李形：金砖国家缺乏结构性实力，但其关系性力量提升弥补了这一不足

来源：南华早报

观点 | 金砖国家缺乏结构性实力，但其关系性力量提升弥补了这一不足

金砖国家距离制定国际规范和标准还有很长的路要走，但它正在逐渐具备重塑这些规范和标准的能力

本月，金砖国家在俄罗斯喀山举行了新近扩员后的首场峰会，这吸引了所有人的目光。自该组织成立以来，人们一直在争论它是否代表了一种基于务实和短期利益的权宜联姻，而不是任何深层的意识形态或历史的统一。

批评人士认为，尽管金砖国家有改革全球体系、削弱西方霸权的愿望，但它缺乏与既定国际秩序抗衡并有效实现其目标所必需的结构性力量。

如果是这样的话，那么人们不禁要问，为什么有30多个国家表示有兴趣或正在寻求加入金砖国家？为什么包括联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯在内的多位世界领导人出席了今年的峰会？

结构性力量的概念解释了实力和权力如何在国际秩序中发挥作用。它指国家或非国家实体塑造支配其他国家、机构和个人互动的总体框架的能力。

结构性力量涉及制定影响各国在更广泛世界秩序中的选择、行为和偏好的游戏规则。通过制定这些规则，拥有结构性力量的实体可以显著影响国际关系、经济实践和政策决策的变革动力。

美国和其他西方大国在安全、生产、金融和知识等核心领域行使结构性权力，这使它们能够以符合其利益的方式塑造全球秩序。这种结构性权力使与这些价值观一致的国家更容易繁荣，而那些与之背道而驰的国家往往会面临制裁或孤立。

如果我们在结构性力量的框架内看待金砖国家，可以明显看到该集团仍然缺乏塑造替代世界秩序的能力。

然而，如果我们通过关系性力量的视角来看待金砖国家，我们可以看到它正在有效地影响其他国家和非国家行为体的行为和决策。关系性力量是指通过建立和维持关系来影响他人并逐步实现目标的能力。

关系性力量的特点是其特殊性和情境性。它在单个国家或国家集团之间的动态中发挥作用，通常通过说服、外交、经济影响和建立集体立场等方式来实践。

金砖国家的关系性力量使其能够促进合作、建立伙伴关系并影响全球治理。因此，尽管金砖国家在结构性实力方面面临限制，但其在世界舞台上的重要性正在逐步提升。这种关系性力量使金砖国家能够驾驭国际动态，维护其成员国的利益，并挑战既定规范。

当多元化、多方面和多层次的关系权力积累到相当大的程度时，金砖国家可能变得足够强大，其要么可以获得结构性力量，要么可以推动现有权力结构的改革。

首先，金砖国家目前占世界国内生产总值的至少35%，占世界人口的45%，而七国集团这一比例不到 10%。金砖国家可以说已经成为全球南方国家（按人口计算占全球大多数）的核心代表。

其次，金砖国家拥有世界相当一部分能源储备。这为长期采购协议和使用当地货币等机制创造了新的机会。这些发展可能挑战美国对石油和天然气定价的控制，或许预示着石油美元的终结。

第三，预计到今年年底，阿联酋的主权财富基金将达到2万亿美元。仅此一点就可以大大提升新开发银行相对于西方金融机构的地位。尽管俄罗斯总统普京表示，金砖国家“没有、也不会”创建 Swift 的替代方案，但如果金砖国家建立支付系统的提议得以实施，最终可能会挑战美元的主导地位。

第四，中国通过其经济关系，特别是通过“一带一路”倡议所建立的关系性实力，使其能够通过重塑全球贸易和投资规范的方式影响全球经济体系，并挑战现有金融机构的权威。

第五，作为四方安全对话的成员，尽管西方施压要求孤立莫斯科，但印度仍继续与俄罗斯进行贸易。这一立场主要由印度对战略自主的承诺、其经济利益以及与俄罗斯的长期国防和能源关系所驱动。

印度最近与中国的和解体现了其微妙的平衡行为，因为维持与俄罗斯和中国的关系是其与西方接触的关键谈判策略。

第六，中国和巴西等金砖国家在乌克兰战争问题上强调中立、主权和谈判。这影响了全球南方国家对俄乌战争的态度，例如东南亚国家联盟有着相同的立场。

最后，土耳其有意加入金砖国家，凸显了涉及力量平衡的地缘政治复杂性。对于金砖国家来说，土耳其的加入可以增强该组织的影响力，并促进其推进多极世界秩序的目标。

对于土耳其来说，加入金砖国家可以使其伙伴关系多样化，增强其外交影响力，将自己定位为东西方之间的桥梁。然而，土耳其作为北大西洋公约组织成员国的地位也面临风险。

金砖国家正在积累关系性力量，这不仅源于物质实力，还源于建立联系、建立替代机构和协调新兴经济体之间的共同目标。

Opinion| What Brics lacks in structural power, it makes up for in connections

The grouping is a long way from being able to set international norms and standards, but it is becoming increasingly able to reshape them

All eyes were on the firstsummit of the newly expanded Brics in the Russian city of Kazan this month. Since the grouping’s inception, there has been a debate about whether it represents a marriage of convenience based on pragmatic, short-term interests, instead of any deep ideological or historical unity.

