综合CNN 消息，视频取自抖音（TikTok）。哈里斯周二在亚特兰大（Atlanta ）的集会，有 10,000 名佐治亚州人（Georgians）参加了此次集会。哈里斯通过 TikTok分享了一段视频，与她竞选团队的最新盟友之一、格莱美奖得主梅根·西·斯塔莉安 (Megan Thee Stallion) 分享了这段视频。
梅根·西·斯塔莉安（Megan Thee Stallion），95年出生，非裔美国人，是美国著名说唱歌手和词曲作者。她以其强劲的说唱风格和女性赋权主题而闻名，代表作包《Savage》和《WAP》。她在2019年发布的首张专辑《Fever》广受好评，并赢得了多项音乐大奖。梅根也是一位倡导女性独立和自信的积极分子。⬇️请欣赏（取自IG）
By Valerie Wirtschafter and Derek Belle
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-does-the-2024-election-mean-for-the-future-of-ai-governance/
张口注：这篇研究文章共四节。节选前言第一段；最后一节“期待”（Looking forward），略去最后一段。在第二，三节作者分别回顾总结了特朗普第一任期，拜登任期的一些具体做法，包括立法和行政手段。节选部分包含对中国政策的差异。作者认为，若特朗普上台， 将终结该领域拜登政府的接触策略。
作为有史以来最具变革性的技术之一，人工智能 (AI) 可能会重塑社会的几乎每个方面。虽然我们远未看到人工智能的全部能力，但现在建立的护栏将影响这项技术如何塑造工作和生产力、民主、战争与和平以及未来的更多事物。
As one of the most transformative technologies ever created, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to reshape nearly every facet of society. While we are far from seeing AI’s full capabilities, the guardrails put in place now will influence how this technology shapes work and productivity, democracy, war and peace, and much more moving forward.
大选后（Looking forward）
相比之下，特朗普已誓言要“上任第一天”撤销拜登的行政令，共和党政纲也将废除该行政令，代之以支持“植根于言论自由和人类繁荣的人工智能发展”的规定。这与保守派研究人员、评论员和政策制定者的强烈反对相一致，他们抨击该行政令滥用《国防生产法》，将通过不必要的监管扼杀创新。撤销该行政令的最显著影响将是终结前沿模型开发商和云服务提供商的报告制度。对于开发或提供最强大、潜在最危险的人工智能系统资源的公司来说，这些要求是唯一具有法律约束力的透明机制之一，取消这些要求将对前沿人工智能护栏运动造成巨大打击。
Trump, by contrast, has vowed to rescind the Biden EO “on day one” and the Republican Party platform would repeal the EO and replace it with something that supports “AI Development rooted in Free Speech and Human Flourishing.” This aligns with a backlash among conservative researchers, commentators, and policymakers, who have railed against the EO as an abuse of the Defense Production Act that will stifle innovation through unnecessary regulation. The most significant effect of rescinding the EO would be the end of the reporting regime for frontier model developers and cloud service providers. These requirements are one of the only legally binding transparency mechanisms for companies that develop or provide resources for the most powerful, and potentially dangerous, AI systems, and their removal would be a huge blow to the movement for guardrails on frontier AI.
2023年ChatGPT问世后，美国国会AI相关法案提案快速上升
尽管拜登政府在新兴技术和出口管制问题上与中国存在公开对抗，但两国仍在共同关心的关键领域展开对话，这体现在两国在气候和人工智能方面的双边交流、推动讨论降低核风险，以及与中国一起参加英国人工智能安全峰会并签署《布莱切利宣言》。在哈里斯可能担任总统的领导下，这些努力可能会继续下去。
Despite open confrontation with China on emerging technologies and export controls, the Biden administration has engaged in dialogue on key areas of mutual concern, as evidenced by its bilateral exchanges on the climate and AI, its push to discuss nuclear risk reduction, and its participation with China in the U.K.’s AI Safety Summit and the resulting Bletchley Declaration. Under a potential Harris presidency, it is likely these efforts will continue.
特朗普政府开启了与北京的外交关系发生重大转变，特朗普明确表示他仍然坚决反对中国，而美国传统基金会的评论员则认为，与中国在人工智能领域合作会增强对手的力量，从而损害美国的技术领先地位。鉴于这种批评以及美国保守派对中国的更广泛言论，很难想象外交关系会持续不间断。更难想象美国和中国在管理先进人工智能系统方面达成共同规则和原则，而这些领域显然存在避免意外升级的共同利益。
The Trump administration oversaw a dramatic shift in diplomatic engagements with Beijing, Trump has made clear he remains firm in his opposition to China, and commentators at the Heritage Foundation have argued that working with China on AI empowers an adversary to the detriment of U.S. technological leadership. Given this criticism and U.S. conservatives’ broader rhetorical tenor against China, it is hard to imagine track one diplomatic engagement continuing uninterrupted. It is even harder to imagine agreement between the United States and China on shared rules and principles governing advanced AI systems beyond areas where there is a clear mutual interest in avoiding inadvertent escalation.
