《地平线》杂志｜王义桅 谭燕楠：彼岸之观——中国人如何看待美国大选

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2024年10月29日，欧洲知名期刊《地平线》（Horizons）2024年秋季号刊发中国人民大学国际关系学院教授王义桅与中国人民大学外交学博士生谭燕楠撰写的《彼岸之观：中国人如何看待美国大选》（Perspectives From Across the Pacific Ocean：How China Views the US Presidential Election）评论文章，谈论中国人如何看待美国大选，反驳近期美国政界炒作的“中国干预大选论”。

全文摘录如下：

Perspectives From Across the Pacific Ocean：How China Views the US Presidential Election

Wang Yiwei & Tan Yannan

The 2024 U.S. election is now in its final countdown. Throughout the election year, discussions about U.S. policy toward China have been particularly intense and extreme. Unlike the 2016 election, during which former U.S. President Donald Trump focused heavily on China, both parties now adopt a serious and hardline stance, seizing the moment to amplify fears of a Chinese threat. Within the United States, there are numerous misunderstandings about how China views the U.S. presidential race. During this election year, Washington needs to approach China-related issues with caution, accurately addressing perspectives from China to avoid internal political strife that could lead to global unrest.

America’s Paranoid Obsession

Diplomacy is an extension of domestic politics. In recent years, America’s global strategy has increasingly reflected its internal political landscape. Both Trump and Biden have emphasized defending and restoring America’s global leadership. However, the U.S. government has come to realize that domestic political troubles are now the biggest obstacles to effectively executing its global strategy. Social division, political polarization, and the dysfunction of its democratic institutions have undermined the global influence that the United States once proudly enjoyed.

The Americans are eager to reclaim their unparalleled dominance, yet instead of taking grounded, internal action, an unprecedented obsession with China has taken hold in American politics. At a time when domestic politics are in trouble, the United States is focusing more on responding to so-called life-and-death external threats. Their foreign policy has become intensely focused on China, with increasing mentions in presidential campaigns. During the 2016 election, Trump’s “America First” mantra featured China prominently in nearly every speech, positioning it as a key campaign advantage. Once in office, Trump’s national security strategy labeled China a “revisionist challenger” for the first time, initiating a global containment effort. The Biden Administration, while emphasizing policies aimed at the American middle class, continued this trajectory, seeking to build an anti-China coalition through small-scale multilateral cooperation mechanisms and the “Small Yard, High Fence” policy. Almost all U.S. foreign policy strategies began to revolve around China. This heightened focus has spread widely, with a hardline stance on China becoming a rare bipartisan consensus. In the 2022 midterms, discussions about China surged even in local state government debates. Vice President Kamala Harris highlighted, “We will ensure that America, not China, wins the ‘competition of the twenty-first century,’” despite the fact that this so-called competition was sparked unilaterally by the United States, while China never sought to engage. Some view this all-government anti-China policy as the start of a marathon competition, while others call it the “China Trap.”

The United States treats suppressing the People’s Republic as the only way to ease its anxieties, but this competition is draining its political, economic, and social foundations, ultimately undermining its international status and domestic stability. Trump’s tariff war against China has not been won, while the United States and its allies have deepened rifts over conflict caused by great power competition. Even with the desperate attempts to propagate a narrative of U.S.-China rivalry, the Global South has not stood with the Western world as Biden had sincerely hoped. The United States is overstretching its own institutional and strategic resources to fulfil an impossible task: to prevent countries other than the United States from continuing to develop.

Under the grip of this obsessive mindset, presidential candidates often emphasize divisions, playing on fears and emotions to propose or implement policies that could further escalate conflict. China’s attitude toward the U.S. elections has been artificially polarized into two camps: one views China through an American lens, believing that the People’s Republic shares a deep anxiety about shifts in U.S. politics, even fueling fears around supposed “Chinese interference in American elections,” which further heightens domestic political panic. The other camp sees the 2024 elections as chaotic, filled with unexpected events like “assassinations” and “leadership changes,” adopting a detached, almost amused stance, watching the turmoil unfold from afar. As the electoral situation heats up, the emphasis on these perspectives breeds misunderstandings between China and the United States across various social levels, ultimately threatening the very foundation of their relationship.

