浙大、人大教授等JPE论文见刊，2024年11月刊目录及摘要

01.Endogenous Liquidity and Capital Reallocation

Wei Cui

Randall Wright

Yu Zhu

摘要

This paper studies economies where firms acquire capital in primary markets and then, after idiosyncratic productivity shocks, retrade it in secondary markets that incorporate bilateral trade with search, bargaining, and liquidity frictions. We distinguish between full or partial sales (one firm gets all or some of the other’s capital) and document several long- and short-run empirical patterns between these variables and the cost of liquidity, as measured by inflation. Quantitatively, the model can match these patterns plus the standard business cycle facts. We also investigate the impact of search frictions, monetary and fiscal policy, persistence in shocks, and returns to scale.

本文研究了企业在一级市场获得资本，然后在特殊的生产率冲击之后，在二级市场进行再交易的经济体，这些市场将双边贸易与搜索、讨价还价和流动性摩擦相结合。我们区分了全部或部分销售（一家公司获得另一家公司的全部或部分资本），并记录了这些变量与流动性成本（以通货膨胀衡量）之间的几种长期和短期经验模式。在定量上，该模型可以与这些模式以及标准商业周期事实相匹配。我们还调查了搜索摩擦、货币和财政政策、冲击的持续性以及规模回归的影响。

02.Detecting Drivers of Behavior at an Early Age: Evidence from a Longitudinal Field Experiment

Marco Castillo

John A. List

Ragan Petrie

Anya Samek

摘要

We investigate how skills developed when children are 3–5 years old drive schooling outcomes in middle childhood and adolescence. We find that skills map onto three distinct factors—cognitive skills, executive functions, and economic preferences. Importantly, each of the three factors predict later schooling outcomes. While early executive function skills and cognitive scores are linked to future behavioral patterns and other key student outcomes, economic preferences have an independent effect: children who are impatient in early childhood have more disciplinary referrals. Finally, random assignment to preschool impacts grades and disciplinary referrals through changes to cognitive skills and executive functions.

我们调查了儿童 3-5 岁时培养的技能如何推动童年中期和青少年期的学校教育成果。我们发现，技能映射到三个不同的因素——认知技能、执行功能和经济偏好。重要的是，这三个因素中的每一个都预测了以后的学校教育结果。虽然早期执行功能技能和认知分数与未来的行为模式和其他关键学生成绩有关，但经济偏好具有独立的影响：在幼儿期不耐烦的儿童会有更多的纪律转介。最后，随机分配到学前班通过改变认知技能和执行功能来影响成绩和学科推荐。

03.Still Flying: Reply to “Not a Flying Start after All?” by Lillebø et al.

Pedro Carneiro

Katrine Løken

Kjell G. Salvanes

节选

In Carneiro, Løken, and Salvanes (2015), we analyze the long-term impacts of the 1977 Norwegian maternity leave reform on several outcomes of children. Lillebø et al.’s (2024) comment presents several objections to our analysis. The most important part of their comment uncovers details of the reform that were missed in our paper. In addition, they also document a coding error and raise a few objections to the empirical work we conducted.

04.Bubble Necessity Theorem

Tomohiro Hirano

Alexis Akira Toda

摘要

Asset price bubbles are situations where asset prices exceed the fundamental values defined by the present value of dividends. This paper presents a conceptually new perspective: the necessity of bubbles. We establish the bubble necessity theorem in a plausible general class of economic models: with faster long-run economic growth (G) than dividend growth (Gd) and counterfactual long-run autarky interest rate (R) below dividend growth, all equilibria are bubbly with nonnegligible bubble sizes relative to the economy. This bubble necessity condition naturally arises in economies with sufficiently strong savings motives and multiple factors or sectors with uneven productivity growth.