抑制中国科技产业和确保美国在强大人工智能系统开发方面的领导地位的双重目标揭示了特朗普更广泛的科技议程中的明显矛盾：对中国的敌意、在 TikTok 上投机取巧的政策转变、对大型科技公司审查制度的蔑视以及与硅谷部分地区的密切关系。当今许多前沿人工智能模型的领先开发商正是特朗普认为冤枉他的公司，保守派议员批评这些公司在数字市场上施加了太多权力并压制保守派言论。削弱这些公司可能会损害美国引导前沿模型开发的能力。特朗普政府如何协调这些相互竞争的优先事项仍不得而知，不过一些科技领袖押注这将对他们有利。
The dual objectives of stifling China’s tech industry and ensuring American leadership in the development of powerful AI systems reveal clear contradictions in Trump’s broader tech agenda: antagonism toward China, an opportunistic policy shift on TikTok, and a disdain for Big Tech censorship accompanied by a cozy relationship with some parts of Silicon Valley. Many of the leading developers of frontier AI models today are the same companies that Trump believes have wronged him and that conservative lawmakers criticize for exerting too much power in digital markets and silencing conservative speech. Undercutting those companies may harm America’s ability to guide the development of frontier models. How the Trump administration reconciles these competing priorities is anyone’s guess, though several tech leaders are betting it will net out in their favor.
然而，在几个领域，我们反而可能会期待延续。对先进半导体制造设备的出口管制始于特朗普政府时期，并在拜登政府时期加速。有迹象表明，哈里斯可能会在新政府中继续采取这种有针对性的做法；然而，她过去一直批评特朗普的关税。特朗普曾表示，他将对中国商品征收超过 60% 的关税，特朗普第二届政府可能会对与中国的贸易采取更为激进的姿态。因此，这种限制可能会继续或收紧。重要的是，半导体出口管制制度的实施在一定程度上取决于盟友的遵守情况——尤其是荷兰和日本。在更具交易性的“美国优先”外交政策下，特朗普政府可能难以维持控制半导体供应链关键瓶颈的关键合作伙伴的支持。这可能会使阻止中国在人工智能和军事方面的进步变得更加困难。
There are, however, several areas where we might instead expect continuity. Export controls on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment began under the Trump administration and accelerated under the Biden administration. There is some indication that Harris could continue this targeted approach in a new administration; however, she has been critical of Trump’s tariffs in the past. Trump has said that he would impose a tariff of greater than 60% on Chinese goods, and a second Trump administration would likely take an even more aggressive posture on trade with China. As a result, this type of restriction is likely to continue or be tightened. Importantly, the implementation of the export control regime for semiconductors depends, in part, on compliance from allies—in particular the Netherlands and Japan. Under a more transactional “America First” foreign policy, the Trump administration may struggle to maintain support from key partners who control vital chokepoints in the semiconductor supply chain. This could make it even more difficult to thwart China’s AI and military progress.
如果特朗普赢得第二任期，可能会继续关注人工智能安全的极端危害（例如生物技术），而较少关注人工智能对公民权利的影响。拜登政府人工智能政策的一个重点是该技术对工人、边缘化社区和其他特别容易受到变革性技术破坏的群体的影响。在布莱切利峰会前的讲话中，哈里斯拒绝了对生存风险的狭隘关注，并指出对个人权利和福祉的损害“也会让受影响的人感到生存”。鉴于第一届特朗普政府和共和党普遍强烈的放松管制倾向，再加上特朗普对多样性、公平、包容和“觉醒”等理念的敌意，这些挑战可能会在特朗普第二届政府的人工智能政策中被降低优先级。
Should Trump win a second term in office, we are also likely to see a continued focus on extreme harms of AI safety (e.g., biotech), but less of a focus on AI’s impact on civil rights. A key focus of the Biden administration’s AI policy has been the impact of the technology on workers, marginalized communities, and other groups that are particularly vulnerable to disruption from transformative technologies. In her address ahead of the Bletchley Summit, Harris rejected a narrow focus on existential risk, remarking that harms to individual rights and well-being “also feel existential” to those they affect. Given the strong deregulatory bent of the first Trump administration and the Republican Party more broadly, coupled with Trump’s hostility toward ideas like diversity, equity, and inclusion and “wokeness,” these challenges may be deprioritized as part of a second Trump administration’s AI policy.