Keep a Close Eye, Maintain Distance

Like many other countries, China pays close attention to changes and developments in international politics, and few elections capture as much global interest as the U.S. presidential election. The outcome of this election often has a significant impact on America’s policies toward China, and the United States is also keenly interested in Chinese perspectives. However, when it comes to understanding China, the former seems to fall into several traps of misinterpretation and unfounded speculation.

First, the United States tends to assume that the opinions of the Chinese public about the American election reflect government views, misreading individual attitudes as national sentiment. Many American media outlets and think tanks frequently reference trending discussions on Chinese social media platforms like Weibo to back up their claims about China’s stance on the election, creating misleading narratives. Like people everywhere, the Chinese public’s interest in the U.S. election is independent; the twists and turns of the 2024 election naturally spark significant discussion in China. Public free will and freedom of expression mean individuals can hold diverse opinions that don’t necessarily align with official positions.

Second, the United States believes China is particularly focused on its presidential candidates, even implying bias. Trump has boasted in debates about China’s “fear” of him, claiming that “China is afraid he’ll take office.” Polls show that many Trump supporters think China favors Harris, while nearly half of Harris’s supporters believe the opposite. For China, the dynamics of U.S. domestic politics are unpredictable and beyond its influence. China has no intention of intervening and firmly opposes U.S. interference in its internal affairs, especially when this challenges China’s national interests during elections. China’s stance is clear: the outcome of U.S. elections is determined solely by American voters. China does not favor any particular candidate. While there may be differences in the approaches of Trump and Harris toward China, the pressure and attacks will continue regardless of who wins. Moreover, China’s attention to the U.S. elections is broader than it seems; it has long viewed these elections as a prime opportunity to observe the workings of the U.S. political system, changes in societal dynamics, and policy trends. The competition between Harris and Trump represents not just a clash of policies or “establishment versus anti-establishment” but also signifies a generational shift in U.S. foreign policy decisionmaking, which is crucial for fostering smoother U.S.-China interactions in the future.

Third, the United States assumes that China sees the upcoming elections as the biggest risk to bilateral relations, preparing for the worst potential fluctuations in U.S.-China ties. After Trump took office in 2016, amidst deepening domestic political division, the conflict in U.S.-China relations appeared to have escalated. The Republican Party is often viewed as having a tougher approach to China, but the subsequent Biden Administration has also put U.S.-China relations in a state of tension. As President Xi Jinping said, U.S.-China relations are among the most important bilateral relationships globally; while friction and disputes are inevitable, the shared vision of promoting world peace and development will not be shaken by presidential transitions. In contrast to the chaotic nature of U.S. politics, under the leadership of the Communist Party, China’s political, economic, and social landscape has remained stable and prosperous. Chinese traditional culture emphasizes empathy and coexistence of differences, leading to a dual perspective on the U.S. election: on one hand, China understands and respects the unique internal context of American politics and society and will continue to “focus on its own matters,” striving for self-improvement and maintaining strategic composure. The U.S. election is not the greatest risk, as China’s development and future do not hinge on the next American president but rather on the efforts of the Chinese people and government. On the other hand, the world can accommodate the shared development of both the U.S. and China. As a responsible major power, China remains committed to promoting constructive development in Sino-American relations and stabilizing bilateral communication and cooperation, contributing to global peace.

Election Years and U.S.-China Relations

Long before U.S.-China relations normalized, China was already keeping a close eye on American electoral politics. Mao Zedong once predicted, “In 1972, there will be a presidential election in the U.S. I believe Nixon might send someone here in the first half of the year.” In the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping humorously commented on American democracy, saying, “In presidential elections, there’s one stance right after taking office, another for the midterms, and yet another as the next election approaches. The U.S. says our policies are unstable, but compared to them, ours are much more stable.” Before significant changes in U.S.-China relations in 2016, President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of “enhancing mutual trust, deepening cooperation, managing differences constructively, and promoting stable development” in discussions with U.S. officials. The significance of the 2024 U.S. election is clear; the main challenge for U.S.-China relations this election year isn’t just potential fluctuations and friction, but how to minimize the negative side effects of the election that could undermine their already fragile stability.

