2016年伯克希尔股东会问答:
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is Marcus Douglas. I’m an investment advisor from Houston, Texas.
Where I’m from, there are a lot of people losing their jobs, mostly due to the sharp decline of crude oil prices. My question pertains to the overall state of the union, more so than my dear city.
Keeping in mind that crude oil is primarily bought and sold in American dollars, do either of you believe the major fluctuations in the supply of crude oil influence the future monetary policy decisions?
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that’s yours, Charlie.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, my answer would be, not much.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, it’s an important industry, obviously. And the decline in the price of oil has had a lot of effects, very good for the consumer, millions and — well, hundreds and millions of consumers — and very bad for certain of the businesses, like the one we bought in Lubrizol, and some others, to a degree.
You know — net, it should be good for the United States, overall, to have low prices for oil. We’re a net oil importer. I mean, just like it’s good for the United States to have low prices for bananas. We’re a banana importer.
Anything we net buy is a plus when prices fall, but oil is big enough, and extends into so many areas, that it also hurts, plenty, when the price of oil falls, and it particularly hurts capital values.
So the value — the consumer gets the benefit when he or she goes to the filling station, you know, every two or three weeks, or something like that, and it comes in relatively small increments.
The capital value contraction, which is huge, if you project out lower-price oil for a while, you know, hits immediately. I mean, an oil field that was worth X may be worth half X, or a third of X, or no X, overnight.
And so, there’s certain big factors — well, in terms of our chemical operation, people just stop ordering.
So you have this big impact on capital values immediately, and you have the benefits move in over time. But net, the United States is better off, and Saudi Arabia is worse off, when prices of oil are lower.
Oil is a big part of the economy, but our economy has continued to make progress, overall, during the oil price decline.
But obviously, different regions suffer disproportionately, just like they boomed — you know, they got a real boom in — during the period when it was at $100, and when trucking came in big time. Charlie?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I think that that will do it for this subject.
你会重仓石油股吗,比如雪球大V们都看好的某个低成本石油生产企业?
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