2011年伯克希尔股东会问答：
CAROL LOOMIS: This question is from Mike Rifkin (PH). He wants to ask about five transactions you’ve made in recent years with very different terms.
卡罗尔·卢米斯：这个问题来自迈克·里夫金（PH）。他想问你近年来进行的五笔交易，这些交易的条件各不相同。
Goldman, 5 billion at 10 percent plus warrants; GE, five billion at ten percent plus warrants; Dow Chemical, 3 billion at 8.5 percent convertible to common; Wrigley- M&M Mars, 4.4 billion at 11.45; Swiss Re 2.7 billion at 12 percent.高盛，50亿美元，利率10%加上认股权证；通用电气，50亿美元，利率10%加上认股权证；陶氏化学，30亿美元，利率8.5%可转换为普通股；箭牌-M&M玛氏，44亿美元，利率11.45%；瑞士再保险，27亿美元，利率12%。
Now, why the different interest rates you set and how about why the warrants in some cases, and why did the rich Mars family need 4.4 billion to do a deal, and at 11.45 percent?现在，你设定的不同利率原因是什么？还有，为什么在某些情况下会有认股权证？为什么富有的玛氏家族需要44亿美元来完成交易，而且利率是11.45%？
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we’ll let the Mars family speak for themselves.沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，我们让玛氏家族自己来解释。
But in terms of comparing those five deals, it was 3 billion with GE, and the Mars deal actually involved a $2.1 billion preferred stock, which has some usual characteristics, so you have to look at it as a package.但是就比较这五笔交易而言，与通用电气的交易是30亿美元，而玛氏的交易实际上涉及21亿美元的优先股，这有一些不寻常的特点，所以你得把它看作一个整体。
But the important thing is that every one of these deals was done at a different time, although the Goldman and the GE deals were done in close proximity with each other.但重要的是，这些交易都是在不同的时间完成的，尽管高盛和通用电气的交易是彼此接近的时间完成的。
And market conditions — you know, you heard Charlie in the movie talk about opportunity costs. Our opportunity costs were different in every single one of those five transactions. And incidentally, we could have done a much better — I could have done a much better — job of allocating our money, you know, in terms of the post-panic period.市场条件——你知道，你在电影里听到查理谈论机会成本。在这五笔交易中，我们的机会成本都是不同的。顺便说一句，你知道，我本可以在恐慌后时期更好地分配我们的资金。
I was early on Goldman and GE, compared to the situation five months later. But, you know, we don’t have — we not only don’t have perfect foresight, sometimes it’s pretty bad.与5个月后的情况相比，我在高盛和通用电气方面起步较早。但是，你知道，我们没有——我们不仅没有完美的预见力，有时候它甚至是非常糟糕的。
But each deal — when I did the Swiss Re deal, I was not thinking about the Dow Chemical deal, which was committed to, maybe, a year-plus earlier. I was thinking about what else I could do with $2.7 billion, and that’s the way all the decisions are made.但是每一笔交易——当我做瑞士再保险的交易时，我并没有在想可能一年多前就承诺的陶氏化学交易。我在想我能用27亿美元做些什么，所有的决策都是这样做出来的。
So they are not related — they’re not related to each other. They go through a mind that is looking at everything available that day, including the amount of cash we have, the likelihood of being able to do something else next week or next month, what else we can do that day. And past deals we’ve made don’t really make any difference.所以它们之间没有关联——它们彼此之间没有关联。它们经过一个考虑当天所有可用选项的大脑，包括我们拥有的现金量，下周或下个月能否做其他事情的可能性，那天我们还能做些什么。而我们过去所做的交易实际上并没有什么影响。
In fact, one of the things — one of the errors people make in business — and sometimes it can be a huge error — is that they try and measure every deal against the best deal they’ve ever made.实际上，人们在商业中犯的一个错误——有时可能是一个巨大的错误——就是他们试图将每一笔交易与他们曾经做过的最好的交易进行比较。
So they say, you know, I made this wonderful deal for, maybe, an insurance policy written, or it might be a company bought, it might be a stock bought, and they’re determined that they’re never going to make a deal that isn’t that attractive in the future.所以他们会说，你知道，我曾经做过这样一笔很棒的交易，可能是写了一份保险单，或者是买了一家公司，或者是买了一只股票，他们决心将来再也不会做不如那笔交易吸引人的交易。
So they, in effect — sometimes they take themselves out of the game.所以他们实际上——有时他们会让自己退出游戏。
The goal is not to make a better deal than you’ve ever made before. The goal is to make a satisfactory deal that’s the best deal you can make at the time. And Charlie relates it to marriage, and I’ll let him expand on that. (Laughter)目标不是比你以往做过的任何交易都要做得更好。目标是在当时能够做出的最佳交易中做出一个令人满意的交易。查理将其与婚姻联系起来，我让他来进一步阐述这一点。（笑声）
CHARLIE MUNGER: No, those are — of course, we’re going to make different deals at different times based on different opportunity costs. There’s no other rational way to make deals.芒格: 查理·芒格：不，那些是——当然，我们会根据不同的机会成本在不同的时间做出不同的交易。没有其他合理的交易方式。
巴菲特建议投资者不要沉湎于过去最好的交易，实际上这也是站在“机会成本”的角度去思考，因为过去最好的交易未来不一定会发生。投资者需要务实地考虑当前或未来可能发生的投资机会。此外，为了保持复利，不要轻易让自己退出游戏。
![]()
延伸阅读：
戳![]()
关注，右上角菜单栏● ● ●键，设为星标
