2016年伯克希尔股东会问答:不要嫉妒那些通过冒险行为赚钱的人

文摘   2024-12-11 20:00   湖南  

2016年伯克希尔股东会问答:

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, Warren. Hi, Warren and Charlie. Great to see you. This is Cora and Dan Chen from Taulguard Investments of Los Angeles.

股东:你好,沃伦。嗨,沃伦和查理。很高兴见到你。这是洛杉矶陶尔特投资公司的科拉和丹·陈。

This annual meeting reminds me of the magical world of Hogwarts, of Harry Potter. This arena is our Hogwarts. Warren, you are our Headmaster and Professor Dumbledore. (Laughter)

这次年会让我想起了霍格沃茨的魔法世界,哈利波特的魔法世界。这个竞技场就是我们的霍格沃茨。沃伦,你是我们的校长,也是邓布利多教授。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETT: I haven’t read Harry Potter, but I’ll take it as a compliment. (Laughter)

沃伦•巴菲特:我没有读过《哈利•波特》,但我认为这是一种恭维。(笑声)

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Charlie is our Headmaster Snape, direct, and full of integrity.

听众:查理是我们的校长斯内普,直率,正直。

The magic of long-term, concentrated, value investing is real, yet similar to Harry Potter, the rest of the world doesn’t believe we exist.

长期、集中、价值投资的魔力是真实存在的,但就像哈利波特一样,世界上的其他人不相信我们的存在。

Your letter to me has changed my life. Your “Secret Millionaire’s Club” has changed my children’s life. They go to class chatting about investing.

你给我的信改变了我的生活。你的“秘密百万富翁俱乐部”改变了我孩子们的生活。他们去上课讨论投资。

My question is for my children watching at home today and the children in the audience.

我的问题是为了今天在家观看的我的孩子们以及在场的孩子们。

How should they look at stocks, when every day in the media they see companies that have never made a dime in their life go IPO?

当他们每天在媒体上看到从未赚过一分钱的公司进行IPO时,他们该如何看待股票?

They’re dilutive and they see a lot of very short-term spin. The cycle is getting shorter and shorter.

他们正在稀释,他们看到了很多非常短期的旋转。周期越来越短。

How should they view stocks, and what’s your message for them?

他们应该如何看待股票?你想给他们传递什么信息?

Finally, Cora and I would love to thank you in person and shake your hand personally today. I’ll repeat what I said last year: thank you for putting — setting — the seeds for my generation to sit in the shade, and for my children’s generation to sit in the shade with the “Secret Millionaire’s Club.”

最后,科拉和我今天想亲自感谢你并亲自与你握手。我要重复我去年说过的话:感谢你们播下了种子,让我们这一代得以坐在树荫下,也让我们的孩子们得以和“秘密百万富翁俱乐部”一起坐在树荫下。

I truly walk amongst giants. Thank you.

我真的走在巨人中间。谢谢你!

WARREN BUFFETT: Would you mind repeating the whole thing? (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特:你介意重复一遍吗?(笑声)

“The Secret Millionaire’s Club,” we want to give great credit to Andy Heyward on that. I think it has helped — I know it’s helped — thousands and thousands of children and Andy — it was Andy’s idea — and it grows in strength.

“秘密百万富翁俱乐部”,我们要把它归功于安迪·海沃德。我认为它帮助了——我知道它帮助了——成千上万的孩子——这是安迪的主意——它越来越强大。

And having young children learn good lessons, in terms of handling money, and making friendships, and just generally behaving as better citizens is a great objective, and Andy makes it easy for them to do. So, on his behalf, I accept your comments.

让年幼的孩子们在理财、交友、做个好公民等方面学到好的东西是一个伟大的目标,安迪让他们很容易做到这一点。所以,我代表他,接受你的意见。

You don’t really have to worry about, you know, what’s going on in IPOs, or people making money.

你不需要担心IPO的情况,也不需要担心人们赚钱的情况。

People win lotteries every day, but there’s no reason to have that effect you at all. You shouldn’t be jealous about it.