Since Trump took office in 2016, American perceptions of China have shifted dramatically, with even minor tensions and unexpected incidents being exaggerated in the current political climate. Cultural exchanges and travel between the two nations have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels. In the recent presidential debates, Vice President Harris and former President Trump both accused each other of being too lenient toward China. From Trump’s viewpoint, China is a vicious enemy and an evil aggressor that threatens traditional American values; Harris sees it as a critical competitor and systemic threat, insisting that America cannot afford to retreat or fail. Yet, regardless of their framing, many of America’s challenges seem to be attributed to China. Looking ahead, China doesn’t expect a huge difference in the overall tone of Trump and Harris’s policies, though their focuses may vary. Trump’s business mentality makes him particularly sensitive to economic issues, so a new chill in U.S.-China economic cooperation is very possible. Harris is likely to continue Biden’s approach, keeping technology as a key area for potential conflict. The aggressive tactics of American politicians—both presidential candidates and local officials—often serve short-term electoral interests without considering the long-term needs for development. While there are still rational perspectives and calm discussions about China within U.S. strategic, policy, and academic circles, these voices struggle to break through the prevailing competitive mindset. This toxic political environment is spreading, and the shortsighted actions of politicians may unnecessarily push U.S.-China relations toward a crisis.

All American politicians who exaggerate the Chinese threat and smear China should realize that winning an election doesn’t have to mean dragging U.S.-China relations into troubled waters. Given the tensions between China and the United States, while it’s unlikely that there will be any significant changes or historic shifts during the election season, maintaining the stability and smoothness of these relations as the election approaches is crucial for both countries and the world. Both sides need to take proactive steps to manage differences in the upcoming election cycle and prevent any unexpected incidents, which is essential for China’s diplomatic and economic landscape.

History Does Not Repeat Itself

Navigating the complex political landscape in the United States makes it difficult to shake off the obsessive fixation on China and stop the sensationalism surrounding issues related to it. However, creating a platform for dialogue is crucial for easing the current political tensions. On the one hand, fostering mutual understanding and respect at all levels between China and the United States is essential. Even in a heated election cycle, China-related topics shouldn’t serve as scapegoats, and the debates in Washington don’t fully reflect the real concerns Americans have about everyday lives. Issues like the economy, immigration, education, and social security are the primary focus for voters, making it unlikely for the U.S. election to dominate headlines in Chinese media. Nonetheless, both China and the U.S. are highly attuned to their relationship. America’s interest in China’s views on the election reflects a desire for a deeper understanding of China, as well as hope that China can grasp the complexities of the United States. Both nations should continue to promote cultural exchanges to foster a nuanced understanding of each other. Meanwhile, American academics and strategists need to remain alert to changes in U.S.-China relations, identifying potential risks and challenges while using various channels, including Track II diplomacy, to stabilize the relationship.

The world is currently undergoing unprecedented changes, yet the West, led by the United States, continues to apply outdated Cold War logic to frame U.S.-China relations, emphasizing a narrative of “democracy versus authoritarianism.” For China, the global landscape isn’t solely defined by Sino-American relations, nor is it structured around a camp mentality. China doesn’t have any objections to the U.S. election. It focuses on promoting a community with a shared future, upholding common values, and implementing initiatives for global development, security, and civilization. China advocates for a multipolar world and inclusive economic globalization. Compared to the Cold War era, the dynamics between the United States, China, and the world have gone through numerous ups and downs. Unlike the West’s historical path dependence, China views history as a mirror for understanding past successes and failures, not a crystal ball for predicting the future. While past U.S. elections have often seen chaotic discussions about China, they rarely caused serious damage to U.S.-China relations. However, the current trend of demonizing and misinterpreting China overshadows the longstanding collaborative efforts in areas like military, technology, economy, finance, and global governance. These collaborations are crucial for maintaining the strategic consensus and cooperative foundation of U.S.-China relations. To ensure stable bilateral relations and avoid descending into conflict over misunderstandings and suspicions, future U.S. administrations and informed individuals need to keep communication lines open with China. It’s vital to genuinely understand the importance of cooperation and dialogue between the two nations for global peace and development.