哈里斯能赢吗？
文章说如果不是拜登固执到现在才退选，造成民主党没有充分时间进行党内初选，哈里斯未必能够成为总统候选人。因为，哈里斯作为副总统，对于这届政府的通货膨胀、移民问题、以及犯罪率上升（共和党攻击）背负责任，而且，哈里斯以往也没有显示其领导力。
拜登退选，哈里斯作为第一位竞选总统的黑人及南亚裔女性，让她成为美国梦的有力象征。而且特朗普是历史上最年长的候选人。文章指出在拜登退选36小时内，哈里斯成功的击败了潜在竞争对手，一天筹款8100万美金，让民主党在她身上看到了希望。23日，在共和党召开全国代表大会的宾夕法尼亚密尔沃基的首次集会上，哈里斯演讲充满活力，现场气氛高涨，也表明她已经不是四年前那个笨拙且难以信服的候选人。
哈里斯是否能够赢得这场选举，文章认为需直面三大政治任务。第一，需要清楚阐明作为总统的基础理念，而不仅仅是福利许诺。她可以告诉选民，拜登任内完成的，美国有史以来最重要的气候立法的伟大意义；同时，不同于拜登，必须承认选民在通货膨胀下确实面对现实的困难；对于南部边界非法移民，她应该采取切实有效的强硬措施；为女性自主生育权发声（堕胎问题）同时避免跌入共和党的陷阱；应该明确承认跨性别女性在竞技女子体育里比女性拥有的优势是不公平的。
第二，作为曾经检察官，仅仅抨击特朗普是重犯是不够的，而是要强有力的证明自己有能够捍卫美国价值观；在打击暴力和街头犯罪问题上，要有说服力的反驳对民主党软弱的指责；强调尊重司法独立，而特朗普让行政系统的司法部打击敌人，践踏司法独立；支持美国守护全球规则，而不是特郎普一样秀肌肉。事实上，扎根原则才能增强实力。
第三，能够给美国带来希望。若仅兜售若特朗普当选的末日景象是不让选民信服的，应该乐观和幽默的看待对手，事实上特朗普很容易受到嘲笑，因为他易怒、阴沉、复仇心切。
哈里斯首先面临的重大决定就是副总统人选，认为提到了口才出众的宾夕法尼亚州长乔希·夏皮罗（Josh Shapiro）和参议员、前宇航员、容易激怒特朗普的马克·凯利（Mark Kelly）都是合适人选。文章指出，相比于哈里斯的仓促上阵，特朗普躲过了一次暗杀，在共和党内有不可动摇的影响力。提及共和党代表大会特朗普的提名胜选演讲，说“漫无边际，心胸狭窄”，断言“他很容易被击败”。
最后说“ 在世界和美利坚充满危险的时刻， 一场真正的竞选值得期待。”
（原文）
CAN SHE WIN？
The phoney campaign has ended. The real battle for the White House will be between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, and it has only just begun. When Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy on July 21st, Mr Trump was in a commanding position. With a bit over 100 days to turn around his lead, Ms Harris still has enough time to win the presidency. The question is whether she has the ability.
Her task is to make the election a referendum on Mr Trump, who is unpopular outside his devoted maga base. If, instead, the election is about the record of the Biden administration and her part in it, she is likely to lose. But for Ms Harris to turn the spotlight onto Mr Trump, she must also satisfy voters that she is equal to the job of president. Mr Biden’s campaign was doomed because his infirmity kept the focus on him. Despite numerous appearances, he could not dispel the image of a stumbling, befuddled old man unfit to serve a second full term.
The upshot is a race to define Ms Harris. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Mr Trump has plenty of damning material to work with. As a former attorney-general of California, she is linked to the homelessness, drugs and crime of cities such as San Francisco. A west coast centrist is not a centrist in the battleground states she must win. She had a disastrous run in the presidential primaries last time round, dropping out early, having taken leftish positions on subsidising rent and banning fracking. As Mr Biden’s vice-president, she is lumbered with his record on inflation, immigration and (in Republican eyes) crime.
