2012年伯克希尔股东会问答:12%的股权回报率能接受吗?

文摘   财经   2024-11-14 12:05   湖南  

2012年伯克希尔股东会问答:

CAROL LOOMIS: You're interested in businesses that throw off lots of cash, for instance, See's Candies, as well as those where you expect significant capital reinvestment needs, for example, Burlington Northern.

卡罗尔·卢米斯:你对那些产生大量现金的企业感兴趣,例如,See's Candies,以及那些你预计需要大量资本再投资的企业,例如,Burlington Northern。

What is it about a capital-consuming business that persuades you to forego the cash yield you seem to have historically preferred?

是什么让你放弃了历史上似乎更偏好的现金收益,转而选择资本密集型企业?

How do you balance the expected need for reinvestment in a capital-consuming business against the other possible uses of cash Berkshire may have in the future, such as new investments or stock repurchases?

你如何平衡资本密集型企业预期的再投资需求与伯克希尔未来可能的其他现金用途,例如新的投资或股票回购?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, cash-consuming businesses, by their nature, are unattractive unless the cash they consume gets to earn a reasonable return.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,资本密集型企业,就其本质而言,是不吸引人的,除非投入的现金能够获得合理的回报。

And, in the electric utility business, you know, we can expect, cash retained to perhaps earn an average of 12 percent or something like that, which we regard as quite satisfactory.

在电力公用事业领域,你知道,我们可以预期,保留的现金可能会平均获得大约12%的回报,我们认为这是相当令人满意的。

It's not as exciting as having some business that's going to grow 20 percent a year and not require any capital. I mean, there are a few wonderful businesses like that, but it's perfectly satisfactory.

这不像拥有一个每年增长20%且不需要任何资本的企业那样令人兴奋。我的意思是,确实有一些这样的绝佳企业,但这完全是可以接受的。

Same way with the railroad business. You know, we are going to invest a lot of capital over the next 10 years in railroads. Every year we will spend way more than depreciation charges. I think the prospect of earning reasonable returns on that are pretty darn good.

铁路业务也是如此。你知道,在未来10年里,我们将在铁路上投入大量资本。每年我们将花费的远远超过折旧费用。我认为在这些投资上获得合理回报的前景是非常好的。

But if I had to put a lot of money, you know, into some capital intensive business where all we were doing was staying alive with that money, you know, we would be in a terrible situation.

但如果我不得不投入大量资金,你知道,到一些资本密集型企业,而我们所做的一切只是为了用那些钱维持生存,那么我们就处于一个糟糕的境地。

And we don't have — in any meaningful way — we do not have any capital-consuming businesses where I see that as the prospect.

我们没有任何——以任何有意义的方式——我们没有任何资本密集型企业,我认为其前景是这样的。

It's true, if you go back to a world where we thought we could earn 20 percent on equity or something of the sort, then there's very few capital-consuming businesses where huge amounts of incremental capital can earn at a 20 percent rate.

这是事实,如果你回到一个我们认为可以在股权上赚取20%或类似的东西的世界,很少有资本密集型企业能够让巨额的增量资本获得20%的收益。

So that would be disadvantageous, but we don't know how to make 20 percent on equity going forth in the future with the kind of sums we're working with.

因此,这将是不利的,但我们不知道如何在未来获取20%的股权回报率,以我们正在处理的资金规模。

And we will be very happy if we can earn 12 percent or something like that on equity, particularly when some of that capital is being consumed is generated by float, which doesn't cost us anything. We've got some small advantage there.

如果我们能在股权上赚取12%或类似的回报,我们将非常高兴,特别是当其中一些资本消耗是由浮存金产生的,这不会花费我们任何东西。我们在这方面有一些小优势。

Charlie?

查理?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I think it's going to work pretty well. (Laughter)

查理·芒格:嗯,我认为这将会运作得很好。(笑)

There's some Mungers here. I hope you won't listen to the siren songs of others and kind of stay with the family heirloom.

这里有些芒格家族的人。我希望你们不会听从别人的海妖之歌,而是坚持家族的传家宝。

WARREN BUFFETT: My family is just hoping for an heirloom. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特:我的家族只是希望有一个传家宝。(笑)



解读:
巴菲特接受资本密集型业务12%的回报率,有两个原因:

1、他管理的资本规模过于庞大,没有那么多轻资产的业务可以投资;

2、这些投资的资金来自负成本的浮存金,这是伯克希尔的结构优势。
对于资金规模并不大的个人投资者,资本密集型业务并不是首选,投资者也绝不能满足于ROE为12%的标的,除非其在市场上由于不被投资者关注而出现错误定价,典型的例子就是牛市中的传统能源股、公用事业股,这些标的往往在熊市期间有更好的表现。

声明: 本文不构成投资建议


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