2015年伯克希尔股东会问答:
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Very exciting to see my superstars here. I’m Leo (inaudible) from China and a loyal fan of you and Charlie.
股东:很高兴在这里见到我的超级明星。我是Leo(听不清),来自中国,是你和Charlie的忠实粉丝。
Many Chinese investors feel all kinds of performance pressure, question, and even laughing, at value investing.许多中国投资者对价值投资感到各种各样的业绩压力,质疑,甚至嘲笑。
Many also believe that value investing, that doesn’t apply to China, where the stock market just doubled over the last six months.许多人还认为,价值投资并不适用于中国,中国股市在过去六个月里刚刚翻了一番。
I would like to ask Mr. Buffett, do you think value investment can be widely applied in all markets, or just the (inaudible) markets, just as the ones in the United States?我想问巴菲特先生,您认为价值投资可以广泛应用于所有市场,还是只应用于(听不清)市场,就像在美国一样?
Do you have any suggestions for value investors to hold against pressure and to be much happy? Thank you.对于价值型投资者,你有什么建议可以让他们顶住压力,获得更多的快乐吗?谢谢你!
WARREN BUFFETT: I’m not sure I got all of it, but Charlie will help me.沃伦·巴菲特:我不确定我是否得到了全部,但查理会帮助我的。
I certainly think investment principles do not stop at borders. So if I were investing in China or any place else — India, UK, Germany — I would apply exactly the same sort of principles that I learned from “The Intelligent Investor.”我当然认为投资原则不受国界限制。因此,如果我要在中国或其他任何地方投资——印度、英国、德国——我会运用我从《聪明的投资者》中学到的同样的原则。
I would think of stocks as a small piece of a business. I would think of investment fluctuations being there to benefit me, rather than to hurt me. And I would try to focus my attention on businesses where I thought I understood the competitive advantage they had and where they would — what they would — look like in five or ten years.我认为股票是企业的一小部分。我会认为投资波动对我有利,而不是伤害我。我会努力把注意力集中在那些我认为我了解它们的竞争优势的企业上,以及它们在5年或10年后的发展情况。
So I don’t think I would change the principles at all. I’m not sure I got all of the question.所以我认为我不会改变原则。我不确定我理解了所有的问题。
Maybe Charlie can elaborate on the rest.也许查理能详细解释一下其他的。
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, the Chinese have a history of being very entrepreneurial and gambling very heavily when they have the opportunity, and it has created great volatility in the Chinese stock markets.查理·芒格:中国人有非常具有创业精神的历史,一有机会就会大举赌博,这给中国股市带来了巨大的波动。
And when things get bouncy and prosperous, like our Internet craze here in the United States, China looks a lot like Silicon Valley.当事情变得有弹性和繁荣时,就像我们在美国的互联网热潮一样,中国看起来很像硅谷。
I think China would be way better to be more value investor minded and less absorbed in waves of speculation.我认为中国如果能更加注重价值投资,而不是那么沉迷于投机浪潮,将会好得多。
So I think the more China copies the way Berkshire operates, I think the better it will be for China. (Applause)所以我认为,中国对伯克希尔的经营方式模仿得越多,对中国就越有利。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. There’s a certain irony, in that we will — we would — do the best, over decades, if we operated in a market where people operated very foolishly.沃伦•巴菲特:是的。具有一定讽刺意味的是,如果我们在一个人们操作非常愚蠢的市场中运作,我们将——我们将——在未来几十年里做得最好。
And the more people respond to short term events and exaggerated things or — anything that causes people to get wildly enthusiastic or wildly depressed, actually, is what allows people to make lots of money in securities.人们对短期事件和夸大的事情做出的反应越多,或者任何让人们极度热情或极度沮丧的事情,实际上,就是让人们在证券中赚到很多钱的原因。