All along, she has struggled in speeches and interviews. Reportedly, some Biden allies sought to stop Democrats deserting the president by privately warning that she could take his place—as if that were a threat. What, then, can Ms Harris do? Her chances of success rest on one enormous piece of luck and three tests of her political instincts.
The luck was Mr Biden’s obstinacy. Had he given way sooner, the party could have held an open primary and Ms Harris might have lost. As it was, she saw off her potential rivals within 36 hours. After Mr Biden’s epic stall, that reflected the party’s wish to move on. She inherited a ready-made campaign and its cash. A day of record fundraising revealed Democrats’ relief at their new, younger candidate. Simply by being 59, she has turned the issue of age, which devastated Mr Biden, back onto Mr Trump, who is now the oldest nominee in history.
But luck will not be enough. To win, Ms Harris must also pass those political tests. The first is to articulate the convictions that will be the foundation for her presidency, without lapsing into promises to hand out welfare cheques. Her identity as the first black and South Asian woman to run for president could, if handled right, make her a compelling symbol of the American dream. Rather than letting progressives pull her to the left, she should back pragmatic policies that serve ordinary Americans. Mr Trump, she can say, is out to serve himself.
This will mean touting the accomplishments of Mr Biden’s presidency more effectively than he could—in particular, America’s most significant climate legislation ever. But it also means facing up to the Biden administration’s poor record on immigration with the help of a tough plan for the southern border. In contrast to Mr Biden, she must acknowledge voters’ struggle with inflation. She should continue to speak out strongly for women’s reproductive rights, a winning issue—and that involves being aware of Republican traps claiming that this means the unrestricted abortions late in pregnancy which most Americans reject. When pressed, as she will be, she should make clear that she thinks trans women have an unfair advantage in competitive women’s sports.
Ms Harris’s second test is what she makes of having been a prosecutor and a state attorney-general. She may be tempted simply to bash away at Mr Trump as a convicted felon. Instead she should also use her experience as the foundation for a broad argument that she can be trusted to defend American values at home and abroad.
This starts with the rule of law, including in tackling violence and street crime, so as to counter the accusation that Democrats are soft on both. She could contrast her support of an independent legal system with Mr Trump’s plan to deploy the Department of Justice against his foes. And she should endorse America’s global role as the guardian of norms and rules. Mr Trump has a real-estate tycoon’s view of strength as simply muscle; in fact, strength is enhanced by being rooted in principle.
Ms Harris’s third test is to offer America hope. In a vicious election powered by fear and loathing, she may be tempted to peddle apocalyptic visions of a second Trump term. Better to use humour and optimism. Like any bully, her opponent is vulnerable to mockery. An upbeat Ms Harris looking to the future will do well against a sullen, vengeful Mr Trump enraged about the past.
Encouragingly, her first official rally, in Milwaukee on July 23rd, was fizzing with enthusiasm. This was not the awkward, unconvincing candidate of four years ago. After Mr Biden’s halting delivery, her words were full of vitality.
But Ms Harris is the underdog. Her first big decision—her vice-president—is a chance to catch up and plant her campaign in the centre ground. Josh Shapiro, the eloquent governor of Pennsylvania, could help in a must-win state. Mark Kelly, a senator from Arizona, another battleground state, would also add to the ticket—and it would rile Mr Trump to face an ex-astronaut. Be warned, however: Ms Harris is running a rushed operation. If her campaign starts to go awry, recriminations about her uncontested nomination will soon follow.
By contrast, Mr Trump, having survived an assassination attempt, enjoys an unshakable hold on his party. And yet his campaign’s attempt to redefine him as a unity candidate at the Republican convention crumbled with his rambling and mean-spirited acceptance speech. That makes him beatable.
After months of desultory campaigning, Americans have a race on their hands, and a good thing too. At a perilous time for their country and the world, they deserve a real contest.
《经济学人》（The Economist）是一份国际知名的周刊杂志，1843年由詹姆斯· 威尔逊(James Wilson)在英国创立。它以其深度报道、详细分析和广泛覆盖的全球新闻和经济评论著称。
