——做专业的科技财经媒体！
大陆已经连续四个季度稳居ASML最大客户地区之列，且该占比始终保持在40%或以上的高水平，本季度中国大陆客户的光刻营收占比达到49%。
撰文：李星
上个月ASML Holding NV现公布了2024年第二季度财务业绩，本季度净销售额62.4亿欧元（约合495亿元人民币），预期为60亿欧元；毛利率51.5%；净利润15.78亿欧元（约合125亿元人民币）。数据显示销售额同比下滑9.57%，净利润同比下滑15.79%。
另外ASML第二季度预订单达55.7亿欧元（约合442亿元人民币），预期为44.1亿欧元，其中25亿欧元为EUV光刻机。同期，ASML研发费用达11.01亿欧元（约合87亿元人民币）。
ASML在2024年第一季度的业绩显示，订单量环比下降61%，降幅超出市场预期。第一季度当时新增订单金额为36亿欧元，其中6.56亿欧元为EUV光刻机订单。
ASML预计第三季度销售额在67亿欧元至73亿欧元之间，毛利率在50%至51%之间；预计2024年的销售额将与其2023年报告的275.6亿欧元相似。
另外，ASML本季度共交付了100台设备，包括89台全新光刻机和11台二手光刻机。
在全新光刻机中，尽管EUV光刻机的数量从上季度的11台微降至8台，但ArFi、ArF、KrF等其他类型光刻机的出货量均呈现增长态势。
大陆已经连续四个季度稳居ASML最大客户地区之列，且该占比始终保持在40%或以上的高水平，本季度大陆客户的光刻营收占比达到49%。
据行业传出的消息显示，由于全球半导体装备行业受出货政策影响，销往大陆的先进制程设备与材料，随时有无法交易的风险，因此有很多大陆的半导体企业开始在资本运作下，从全球市场上对先进制程设备和材料进行提前购买，并出现囤货居奇的现象。
AMSL的光刻机是大陆半导体厂商与资本最主要的囤货对象，这也造成了AMSL不管是新机，还是二手机，都得花大量的时间和资源来组织生产，因此造成了最先进的EUV光刻机进度较原计划更加缓慢。
大陆半导体厂商近些年也积极在成熟制程数字芯片上进行产能扩张，并且在功率半导体芯片领域也投资迅猛，行业预计在2024年大陆的晶圆制造产能将达到885万（wpm）的产能水平，同比增长15%；2025年则会达到1010万（wpm），仍将以14%的速度增长，到时大陆的晶圆产能占据全球芯片行业总产能的三分之一。
对于大陆的半导体产能快速扩张，全球半导体市场包括ASML都有些担心，而且目前大陆在功率半导体领域，已经出现了产能过剩现象。
然而从近期大陆半导体的产业动向来看，海外市场发现很多大陆半导体企业正在利用成熟制程来扩张存储芯片产能和HBM先进内存封装产能，而产业背景逻辑则是大陆半导体厂商认为AI人工智能的发展，需要大量的资料存储和运算缓存来支撑，所以会迅速吃掉市场上现有的存储芯片产能。
而AI算力芯片出货增加，则会让市场上的HMB先进内存封产能持续紧缺，在先进制程受限的情况下，HMB先进内存封装，也会是大陆提升自己综合算力实力的重要部分。
目前ASML和全球的光刻胶厂商，都在研究1纳米以下的光刻+自组装量产工艺，应该如何进行，但这些研究同样也需要目前3纳米与2纳米制程的量产工艺经验来辅助。
所以对于ASML在EUV光刻机的生产速度和装机速度放缓，以及目前3纳米与2纳米制程的晶圆厂建设速度不如预期的现象，全球半导体市场对大陆成熟制程产能的扩张，一方面认为减轻了整个行业不景气带来的负面影响，但另一方面也觉得这些产能也会过度消耗进行先进制程研究的行业资源，一旦未来行业出现大量成熟产能过剩，容易对先进产能的研究与发展，造成行业资源消耗过度带来的研发投入不足冲击。
目前全球各大经济体仍然在加强对半导体产业的补贴，来吸引半导体制造产能投资，以求实现所谓的产业安全目的。但是从供应链传出的消息显示，不管是大陆市场，还是欧美市场，都已经出现了因投资资本不到位，晶圆厂现有建厂项目施工进度放缓或暂停的现象，甚至有些项目进入到了“烂尾”阶段，如果找不到新的资金注入，很可能会项目终止。
ASML目前也十分担心行业出现新的危机，毕竟晶圆厂如果项目建设进度不如预期的话，一部分已经出货待装机的机台，和已经装机却没有真正量产的机台，都会对后续ASML的运营产生巨大的影响，除了货款无法及时回收外，生产订单安排进程也将被打乱。
Chinese mainland semiconductor companies stockpiled lithography machines, and AMSL business plans were disrupted
Editor:Lucien
Last month, ASML Holding NV announced its second-quarter 2024 financial results, with net sales of 6.24 billion euros (about 49.5 billion yuan) for the quarter, compared with an expected 6 billion euros; gross profit margin of 51.5%; net profit of 1.578 billion euros (about 12.5 billion yuan). The data showed that sales fell 9.57% year-on-year, and net profit fell 15.79% year-on-year.
