2010年伯克希尔股东会问答：
ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: This question comes from Victor and Amy Liu (PH) who are shareholders from Santa Monica, California.
安德鲁·罗斯·索金：这个问题来自加利福尼亚州圣莫尼卡的股东维克多·刘（Victor）和艾米·刘（Amy Liu）。
And they ask, “When you made investments during the financial crisis in February of 2009, why did you lean towards debt instruments rather than equity?他们问：“你们在2009年2月金融危机期间进行投资时，为什么倾向于债务工具而不是股票？
“For example, why did you invest $300 million in Harley-Davidson at 15 percent interest instead of buying equity when the shares were at $12? Today, they’re at $33.“例如，在哈雷戴维森公司股价为 12 美元时，你们为什么以 15% 的利息向其投资 3 亿美元，而不是购买股票？如今的股价是 33 美元。
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I would say that if I were writing that question now, I might write the same question. But I’m not so sure you would have written the same question in February.沃伦·巴菲特：好吧，我想说，如果我现在写这个问题，我可能会写同样的问题。但我不确定你会在二月份写出同样的问题。
Now, there were different risk profiles, obviously, in investing. And the truth is, I don’t know whether Harley-Davidson equity is worth $33 or $20 or $45. I just have no view on that.现在，投资显然有不同的风险状况。而事实是，我不知道哈雷戴维森的股票值 33 美元、20 美元还是 45 美元。我对此没有任何看法。
You know, I kind of like a business where your customers tattoo your name on their chest or something. But — (laughter) — figuring out the economic value of that, you know. I’m not sure even going out and questioning those guys I’d learn much from them. (Laughter)你知道，我有点喜欢顾客把你的名字纹在胸前之类的生意。但是——（笑声）——你知道，要搞清楚这其中的经济价值。我不确定即使出去质问那些人，我也能从他们身上学到什么。（笑声）
But I do know, or I thought I knew, and I think I was right, that, A) Harley-Davidson was not going out of business. And that, B) 15 percent was going to look pretty damned attractive.但我知道，或者说我以为我知道，而且我认为我是对的，那就是：A）哈雷·戴维森不会倒闭。而且，B）15% 的利润看起来非常诱人。
And the truth is, we could probably sell those bonds, I don’t know, probably at 135 or something like that. So we could have a very substantial capital gain, a lot of income.而事实是，我们很可能以135或类似的价格出售这些债券。这样，我们就能获得非常可观的资本收益和大量收入。
I knew enough to lend them money; I didn’t know enough to buy the equity. And that’s frequently the case. And, you know, we love buying equities, but we love buying the Goldman preferred at 10 percent.我只知道借钱给他们，却不知道如何购买股权。这种情况经常发生。你知道，我们喜欢购买股票，但我们喜欢以 10% 的价格购买高盛优先股。
Now, let’s say Goldman, instead of offering me the 10 percent preferred and warrants had said, “You can have a 12 percent preferred, non-callable,” I might have taken that one instead. I mean, the callable — so there’s a tradeoff involved in all these securities.现在，假设高盛（Goldman）没有给我提供10%的优先股和认股权证，而是说：“你可以拥有12%的不可赎回优先股”，我可能会选择那个。我的意思是，可赎回的——所以在所有这些证券中都涉及到权衡。
And obviously, if I think I can make very good money, as we did on Harley-Davidson, with a very simple decision, just a question of, “Are they going to go broke or not?” as opposed to a tougher decision, “Is the motorcycle market going to get diminished significantly? And, you know, are the margins going to get squeezed somewhat?” And all of that. I’ll go with a simple decision.很显然，如果我认为我可以赚大钱，就像我们在哈雷戴维森上所做的那样，只需要做出一个非常简单的决定，只需要考虑 “他们会不会破产？”而不是做出一个更艰难的决定，"摩托车市场会不会大幅萎缩？利润会不会受到挤压？” 所有这些。我会选择一个简单的决定。
查理？
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, of course your one good answer, that you simply didn’t know enough to buy the stock but you did know enough to buy the bond, is a very good response.查理·芒格：当然，你的一个很好的回答是，你根本不知道该不该买股票，但你知道该不该买债券，这是一个非常好的回答。
The other side to that is, after all, we are a fiduciary for a lot of people, including people with permanent injuries and et cetera, et cetera. And to some extent, we are constrained by how aggressively we buy stocks versus something else. And you mix those together, why, you get our investment policy.但另一方面，我们毕竟是很多人的受托人，包括永久性受伤者等等。在某种程度上，我们购买股票的积极性会受到限制。如果把这些因素混在一起，我们的投资政策就出来了。
I think, generally speaking, you raise a very good question. I think very often, when you’re looking at a distress situation and buy the bonds, you should have bought the stock. So I think you’re looking in a promising area.我认为，一般来说，你提出了一个非常好的问题。我认为，很多时候，当你面临困境而购买债券时，你本应该购买股票。所以，我认为你在寻找一个有前景的领域。
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Ben Graham wrote about that in 1934, actually, in “Security Analysis,” that in the analysis of senior securities, the junior securities usually do better, but you may sleep better with the senior securities.沃伦·巴菲特：是的。本·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）在 1934 年的 “证券分析”（Security Analysis）一书中写道，在分析高级证券时，初级证券通常表现更好，但高级证券可能会让你睡得更好。
And we, as Charlie points out, we have 60 billion of liabilities to people in our insurance operation that, in some cases, extend out for 50 years or more.正如查理所指出的，我们在保险业务中对客户的负债高达 600 亿美元，有些甚至长达 50 年或更久。
And we would never have all of our money in stocks. I mean, we might have very significant amounts, but we are running this place so that it can stand anything.我们永远不会把所有的钱都投资在股票上。我的意思是，我们可能会有相当大的一部分资金投资在股票上，但我们经营这个地方是为了让它能够承受任何情况。
And a couple years ago, we felt very good about where that philosophy left us.几年前，我们对这一理念感到非常满意。
I mean, we actually could do things at a time when most people were paralyzed, and we’ll keep running it that way.我的意思是，我们实际上可以在大多数人束手无策的时候采取行动，而且我们将继续以这种方式运作。
细心的投资者可能已经发现，巴菲特经常投资优先股和公司债券，在价格合适的前提下，它们也能提供很高的收益，同时与股票相比风险更小，从法律上讲，优先股和债券的清偿权要高于普通股。
在巴菲特的眼中，避免资金永久性的损失，保持公司的永续经营永远是放在第一位的，有什么比夜夜安眠好呢?巴菲特说，自己不会把所有的钱投资在股票上，这样伯克希尔可以承受风险的侵袭，这其中主要是保险业务的承保损失，比如地震和飓风等巨灾险。我相信，巴菲特今年大笔卖出苹果公司股票，保持3000多亿美元的现金储备，一方面是因为股票市场本身高估，没有好的投资机会，另外也是为了加强伯克希尔的财务稳健性，同时也在为将来的投资机会储存子弹。如果你有负债，如果你想睡好觉，那不应该只追求更高的收益率，也要重视组合的安全性。而理论上，任何人都有负债：未来5年的开支和应急储备。因此，这部分资金需要与股票组合隔离开，换成更稳健的资产，比如现金、货币基金、债券基金等。声明: 本文不构成投资建议
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