2015年伯克希尔股东会问答:保持好奇心

文摘   2024-12-10 17:05   湖南  

2015年伯克希尔股东会问答:

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is Chander Chawla and I’m from San Francisco. Thank you for the last 50 years of sharing your wisdom and being an exemplar of integrity.

股东:大家好,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我叫Chander Chawla,来自旧金山。感谢你在过去的50年里分享你的智慧,并成为正直的典范。

Fifty years ago, when you were starting out or getting into new industries, how did you figure out the operational metrics for a new industry where you did not have previous experience?

50年前,当你开始或进入一个新的行业时,你是如何为一个你以前没有经验的新行业找到运营指标的?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we — A) we didn’t have it thought out that well, in a sense, at that time.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,首先,从某种意义上说,我们当时没有考虑得那么好。

But we basically looked for companies where we thought we could understand what the future would look like 5 or 10 or 15 years hence. And that didn’t mean we had to do it to four decimal places or anything of the sort, but we had to have a feel for it, and we had to know our limitations. So we stayed away from a lot of things.

但我们基本上是在寻找那些我们认为能够了解未来5年、10年或15年的公司。这并不意味着我们必须把它算到小数点后四位或者其他类似的东西,但我们必须对它有一种感觉,我们必须知道我们的局限性。所以我们远离了很多事情。

And at that time, prices were different, so we — in terms of knowing we were getting enough for our money, it was a much easier decision than it is currently.

那时候,价格是不同的,所以我们——在知道我们的钱花得值这方面,那是一个比现在容易得多的决定。

But it wasn’t — they weren’t elaborate — well, there were no planning sessions or anything of the sort. We just kept reading and we kept thinking and we kept looking at things that came along, as Charlie described it in the movie, and you know, comparing Opportunity A with Opportunity B.

但它不是——他们没有精心设计——嗯,没有计划会议或任何类似的东西。我们一直在阅读,一直在思考,一直在观察发生的事情,就像查理在电影中描述的那样,比较机会A和机会B。

And in those days, we were capital constrained, so we usually had to sell something if we were going to buy something else. And that always makes for — you know, that’s the — an interesting challenge, always, when you’re measuring something you hold against something that has come along and to see which is more attractive.

在那些日子里,我们资金紧张,所以如果我们想买别的东西,我们通常不得不卖掉一些东西。你知道,这总是一个有趣的挑战,当你在衡量某样东西时你拿着它和已经出现的东西比较看哪个更有吸引力。

And we probably leaned very much toward things where we felt we were certain to get a decent result than where we were hopeful of getting a brilliant result.

我们可能更倾向于那些我们认为肯定会得到一个不错结果的事情,而不是那些我们有希望得到一个出色结果的事情。

Went with our instincts, and kept putting one foot in front of the other.

跟着我们的直觉走,一步一步向前走。

Charlie, what would you say?

查理,你会怎么说?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, that’s exactly what we did, and it worked wonderfully well. And part of it is because we were such splendid people and worked so constructively, and part of it is we were a little lucky. We had some good fortune.

芒格:嗯,我们就是这么做的,而且效果非常好。一部分是因为我们是非常优秀的人,工作非常有建设性,还有一部分是因为我们有点幸运。我们有一些好运气。

Now, Warren says he was lucky to go to GEICO, but not every 20-year-old was going down to Washington, D.C., and knocking on the doors of empty buildings to try and find something out that he was curious about.

现在,沃伦说他很幸运能去GEICO,但并不是每个20岁的年轻人都会去华盛顿特区,敲开空荡荡的大楼的门,试图找到他感兴趣的东西。

So we made some of our luck by being curious and seeking wisdom, and we certainly recommend that to anybody else.

所以我们通过好奇和寻求智慧获得了一些运气,我们当然会向其他人推荐这一点。

And there’s nothing that produces wisdom more thoroughly than really getting your own nose whacked hard when you make a mistake, and we had a firm amount of that, didn’t we?

当你犯错误的时候,没有什么比狠狠地揍自己的鼻子更能彻底地产生智慧了,我们有很多这样的经历,不是吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: We had plenty of them. If you read this book, you’ll see about a few of them.

沃伦•巴菲特:我们有很多这样的例子。如果你读了这本书,你就会看到其中的一些。

We thought we knew the department store business in Baltimore and we thought we knew about the trading stamp business.

我们以为我们了解巴尔的摩的百货公司业务,我们以为我们了解交易邮票业务。

We’ve had a lot of experience with bad businesses, and that makes you appreciate a good one. And to some extent, it sharpens your ability to make distinctions between good and bad ones.

我们经历过很多糟糕的生意,这让你对好的生意心存感激。在某种程度上,它能提高你区分好坏的能力。

And we’ve had a lot of fun along the way. That helps too. If you’re enjoying what you’re doing, you know, you’re likely to get a better result than if you go to work with your teeth clenched every morning.

我们一路走来也有很多乐趣。这也有帮助。如果你喜欢你正在做的事情,你知道,你可能会比每天早上咬紧牙关去上班得到更好的结果。

CHARLIE MUNGER: I think we were helped because we came from families where there was some admirable people, and we tended to identify other admirable people better than we would have coming from a different background.

查理·芒格:我认为我们得到了帮助,因为我们的家庭中有一些令人钦佩的人,与来自不同背景的人相比,我们倾向于更好地识别其他令人钦佩的人。

So, my deceased wife used to say, you can’t accomplish much in one generation.
所以,我已故的妻子曾经说过,你不可能在一代人的时间里完成很多事情。
We owe a considerable amount, both of us, to the families we were raised in. I think the family standards helped us to identify the good people more easily than we would have if we’d had a more disadvantaged background.

我们两个人都欠我们成长的家庭很多。我认为家庭的标准帮助我们更容易识别好人,比我们如果来自一个更不利的背景时会更容易。

Do you agree with that, Warren?

你同意吗,沃伦?

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Have you still got your father’s briefcase?

沃伦•巴菲特:是的。你爸爸的公文包还在吗?

CHARLIE MUNGER: I’ve still got it, but I don’t know where it is. (Laughter)

查理·芒格:我还留着它,但我不知道它在哪里。(笑声)

Can’t carry it anymore. It’s worn out. It’s got holes in it.

再也提不动了。它已经坏了。上面有洞。

WARREN BUFFETT: I’ve got my dad’s desk from 75 years ago.

沃伦•巴菲特:我还留着我父亲75年前的桌子。


解读:

从某种程度上说,一旦你接受价值投资,那就再也无法离开了,因为它意味着你要一直学习、一直思考、一直成长,直到生命的尽头。

巴菲特的投资理念也会随着环境的变化、自身的经验积累而迭代升级,并非一成不变。

因此,专注和热爱很重要,而好奇心可能更重要,它可以自发地驱动你去潜心研究。
声明: 本文不构成投资建议


延伸阅读:

关注,右上角菜单栏● ● ●键,设为星标

分享↓在看↓点赞↓
更多反馈,更多陪伴

Charlie伴你投资
和你一起走进价值投资的大门,理解财富底层逻辑,感受大师智慧光芒,做聪明的投资者,与时间为友,实现财务(人生)自由。
 最新文章