Critics argue that, despite its aspirations to reform the global system and chip away at Western hegemony, Brics lacks thenecessary structural power to rival the established international order and achieve its goals effectively.

If this is the case, then one must ask why are more than 30 countries expressing interest in or are seeking Brics membership? Why did multiple world leaders, including United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres, attend this year’s summit?

The concept of structural power explains how power functions in the international order. It refers to the ability of states or non-state entities to shape the overarching framework that governs the interactions of other states, institutions and individuals.

It involves establishing the rules of the game that affect the options, behaviours and preferences of states within the broader world order. By setting these rules, entities with structural power can significantly impact the dynamics of international relations, economic practices and policy decisions.

The United States and other Western powers have exercised structural power in core domains, such as security, production, finance and knowledge, which enables them to shape the global order in a way that aligns with their interests. This structural power makes it easier for states that align with these values to thrive, while those that diverge often face sanctions or isolation.

If we see Brics within the framework of structural power, then it is obvious that the group still lacks the ability to shape analternative world order.

However, if we consider Brics through the lens of relational power, we can see that it is effectively influencing the behaviours and decisions of other states and non-state actors. Relational power refers to the ability to influence others and accumulatively achieve goals by building and maintaining relationships.

Relational power is characterised by its specificity and situational nature. It functions within the dynamics between individual states or groups of states and is often exercised through methods such as persuasion, diplomacy, economic influence and the establishment of a collective position.

Brics’ relational power allows it to promote collaboration, forge partnerships and influence global governance. As a result, the group is gradually elevating its significance on the world stage, even though it faces limitations in terms of structural power. This capacity for relational power enables Brics to navigate international dynamics, advocate for the interests of its member states, and challenge established norms.

When diversified, multifaceted and multilayered relational power accumulates to a significant extent, Brics could become robust enough to either attain structural power or push for reforms in the existing power structure.

First, Brics now accounts for at least 35 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product and 45 per cent of the global population compared with less than 10 per cent for theGroup of 7. Brics has arguably become the core representation of the Global South, the global majority, in terms of population.

Second, Brics has a significant portion of the world’s energy reserves. This creates new opportunities for mechanisms such as long-term purchasing agreements and the use of local currencies. Such developments could challenge US control over oil and gas pricing, perhaps signalling anend to the petrodollar.

Third, the sovereign wealth fund of the United Arab Emirates is projected to reach US$2 trillion by the end of the year. That alone could significantly enhance theNew Development Bank’s position vis-a-vis Western-based financial institutions. Even though Russian President Vladimir Putin said Brics countries “have not and are not” creating an alternative to Swift, the proposal to establish a payment system for the group – if pursued – could end up challenging the dominance of the US dollar.

Fourth, China’s relational power through its economic relationships, especially through theBelt and Road Initiative, allows Beijing to affect the global economic system in terms of reshaping global trade and investment norms, as well as challenging the authority of the existing financial institutions.

Fifth, as a member of theQuadrilateral Security Dialogue, India has continued to trade with Russia despite Western pressure to isolate Moscow. This stance is primarily driven by India’s commitment to strategic autonomy, its economic interests and its long-standing defence and energy ties with Russia.

India’s recent rapprochement with China illustrates its delicate balancing act, as sustaining relationships with both Russia and China serves as a crucial bargaining strategy in its engagement with the West.

Sixth, Brics countries such asChina and Brazil have approached the Ukraine war with an emphasis on neutrality, sovereignty and negotiation. This has influenced attitudes in the Global South regarding the war, such as the stance of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Finally,Turkey’s interest in joining Brics highlights geopolitical complexities involving the balance of power. For Brics, Turkey’s entry could enhance the group’s influence and boost its goals of promoting a multipolar world order.

For Turkey, Brics membership could diversify its partnerships and strengthen its diplomatic leverage, positioning itself as a bridge between East and West. However, Turkey also risks straining its position as a member of theNorth Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

Brics is accumulating relational power, which stems not only from material capabilities but also from fostering connections, establishing alternative institutions and coordinating shared objectives among emerging economies.