034年,锂的需求将增长三倍以上,导致预计出现57.2万吨锂碳酸盐当量(LCE)的赤字。根据Benchmark的分析,到2030年,锂行业需要超过400亿美元的投资才能满足需求。

Metric

指标

Lithium

(tonnes LCE)

Nickel

(tonnes)

Cobalt

 (tonnes)

Manganese

(tonnes)

2024 Demand

2024需求

1103000

3440000

230000

119000

2024 Surplus

2024盈余

88000

117000

24000

11000

2034 Demand

2034需求

3758000

6082000

468000

650000

2034 Deficit

2034赤字

-572000

-839000

-91000

-307000


Nickel demand, on the other hand, is expected to almost double, leading to a deficit of 839,000 tonnes by 2034. The surge in demand is attributed primarily to the rise of mid- and high-performance electric vehicles (EVs) in Western markets.

另一方面,镍的需求预计将几乎翻倍,到2034年将导致83.9万吨的赤字。对镍需求的激增主要归因于西方市场对中高性能电动汽车(EVs)的需求增加。

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