据NBER官网显示，来自科罗拉多大学的Carol H. Shiue、Wolfgang Keller，合作撰写论文“Elite Strategies for Big Shocks: The Case of the Fall of the Ming”，该文以明朝覆灭为例研究精英家族策略。
Title: Elite Strategies for Big Shocks: The Case of the Fall of the Ming
应对大冲击的精英策略：以明朝的覆灭为例
Carol H. Shiue
科罗拉多大学
Carol H. Shiue
科罗拉多大学
This paper documents persistence in the power of elite families in Central China despite dynastic change. We study the impact of the fall of the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644) on couples and their descendants (treatment of people), and present evidence on the response of multigenerational family lines to a big shock. Local Ming elites suffered a decline in influence in the short run, but in the long-run their descendants recovered and tightened their grip on power in their role as the elites of the new Qing Dynasty (1644-1911). In contrast to the recovery of family lines, the fall of Ming had a more persistently negative impact on the regions that historically were most strongly negatively affected by the shock (treatment of regions). The paper suggests that the elite reversal is due to trauma caused by Ming destruction that shifted norms towards the most socially respectable career paths based on the civil service exam; these norms were, to a greater degree, intergenerationally transmitted in family lines that suffered more from the destruction in the fall of the Ming dynasty.
这篇文章记录了尽管发生了王朝更迭，但中国中部精英家族的权力持久性。我们研究了明朝（1368-1644年）的覆灭对夫妇及其后代（对人民的处理）的影响，并提出了多代家族对大冲击的反应的证据。当地的明朝精英在短期内影响力下降，但从长远来看，他们的后代恢复了，并在新的清朝（1644-1911年）中作为精英加强了对权力的控制。与家族线的恢复形成对比的是，明朝的覆灭对于那些历史上受到冲击最严重的地区（对地区的处理）产生了更持久的负面影响。文章认为，精英的逆转是由于明朝毁灭造成的创伤，这种创伤将规范转向了基于科举考试的最社会上受尊敬的职业路径；这些规范在那些在明朝覆灭中遭受更多破坏的家族线中，更大程度上被代际传递。
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