And, on the other hand, it’s not the greatest thing for a society. And Charlie and I have benefited enormously by the fact that over a 50-year period, there have been a few periods, probably the most extraordinary being 1973 and ’74, where you could buy stocks unbelievably cheap, cheaper than happened in 2008 and 2009.另一方面,这对一个社会来说并不是最好的事情。查理和我在过去50年里,从几个时期中获益匪浅,可能最不寻常的是1973年和1974年,那时你可以买到难以置信的便宜股票,比2008年和2009年发生的情况还要便宜。
And, you know, it doesn’t make sense to have that much volatility in the market, but humans behave the way humans behave, and they’re going to continue to behave that way in the next 50 years.而且,你知道,在市场上有这么大的波动是没有意义的,但人类的行为就是人类的行为,在未来的50年里,他们将继续以这种方式行事。
I mean, if you’re a young investor, and you can sort of stand back and value stocks as businesses and invest when things are very cheap, no matter what anybody is saying on television or what you’re reading, and perhaps, if you wish, sell when people get terribly enthused, it is really not a very tough intellectual game. It’s an easy game, if you can control your emotions.我的意思是,如果你是一个年轻的投资者,你可以站在后面,把股票当作生意来看待,在股价非常便宜的时候投资,不管电视上有人在说什么或你读到什么,并且也许,如果你愿意,在人们非常热情的时候卖出,这真的不是一个非常艰难的智力游戏。这是个简单的游戏,只要你能控制自己的情绪。
And as Charlie says, we’ve talked about a little bit that the Chinese market may be more — there may be more speculative influences in it, even than in the United States, because it’s a relatively new development and it may lend itself to greater extremes, and that should produce great opportunities. Charlie?正如查理所说,我们已经谈过一点,中国市场可能会有更多的投机影响,甚至比美国还要多,因为这是一个相对较新的发展,它可能会使自己走向更极端,这应该会产生巨大的机会。查理?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. But there’s great opportunities for excess and nasty contractions after unnatural booms and so on.查理·芒格:是的。但是,在非自然繁荣之后,很有可能出现过度和严重的收缩。
I think China is wise to dampen the speculative booms and to — and I think the Chinese — I don’t think that value investing will ever go out of style. Who in the hell doesn’t want value when you buy something? How can there be anything else that makes any sense except value investing?我认为中国明智的做法是抑制投机热潮——而且我认为中国人——我认为价值投资永远不会过时。当你买东西的时候,谁不想要价值呢?除了价值投资,还有什么有意义的呢?
WARREN BUFFETT: It never gets that popular though. (Laughs)沃伦•巴菲特:但它从来没有那么受欢迎。(笑)
CHARLIE MUNGER: People are looking for an easier way.查理·芒格:人们正在寻找一种更简单的方法。
沃伦•巴菲特:是的。
CHARLIE MUNGER: And that’s a mistake. It looks easier, but, in fact, it’s harder. And there’s a lot of misery to be obtained by misusing stocks.查理·芒格:这是一个错误。它看起来容易,但实际上更难。滥用股票会带来很多痛苦。
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Nobody buys a farm to make a lot of money next week or next month, or they buy, you know, an apartment house. They buy it based on what they think the long-term future is. And if they get a — if they make a reasoned calculation of that and the purchase price looks attractive, they buy it and then they don’t get a quote on it every day or every week or every month or even every year, and that’s probably a better way to look at stocks.沃伦•巴菲特:是的。没有人买农场是为了下周或下个月赚大钱,或者是买公寓。他们购买它是基于他们对长期未来的看法。如果他们做了一个合理的计算,购买价格看起来很有吸引力,他们就会买,然后他们不会每天,每周,每月,甚至每年都得到报价,这可能是一个更好的看待股票的方式。
格雷厄姆所提出的价值投资的三个基本原则是普适的,与在哪个市场无关。唯一需要满足的前提条件是,股票代表企业所有权的一部分,股东的权益受法律所保护。
在中国市场上,散户众多,投资情绪相对也更严重,长期而言这会消灭很多人的财富,但也会给真正坚持价值投资的人带来更多机会。
价值投资永远只是少数人的游戏,因为它违反人性。对于未知的事情,人类的大脑喜欢简单归因以节省脑力资源,它试图寻找一种更简单更快速的方法,比如总结一个神奇的公式、依靠某几个指标、甚至是看图形,而最重要的商业本身被有意或无意地遗忘了。
延伸阅读:
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