2024年8月10日周六 美国大选AI日志 第二十七篇
距离投票日87天
关于电视辩论（综合路透社和美联社消息）
美国共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)和他的民主党竞选对手、美国副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)同意9月10日在美国广播公司(ABC)举行一场辩论。这将是两位候选人之间的首次辩论。
特朗普星期四(8月8日)在佛罗里达州棕榈滩住所举行的新闻发布会上表示，他希望在9月4日和9月25日分别在福克斯新闻(Fox News)频道和在美国全国广播公司(NBC)再举行两场电视辩论。但是尚未获得最终确认
原载《经济学人》2024年8月10日封面文章
放缓的经济会影响大选结果吗？
Will America’s economy swing the election?
It is not entering recession, but it is slowing down. That is bad news for Kamala Harris
没有一个美国选民将美国经济繁荣归功于拜登政府。他们会因为卡马拉·哈里斯的失败而惩罚她吗？在以令富裕国家羡慕的速度增长后，美国经济现在似乎正在放缓。投资者担心经济衰退即将来临。8 月 2 日，在制造商调查结果令人失望以及失业救济金申请人数增加之后，他们对该国 7 月份失业率升至 4.3% 的消息感到恐慌，这是自 2021 年以来的最高水平。8 月 5 日，全球股市暴跌，第二天才略有收复失地。
AMERICA’S VOTERS have not given credit to the Biden White House for their country’s economic boom. Will they punish Kamala Harris for a bust? After growing at rates that were the envy of the rich world, the American economy now seems to be slowing. Investors are worried that a recession is just around the corner. On August 2nd, following a disappointing survey of manufacturers and a rise in claims for jobless benefits, they took fright at the news that the country’s unemployment rate had risen to 4.3% in July, its highest since 2021. On August 5th stockmarkets slumped worldwide, before recovering a little lost ground the next day.
经济状况并不能决定美国的选举结果，但它却很重要。未来 90 天的经济状况将影响现任民主党人在 11 月总统大选中获胜的机会。经济全面衰退可能意味着哈里斯的厄运。但即使经济只是在降温（很可能如此），也可能损害她并帮助唐纳德·特朗普。
The economy does not determine elections in America, but it is important. Its course over the next 90 days will weigh on the incumbent Democrats’ chances in November’s presidential election. An outright recession would probably spell doom for Ms Harris. But even if the economy is only cooling, as is likely, it could harm her and help Donald Trump.
美国真的处于衰退边缘吗？美国一些经济指标不太好。失业率已从近期低点大幅上升，过去这一趋势往往预示着经济衰退。经验法则表明，考虑到目前的经济状况，利率可能高出一到两个百分点。事实上，由于预期经济疲软和美联储大幅降息，长期美国国债收益率已低于短期债券收益率。
Is America really on the brink of recession? Some indicators look ominous for America’s economy. The unemployment rate has risen significantly from its recent lows, a move that has often signalled recessions in the past. Rules of thumb suggest that, given the state of the economy, interest rates are probably one to two percentage points too high. Indeed, yields on long-term Treasuries have fallen below those on short-term bonds, in anticipation of a weakening economy and steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
然而，从大多数指标来看，美国似乎没有经历经济紧急着陆，而是在逐渐放缓。自 2023 年 4 月失业率降至最低以来，高利率逐渐冷却了劳动力市场。这反过来又抑制了工资增长，削弱了购物者的信心。一些面向消费者的公司，如麦当劳，报告的销售额令人失望。但其他公司的表现要好得多，国内生产总值仍在扩大。今年第二季度，美国国内生产总值年化增长率为 2.8%，高于长期趋势。本季度经济增长预期轻松超过 2%。餐厅预订、航空旅行和税收都表明经济增长继续强劲。
Yet by most measures America seems to be experiencing not a crash landing but a gradual slowdown. High interest rates have gradually cooled the labour market since the unemployment rate reached its lowest in April 2023. That in turn has suppressed the growth in wages and dented shoppers’ confidence. Some consumer-facing companies, such as McDonald’s, have reported disappointing sales. But others have done much better and gdp is still expanding. In the second quarter of the year it grew at an annualised pace of 2.8%, which is above its long-term trend. Estimates of economic growth in the current quarter stand comfortably above 2%. Restaurant bookings, air travel and tax collections all suggest that growth continues to be strong.
此外，较低的长期利率已经为经济注入了一剂预防性的强心剂——随着本周投资者纷纷涌入债券市场，这种作用变得更加强大。对银行的调查显示信贷条件有所缓和。美联储需要在 9 月份下调政策利率，以满足投资者的预期，但这只是形式而已。抵押贷款和信用卡债务的利率正在预期下降。
Moreover, lower long-term interest rates are already giving the economy a prophylactic shot in the arm—and it has become more powerful as skittish investors have rushed into bonds this week. Surveys of banks show some easing in credit conditions. The Fed will need to cut its policy interest rate in September in order to fulfil investors’ expectations, but that is a formality. Rates on mortgages and credit-card debt are falling in anticipation.