资产价格泡沫是指资产价格超过股息现值定义的基本值的情况。本文提出了一个概念上的新观点：气泡的必要性。我们在一类看似合理的一般经济模型中建立了泡沫必要性定理：长期经济增长 （G） 快于股息增长 （Gd）和低于股息增长的反事实长期自给自足的利率 （R），相对于经济来说，所有均衡都是泡沫膨胀的，泡沫大小不可忽略。这种泡沫必要性条件自然会出现在储蓄动机足够强烈且多种因素或生产率增长不均衡的部门中。

05.The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross

Adrien Auclert

Matthew Rognlie

Ludwig Straub

摘要

We generalize the traditional, static Keynesian cross by deriving an intertemporal Keynesian cross for the dynamic output response to government spending and taxes in microfounded general equilibrium models. Intertemporal marginal propensities to consume (iMPCs) are sufficient statistics for this response, with fiscal multipliers depending only on the interaction between iMPCs and public deficits. We provide empirical estimates of iMPCs and argue that they are inconsistent with representative agent or two-agent models but can be matched by certain heterogeneous agent models. Models that match empirical iMPCs imply larger and more persistent output responses to deficit-financed fiscal policy, with cumulative spending multipliers above 1.

我们通过推导出一个跨期凯恩斯主义交叉来推广传统的静态凯恩斯主义交叉，用于在微观基础一般均衡模型中对政府支出和税收的动态产出响应。跨期边际消费倾向 （iMPC） 足以证明这种反应，财政乘数仅取决于 iMPC 与公共赤字之间的相互作用。我们提供了 iMPC 的经验估计，并认为它们与代表性代理或双代理模型不一致，但可以通过某些异质代理模型进行匹配。与实证 iMPC 相匹配的模型意味着对赤字融资财政政策的更大、更持久的产出反应，累积支出乘数大于 1。

06.(Near-)Substitute Preferences and Equilibria with Indivisibilities

Thành Nguyen

Rakesh Vohra

摘要

07.The Impact of Divorce Laws on the Equilibrium in the Marriage Market

Ana Reynoso

摘要

Does easier divorce affect who marries whom? I exploit time variation in the adoption of unilateral divorce across the United States and show that it increases assortative matching among newlyweds. To unravel the underlying mechanisms, I estimate a novel life-cycle equilibrium model of marriage, labor supply, consumption, and divorce under the baseline mutual consent divorce regime. By solving the model under unilateral divorce, I find that, consistent with the data, assortative matching increases. Effects are largely due to changes in choices when risk sharing and cooperation within marriage decrease, which highlights the importance of considering equilibrium effects when evaluating family policies.

更容易离婚会影响谁嫁给谁吗？我利用了美国采用单方面离婚的时间变化，并表明它增加了新婚夫妇之间的分类匹配。为了揭示潜在机制，我估计了在基线双方同意离婚制度下婚姻、劳动力供应、消费和离婚的一个新的生命周期均衡模型。通过求解单方面离婚下的模型，我发现，与数据一致，分类匹配增加。当婚姻中的风险分担和合作减少时，影响主要是由于选择的变化，这突出了在评估家庭政策时考虑均衡效应的重要性。

08.Heterogeneity and Aggregate Fluctuations

Minsu Chang

Xiaohong Chen

Frank Schorfheide

摘要

We develop a state-space model with a transition equation that takes the form of a functional vector autoregression (VAR) and stacks macroeconomic aggregates and a cross-sectional density. The measurement equation captures the error in estimating log densities from repeated cross-sectional samples. The log densities and their transition kernels are approximated by sieves, which leads to a finite-dimensional VAR for macroeconomic aggregates and sieve coefficients. With this model, we study the dynamics of technology shocks, GDP (gross domestic product), employment, and the earnings distribution. We find that spillovers between aggregate and distributional dynamics are generally small, that a positive technology shock tends to decrease inequality, and that a shock that raises earnings inequality leads to a small and insignificant GDP response.

们开发了一个状态空间模型，该模型具有过渡方程，该方程采用函数向量自回归 （VAR） 的形式，并堆叠了宏观经济集合体和横截面密度。测量方程捕获了从重复横截面样本中估计对数密度的误差。对数密度及其过渡核由筛子近似，这导致宏观经济集合体和筛子系数的有限维 VAR。通过这个模型，我们研究了技术冲击、GDP（国内生产总值）、就业和收益分布的动态。我们发现，总量和分配动态之间的溢出效应通常很小，积极的技术冲击往往会减少不平等，而加剧收入不平等的冲击会导致 GDP 响应较小且微不足道。