2013年伯克希尔股东会问答：
AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Dexter Ang (PH). I’m from Stafford, Virginia.
股东：我的名字是Dexter Ang (PH)。我来自弗吉尼亚州的斯塔福德。
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Derek Foster, Ottawa, Canada.股东：德里克·福斯特，来自加拿大渥太华。
First of all, thank you, Warren, for sharing all your information. You’ve changed my life. I took finance in university, couldn’t understand Greek formulas, but now I can invest reasonably well.首先，谢谢你，沃伦，分享你的信息。你改变了我的生活。我在大学里学的是金融，不懂希腊公式，但现在我可以很好地投资了。
My question to you is, in the past you’ve said for an investor, you should simply — for 99 percent of investors — you should simply stick money in an index fund and let it go and don’t worry about it. Those 1 percent of investors, choose your best five stocks and put a substantial amount of money in it.我的问题是，你曾经说过，作为一个投资者，你应该——99%的投资者——你应该把钱投到指数基金里，然后放手，不用担心。那1%的投资者，选择你最好的5只股票，并投入大量资金。
I’m just wondering, how about a strategy of, perhaps, buying 20 of the best stocks in America, you know, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, whatever, the companies that have been around for centuries — or a century or decades or whatever — and just leaving it at that.我只是在想，如果有这样一个策略，比如买20只美国最好的股票，比如宝洁、可口可乐、强生等等，这些已经存在了几个世纪、一个世纪或几十年的公司，然后就这样算了。
Do you think that that would outperform an index fund over the long term? And I want Charlie’s opinion as well.你认为从长期来看，它的表现会优于指数基金吗？我也想听听查理的意见。
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I don’t know whether you’re saying the 20 largest companies or the 20 best. You might get different thoughts from different people on what they are.沃伦·巴菲特:嗯，我不知道你说的是20家最大的公司还是20家最好的公司。你可能会从不同的人那里得到不同的想法。
But I think you would — probably the 20 you would pick would virtually match the results of an index fund. Who knows exactly which ones would be the best?但我认为，你可能会选择的20只股票，其结果与指数基金相当。谁知道哪些是最好的呢?
But the real distinction — and Graham made this in his book, basically — is between the person who is going to spend an appreciable amount of time becoming something of an expert on businesses, because that’s what stocks are, or the person who is going to be busy with another profession, wants to own equities, and actually will actually do very well in equities. But the real problem they have is that they may tend to get excited about stocks at the wrong time.但真正的区别——格雷厄姆在他的书中基本上是这么说的——在于一个人要花相当多的时间成为商业专家，因为这就是股票，或者一个人要忙于其他职业，想要拥有股票，并且实际上在股票投资上会做得非常好。但他们面临的真正问题是，他们可能倾向于在错误的时间对股票感到兴奋。
You know, they, really, the idea of buying an index fund over time is not to buy stocks at the right time or the right stocks. It’s to avoid buying them at the wrong time, the wrong stocks.你知道，长期来看，购买指数基金的理念并不是要在正确的时间买入正确的股票。而是要避免在错误的时间买入错误的股票。
So equities will do well over time, and you just have to avoid getting — you know, getting excited when other people are excited, or getting excited about certain industries when other people are, trying to behave like a professional when you aren’t spending the time and bringing what’s needed to the game to be a professional.所以，股票长期会表现良好，你只需要避免——你知道，在别人兴奋时你也兴奋，或者在别人对某些行业兴奋时你也兴奋，试图表现得像专业人士一样而你没有投入时间和带来成为专业人士所需的东西。
And if you’re an amateur investor, there’s nothing wrong with being an amateur investor, and you just simply — you’ve got a very logical, profitable course of action available to you, and that is simply to buy into American business in a broadly diversified way and put your money in over time.如果你是业余投资者，作为业余投资者并没有什么不好，你只需要——你有一个非常合理、有利可图的行动方案可供选择，那就是以广泛多元化的方式买入美国企业，并随着时间的推移投入你的资金。So I would say your group of 20 will probably match an index fund, and you’ll probably do well in that, and you will do well in an index fund.所以我会说你那20人的团队可能会与指数基金相匹配，你在那上面可能会做得很好，你在指数基金中也会做得很好。
查理？
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I have nothing to add. I do think it’s — that knowing the edge of your own competency is very important. If you think you know a lot more than you do, well, you’re really asking for a lot of trouble.查理·芒格：嗯，我没有什么要补充的。我确实认为——了解自己的能力范围是非常重要的。如果你认为自己知道的比你实际知道的多得多，那么，你真的是在自找麻烦。
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. And that’s true outside of investments, too.沃伦·巴菲特：是的。这在投资之外也是真的。
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes. Works particularly well in matrimony. (Laughter)查理·芒格：是的。在婚姻中尤其有效。（笑声）
WARREN BUFFETT: Do you want to give any other advice on that subject?沃伦·巴菲特：你还想在这个问题上给出其他建议吗？
查理·芒格：不。
WARREN BUFFETT: He gave it in the movie. I saw people taking notes.沃伦·巴菲特：他在电影里已经给出了。我看到人们在做笔记。
格雷厄姆是洞察人性的高手，确实是这样，在2020年末、2021年初，很多人包括我曾对股票感到兴奋，而这无疑是在错误的时间。
巴菲特非常精炼地总结了个股投资与指数投资的区别：进行个股选择，需要花相当多的时间成为商业专家；如果有正式的职业，而又想拥有股权，那么投资标普500指数就能获取不错的回报。
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