In addition, ASML's second-quarter pre-orders reached 5.57 billion euros (about 44.2 billion yuan), which was expected to be 4.41 billion euros, of which 2.5 billion euros were for EUV lithography machines. During the same period, ASML's R&D expenses reached 1.101 billion euros (about 8.7 billion yuan).
ASML's results for the first quarter of 2024 showed a 61% quarter-on-quarter decline in order volume, which exceeded market expectations. New orders in the first quarter amounted to EUR 3.6 billion, of which EUR 656 million were orders for EUV lithography machines.
ASML expects third-quarter sales in the range of €6.7 billion to €7.3 billion, with gross margins in the range of 50% to 51%; Sales in 2024 are expected to be similar to the 27.56 billion euros reported in 2023.
In addition, ASML delivered 100 machines during the quarter, including 89 new and 11 used lithography machines.
Among the new lithography machines, shipments of other types of lithography machines, such as ArFi, ArF, and KrF, all showed an increase in shipments, although the number of EUV lithography machines decreased slightly to 8 from 11 in the previous quarter.
Among them, Chinese mainland has been among ASML's largest customer regions for four consecutive quarters, and the proportion has always remained at a high level of 40% or more, and the lithography revenue of Chinese mainland customers reached 49% in this quarter.
According to the news from the industry, because the global semiconductor equipment industry is controlled by military policies, the advanced process equipment and materials sold to Chinese mainland are at risk of not being traded at any time, so many semiconductor companies in Chinese mainland have begun to purchase advanced process equipment and materials in the global market in advance under capital operation, and there is a phenomenon of hoarding.
AMSL's lithography machines are the main stockpiling objects of mainland semiconductor manufacturers and Chinese capital. This has caused AMSL to spend a lot of time and resources to organize the production of both new and second-hand machines, resulting in the progress of the most advanced EUV lithography machines being slower than originally planned.
In recent years, Chinese mainland semiconductor manufacturers have also actively expanded production capacity on mature process digital chips, and have also invested rapidly in the field of power semiconductor chips, and the industry expects that the wafer manufacturing capacity in Chinese mainland will reach 8.85 million (wpm) in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15%; It will climb further to 10.1 million (wpm) in 2025 and will still grow at a rate of 14%, when Chinese mainland's wafer production capacity will account for one-third of the total capacity of the global chip industry.
For the rapid expansion of semiconductor production capacity in Chinese mainland, the global semiconductor market, including ASML, is somewhat worried, and at present, Chinese mainland has overcapacity in the field of power semiconductors.
However, from the recent semiconductor industry trends in Chinese mainland, overseas markets have found that many Chinese mainland semiconductor companies are using mature processes to expand memory chip production capacity and HBM advanced memory packaging capacity, and the industry background logic is that Chinese mainland semiconductor manufacturers believe that the development of AI artificial intelligence requires a large amount of data storage and computing cache to support, so it will quickly eat up the existing memory chip production capacity in the market.
The increase in AI computing chip shipments will continue to make the HMB advanced memory packaging capacity in the market continue to be in short supply, and in the case of limited advanced manufacturing processes, HMB advanced memory packaging will also be an important part of Chinese mainland's comprehensive computing strength.
At present, ASML and global photoresist manufacturers are studying how to carry out the mass production process of lithography + self-assembly below 1 nanometer, but these studies also need to be assisted by the current mass production process experience of 3 nanometer and 2 nanometer processes.
Therefore, for the slowdown in the production speed and installation speed of ASML's EUV lithography machine, and the current 3nm and 2nm process fab construction speed is not as expected, the global semiconductor market for the expansion of mature process capacity in Chinese mainland, on the one hand, believes that it has alleviated the negative impact of the entire industry recession, but on the other hand, it also feels that these capacities will also excessively consume industry resources for advanced process research, once there is a large number of mature overcapacity in the industry in the future, It is easy to research and develop advanced production capacity, resulting in the impact of insufficient R&D investment caused by excessive consumption of industry resources.
At present, the world's major economies are still strengthening subsidies for the semiconductor industry to attract investment in semiconductor manufacturing capacity in order to achieve the so-called industrial security purpose. However, the news from the supply chain shows that whether it is Chinese mainland or the European and American markets, there has been a phenomenon that the construction progress of existing fab construction projects has slowed down or suspended due to the lack of investment capital, and even some projects have entered the "unfinished" stage, and if no new capital injection can be found, the project is likely to be terminated.
ASML is also very worried about the emergence of a new crisis in the industry, after all, if the construction progress of the project is not as expected, some of the machines that have been shipped for installation, and the machines that have been installed but have not been mass-produced, will have a huge impact on the subsequent operation of ASML. In addition to the inability to collect the payment in time, the production order arrangement process will also be disrupted.
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