每天都有人中彩票,但根本没有理由让它影响你。你不应该嫉妒。

I mean, you know, if they want to do mathematically unsound things, and one of them occasionally gets lucky, and they put the one person on television, and the million that contributed to the winnings, with the big slice taken out for the state, you know, don’t get on — it’s nothing to worry about.

我的意思是,你知道,如果他们想做一些数学上不合理的事情,其中一个偶尔会幸运,他们把一个人放在电视上,有一百万人贡献了奖金,其中大部分分给国家,你知道,不用担心——这没什么好担心的。

Just, all you have to do is figure out what makes sense. And you don’t — you look at buying — when you — when you buy a stock, you get yourself in the mental frame of mind that you’re buying a business, and if you don’t look at a quote on it for five years, that’s fine.

你所要做的就是找出其中的道理。当你买一只股票的时候,你会觉得你是在买一家公司,如果你五年都不看它的报价,那也没关系。

You don’t get a quote on your farm every day or every week or every month. You don’t get it on your apartment house, if you own one. If you own a McDonald’s franchise, you don’t get a quote every day.

你不会每天、每周或每个月都得到农场的报价。如果你有自己的公寓,你不会得到它。如果你拥有麦当劳的特许经营权,你不会每天都收到报价。

You know, you want to look at your stocks as businesses, and think about their performance as businesses. Think about what you pay for them, as you would think about buying a business.

你要把你的股票看成是企业,把它们的表现看成是企业。想想你为他们付了多少钱,就像你买一家公司一样。

And let the rest of the world go its own way. You don’t want to get into a stupid game just because it’s available.

让世界其他地方走自己的路。你不会因为一款愚蠢的游戏有销路就想去玩它。

And I’m going to say a little more about that close to the break. But with that, I’ll turn it over to Charlie.

在课间休息的时候我会再多说一点。说到这里,我把话筒交给查理。

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, well, I think that your children are right to look for people they can trust in dealing with stocks and bonds.

查理·芒格:是的,我认为你的孩子在处理股票和债券时寻找他们可以信任的人是正确的。

Unfortunately, more than half the time, they will fail, in a conventional answer. So you — they really have to — they have a hard problem. If you just listen to your elders, they’ll lie to you and make — spread — a lot of folly.

查理·芒格:是的,我认为你的孩子在处理股票和债券时寻找他们可以信任的人是正确的。

WARREN BUFFETT: But they really have an easy problem, in the sense that American business, as a whole, is going to do fine over time. So the only way they can —

沃伦·巴菲特:但他们确实有一个简单的问题,从某种意义上说,美国企业作为一个整体,随着时间的推移会做得很好。所以它们唯一能——

CHARLIE MUNGER: But not the average client of a stock broker.

查理·芒格:但不是股票经纪人的普通客户。

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we’ll get to that later. (Laughs)

沃伦•巴菲特:这个我们稍后再谈。(笑)

The stockbroker will do fine. The — (laughter)

股票经纪人会做得很好。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes, that’s true.

查理·芒格:是的,那是真的。

WARREN BUFFETT: But, they don’t have to do that and we can talk — I’d rather address that just a little later.

沃伦·巴菲特:但是,他们不必这样做,我们可以谈谈——我宁愿稍后再谈这个问题。

But — just — you don’t want to worry — you don’t want to be — a lot of problems are, as Charlie would say, are caused by envy. You don’t want to get envious of somebody who’s won the lottery, or bought an IPO that went up. You have to figure out what makes sense and follow your own course.

但是——只是——你不想担心——你不想成为——正如查理所说,很多问题都是由嫉妒引起的。你不应该嫉妒那些中了彩票的人,或者购买了上市首日就大涨的IPO股票的人。你必须弄清楚什么才是有意义的,并遵循你自己的道路。

解读:

芒格曾经说过,嫉妒是七宗罪里唯一一种没有给自己带来任何乐趣的罪行,人们应该远离这种情绪。

比起贪婪,嫉妒放大股票市场投机心理的能力更为强大,自己没赚到钱不可怕,可怕的是身边的人都赚钱了只有你没赚,这会导致严重的FOMO心理,因为害怕错过导致追涨。今年10月8日的市场表现就是最好的例子。
记住巴菲特的告诫,弄清楚什么是有意义的,走好自己的路。

声明: 本文不构成投资建议


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