那么，经济放缓而非衰退的政治后果又会怎样呢？哈里斯仍然面临一个问题。即使选民否认民主党对经济繁荣有任何贡献，但如果经济失去动力，他们仍可能会责怪她。
What, then, of the political consequences of a slowdown but not a recession? Ms Harris still has a problem. Even if voters deny Democrats any credit for the economic boom, they may nonetheless blame her if the economy loses steam.
从表面上看，哈里斯应该能够利用拜登政府的经济记录来竞选。工人的实际收入中位数比 2016 年美国人投票时高出 9.4%。即使是没有高中文凭的男性，失业率也只有 5.1%。正如我们本周报道的那样，宾夕法尼亚州等摇摆州的通胀率和失业率大多低于全国平均水平。考虑到所有这些，特朗普的保护主义竞选搭档 JD Vance 抱怨美国牺牲了就业机会来进口“山寨烤面包机”是荒谬的。
On the face of it, Ms Harris should be able to campaign on the Biden administration’s economic record. Workers’ median real earnings are 9.4% higher than when Americans went to the polls in 2016. Even among men without a high-school diploma, the unemployment rate is only 5.1%. As we report this week, swing states such as Pennsylvania have enjoyed mostly lower inflation and unemployment than the national average. Given all that, the complaint of J.D. Vance, Mr Trump’s protectionist running-mate, that America has sacrificed jobs to import “knockoff toasters” is nonsensical.
共和党人对经济的看法受到政治倾向的扭曲，民主党人的看法则相反。但总体而言，选民对民主党经济管理的评价比特朗普更差，原因之一可能是他们每次购物时都会被价格吓到。即使通胀率正在下降，价格也比拜登上任时高出近 20%。
Republicans’ perceptions of the economy are warped by their politics—as are Democrats’ in the other direction. But voters as a whole give the Democrats’ economic management a worse rating than Mr Trump’s and one reason may be because every time they go shopping, they suffer sticker-shock. Even if inflation is falling, prices are nearly 20% higher than when Mr Biden entered office.
今天的股市动荡不太可能使情况变得更糟。它们也不应如此——即使特朗普以可预见的夸张语气将其称为“卡马拉崩盘”。当我们发表这篇文章时，标准普尔500 指数比峰值低 8%，但股市已经到了需要调整的时候了，因为它的定价相对于公司的收益来说太高了。该指数今年仍上涨了 9%，美国公司的平均利润超过了预期。最大的跌幅不是发生在华尔街，而是在日本。
Today’s bout of stockmarket wobbles are unlikely to make this worse on their own. Nor do they deserve to—even if Mr Trump has, with predictable hyperbole, christened them “the Kamala crash”. As we published this, the S&P 500 index of stocks was 8% below its peak, yet the stockmarket had been due for a correction, because it was priced so dearly relative to firms’ earnings. The index is still up by 9% this year and American firms have on average beaten profit forecasts. The biggest slump has taken place not on Wall Street but in Japan.
对民主党的真正威胁是潜在的经济放缓，这让市场感到不安。研究表明，选民最看重最近的经济事件，这意味着选举前的经济表现对选举结果最为重要。选举前两个季度人均税后实际收入的增长，加上政党执政的时间，与美国总统选举结果密切相关。
The real threat to Democrats is the underlying slowdown that helped unnerve the markets. Research suggests that voters weight recent economic events most heavily, meaning that the performance of the economy in the run-up to the election matters most for the result. Growth in after-tax real incomes per person in just the two quarters before a poll, combined with the time a party has been in office, is closely correlated with American presidential-election results.
民主党人在这方面有需要担心的地方。今年年初，实际收入以年化季度速度增长约 1%。随着经济降温，这个增长大约只有0.5%了。即使过往的增长和就业情况不错，消费者信心指数已经低迷。随着经济放缓，消费者信心如今甚至比 1 月份更低，股市下跌或中东战争蔓延导致油价飙升可能会再次打击消费者信心。
Here the Democrats have something to worry about. At the start of the year, real incomes were rising at an annualised quarterly pace of about 1%. As the economy has cooled, this has fallen by roughly half. Consumer confidence was already unusually low, given strong growth and a jobs boom. With the slowdown, it is even lower today than in January and it may take another knock from stockmarket falls, or a surge in oil prices if war spreads in the Middle East.
挥棒落空
所有这些都不意味着特朗普注定会赢。2012 年，尽管经济形势不佳，但奥巴马还是重返白宫，而特朗普在其他问题上也存在弱点。在势均力敌的竞选中，许多因素都可能决定胜负。
A swing and a miss
None of this means that Mr Trump is destined to win. Barack Obama returned to the White House in 2012 despite a poor economy, and Mr Trump is vulnerable on other issues. In a tight race, many factors could be the difference between victory and defeat.
本周，哈里斯女士的热情高涨让她在民调追踪中以微弱优势领先——尽管还不足以赢得选举团票。她在堕胎和医疗保健等议题上也受到选民的青睐。但如果她获胜，并不是因为经济成就。
A surge of enthusiasm for Ms Harris gives her a narrow lead in our poll tracker this week—though not yet enough to carry the electoral college. She is also favoured by voters on subjects such as abortion and health care. But if she wins, it will not be because she was helped by the economy.
