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CNBC「解读黄金牛市是否终结」
Trump victory drives gold to near 2-month lows as investors pile into equities, cryptocurrencies
特朗普的胜利推动黄金价格接近两个月来的低点，因为投资者纷纷涌入股票和加密货币市场。
KEY POINTS
Gold prices have tumbled to near two-month lows as the dollar continues to strengthen following Donald Trump’s election victory last week.
The recent slide has put the breakers on the bullion’s rally, which has seen a series of record-breaking milestones over the past year.
“There’s a pause in the bull market in gold and silver, and that may continue for the next couple of weeks or so,” said Citi’s global head of commodities research Maximilian Layton.
核心要点：
1. 随着上周特朗普选举获胜后美元持续走强，黄金价格已跌至近两个月来的低点。
2. 近期的下跌已经抑制了黄金的上涨势头，而在过去一年中，黄金市场已经创下了一系列历史新高。
3. 花旗全球商品研究主管马克斯·莱顿表示：“黄金和白银的牛市目前处于暂停状态，这种情况可能会持续几周左右。”
Gold prices extended their decline to a near two-month low Thursday amid risk-on sentiment and as the dollar continues to strengthen following Donald Trump’s election victory last week.
黄金价格周四延续了下跌趋势，接近两个月来的最低点，这是由于风险偏好情绪上升，以及上周唐纳德·特朗普选举胜利后美元继续走强。
Spot prices
of the yellow metal have dropped nearly 7% since the election results last week to $2,559.2 per ounce. Gold futures on the New York Mercantile exchange were trading at $2,567.3.
现货黄金的价格自上周选举结果以来下跌了近7%，至每盎司2559.2美元。纽约商业交易所的黄金期货交易价格为每盎司2567.3美元。
The recent slide — gold has declined in six of the seven sessions since Trump’s victory — follows a series of record-breaking milestones for bullion over the past year.
最近的下跌——自特朗普获胜以来，金价在七个交易日中有六个交易日下跌——是在过去一年中一系列创纪录的里程碑事件之后发生的。
“There’s a pause in the bull market in gold and silver, and that may continue for the next couple of weeks or so,” said Citi’s global head of commodities research Maximilian Layton.
“黄金和白银的牛市出现暂停，这可能会持续几周左右，”花旗全球大宗商品研究主管Maximilian Layton表示。
He elaborated that gold prices are likely to trade lower as U.S. equities rally on prospects of lower tax and regulations. Trump’s return to the White House had sent U.S. stocks to record highs though the rally has taken a breather.
他详细解释说，随着美国股市因税收和监管降低的前景而上涨，金价可能会走低。特朗普重返白宫后，美国股市创下历史新高，不过涨势已经暂停。
The postelection risk-on sentiment has also lifted cryptocurrencies, with bitcoin briefly trading above $93,000 for the first time on Wednesday on hopes that Trump will make good on a slew of promises to the industry.
大选后的风险情绪也提振了加密货币，比特币周三首次短暂突破9.3万美元，因为人们希望特朗普能兑现对该行业的一系列承诺。
“Trump looking like he’s going to have a red sweep and higher deregulation, lower tax environment has led money into equities, money into bitcoin, and money out of gold,” Layton told CNBC.
莱顿在接受CNBC采访时表示：“特朗普似乎要进行大清洗，放松监管力度加大，税收环境降低，导致资金流入股市，流入比特币，流出黄金。”
The dollar index has also climbed to a one-year high, making greenback-priced gold expensive for holders of other currencies.
美元指数也攀升至一年高点，使得以美元计价的黄金对其他货币的持有者来说变得昂贵。
“The rise in the U.S. dollar reflects how markets have priced in Trump’s inflationary policy agenda, which primarily includes tax cuts and tariffs,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Vivek Dhar wrote in a note dated Wednesday.
澳大利亚联邦银行的Vivek Dhar在周三的一份报告中写道：“美元的上涨反映了市场如何消化特朗普的通胀政策议程，其中主要包括减税和关税。”
Equities are in “euphoria territory” right now as they price in market-friendly outcomes of the elections, said Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at treading services firm MKS Pamp. “Until this Trump trade honeymoon phase runs its course, gold and silver are amidst repricing to a less bullish trajectory,” she said.
踩点服务公司MKS Pamp金属策略主管Nicky Shiels表示，股市目前处于“乐观区间”，因市场消化了对市场有利的选举结果。她说：“在特朗普的贸易蜜月期结束之前，黄金和白银将重新定价，进入不那么看涨的轨道。”
In spite of the slide in gold prices, market watchers are still optimistic on the fundamentals of the bullion.
尽管金价下滑，但市场观察人士仍对黄金的基本面持乐观态度。
The underlying drivers of the gold market are still in place, Layton said. After Trump’s election victory, there has been increasing speculation about his tariff proposals and their potential impact on the global economy.
Layton说，黄金市场的根本驱动因素仍然存在。特朗普赢得大选后，人们对他的关税提案及其对全球经济的潜在影响的猜测越来越多。
“As that happens, people will be buying gold and silver to hedge those downside risks,” said Layton.
“在这种情况下，人们将买入黄金和白银，以对冲这些下行风险，” Layton称。
Additionally, central bank demand for gold is expected to remain strong, if not grow, due to the U.S. fiscal outlook and increasing geopolitical tensions, according to financial services firm Canaccord Genuity. Central banks purchased record amount of gold in the first half of 2024.
此外，据金融服务公司Canaccord Genuity称，由于美国财政前景和地缘zz紧张局势加剧，央行对黄金的需求即使不会增长，也将保持强劲。各国央行在2024年上半年购买了创纪录数量的黄金。
“If President-elect Trump’s second term is anything like his first, with a confrontational approach to friends and foes alike, we believe strong international demand for gold as a reserve asset is likely to continue relative to demand for treasuries,” the bank’s analysts wrote in a report.
该行分析师在一份报告中写道：“如果当选总统特朗普的第二个任期与他的第一个任期一样，对朋友和敌人都采取对抗的态度，我们认为，相对于对美国国债的需求，国际上对黄金作为储备资产的强劲需求可能会持续下去。”
A mix of rising debt, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand are expected to support higher gold prices, said Canaccord Genuity.
Canaccord Genuity表示，债务上升、地缘zz紧张局势和央行需求等因素预计将支撑金价走高。
