2016年伯克希尔股东会问答:巴菲特谈石油价格

文摘   财经   2024-12-13 12:06   湖南  

2016年伯克希尔股东会问答:

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is Marcus Douglas. I’m an investment advisor from Houston, Texas.

股东:下午好,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我叫马库斯·道格拉斯。我是来自德克萨斯州休斯顿的投资顾问。

Where I’m from, there are a lot of people losing their jobs, mostly due to the sharp decline of crude oil prices. My question pertains to the overall state of the union, more so than my dear city.

在我的家乡,有很多人失去了工作,主要是因为原油价格的急剧下跌。我的问题是关于联邦的整体状况,而不是我亲爱的城市。

Keeping in mind that crude oil is primarily bought and sold in American dollars, do either of you believe the major fluctuations in the supply of crude oil influence the future monetary policy decisions?

请记住,原油主要以美元买卖,你们认为原油供应的大幅波动会影响未来的货币政策决定吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that’s yours, Charlie.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,那是你的了,查理。

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, my answer would be, not much.

查理·芒格:嗯,我的答案是,没有太多。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, it’s an important industry, obviously. And the decline in the price of oil has had a lot of effects, very good for the consumer, millions and — well, hundreds and millions of consumers — and very bad for certain of the businesses, like the one we bought in Lubrizol, and some others, to a degree.

沃伦•巴菲特:是的,这显然是一个重要的行业。石油价格的下跌产生了很多影响,对数以百万计的消费者来说是好事,对某些企业来说是坏事,就像我们在路博润收购的公司,以及其他一些公司。

You know — net, it should be good for the United States, overall, to have low prices for oil. We’re a net oil importer. I mean, just like it’s good for the United States to have low prices for bananas. We’re a banana importer.

你知道,总的来说,低油价对美国应该是有利的。我们是石油净进口国。我的意思是,就像香蕉价格低对美国有好处一样。我们是香蕉进口商。

Anything we net buy is a plus when prices fall, but oil is big enough, and extends into so many areas, that it also hurts, plenty, when the price of oil falls, and it particularly hurts capital values.

当价格下跌时,对我们净购买的任何东西都是有利的,但石油产业规模庞大,涉及领域众多,因此当石油价格下跌时,它也会造成很大的伤害,尤其是对资本价值的伤害。

So the value — the consumer gets the benefit when he or she goes to the filling station, you know, every two or three weeks, or something like that, and it comes in relatively small increments.

所以,价值——消费者在每两到三周或类似时间间隔去加油站时会得到好处,并且这种好处以相对较小的增量体现出来。

The capital value contraction, which is huge, if you project out lower-price oil for a while, you know, hits immediately. I mean, an oil field that was worth X may be worth half X, or a third of X, or no X, overnight.

资本价值的收缩,是巨大的,如果你预计油价会持续一段时间,你知道,它会立即出现。我的意思是,一个价值X的油田一夜之间可能只值一半X,或者三分之一X,或者没有X。

And so, there’s certain big factors — well, in terms of our chemical operation, people just stop ordering.

因此,有一些重大因素——嗯,就我们的化工业务而言,人们只是停止下单。

So you have this big impact on capital values immediately, and you have the benefits move in over time. But net, the United States is better off, and Saudi Arabia is worse off, when prices of oil are lower.

因此,资本价值会立即受到巨大影响,而且随着时间的推移,你会看到好处逐渐显现。但总的来说,当石油价格较低时,美国的情况会更好,沙特阿拉伯的情况会更糟。

Oil is a big part of the economy, but our economy has continued to make progress, overall, during the oil price decline.

石油是经济的重要组成部分,但总体而言,在油价下跌期间,我们的经济仍在继续取得进展。

But obviously, different regions suffer disproportionately, just like they boomed — you know, they got a real boom in — during the period when it was at $100, and when trucking came in big time. Charlie?

但很明显,不同地区受到的影响是不成比例的,就像它们的繁荣一样——你知道,它们真正的繁荣是在——油价在100美元的时候,当时卡车运输非常发达。查理?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I think that that will do it for this subject.

芒格:嗯,我想这门课就讲到这里了。

解读:

你会重仓石油股吗,比如雪球大V们都看好的某个低成本石油生产企业?

请注意,巴菲特说,石油价格的变化可能一夜之间就让油田的价值减半,甚至变得一文不值。
我的观点倾向于保守,石油价格不可预测,石油企业的资本开支也很大,个人投资者不应该重仓石油股。
即便真的想投资,真正的机会一定是在石油价格低迷,所有投资者都感到恐慌想要抛售,而股票买家寥寥时。这时资产才会以折价出售。
大家都看好时,也许这是一个好机会,但也可能是集体的误判。远离人多的地方,你可能会少赚那些冒着永久性资本损失风险带来的收益,但也可以避免严重的损失。

声明: 本文不构成投资建议


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