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China Property
Minor positive from tax cut
What’s new: Tax reduction
中国房地产
减税带来轻微积极影响
最新动态：税收减免
On 13 November 2024, Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Taxation and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly announced a tax reduction for deed tax, value added tax (VAT), and prepayment rate reduction for land appreciation tax (LAT). The policy purpose is to 1) support housing demand by reducing transactional cost, 2) reduce cash flow pressure for developers by lowering the LAT prepayment.
2024年11月13日，财政部、国家税务总局和住房和城乡建设部联合宣布了一项税收减免政策，涉及契税、增值税（VAT）以及土地增值税（LAT）的预缴率降低。这一政策旨在：1）通过减少交易成本来支持住房需求；2）通过降低LAT预缴率来减轻开发商的现金流压力。
Our view: Minor positive
We think the impact is minor positive. 1) The deed tax reduction to 1% from 1-3% is on a nationwide basis and we see the impact is similar to a price discount of 0.5-1%. 2) VAT will be exempted for individual sellers of non-ordinary property (i.e., luxury property) if they own the property for over 2 years. This only applies for tier 1 cities, which still have the classification of ordinary and non-ordinary property. Before today’s policy, sellers of non-ordinary property need to pay 5.3% VAT on the gain of property price if they hold the property for over 2 years. After today’s policy, VAT will be waived, i.e., same as sellers of ordinary property. However, in Dec 2023, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen relaxed the definition of ordinary properties, hence more properties had been classified as ordinary properties. After the reclassification in Dec 2023, 70% / 89% of properties in Beijing and Shanghai became ordinary properties, vs 30% / 19% before. Hence, the majority of the VAT impact should have already taken place through 2024, whilst the impact of this policy only applies to the non-ordinary properties, which represent 30% / 11% of existing housing stock in Beijing and Shanghai. In terms of impact, we expect secondary listing may increase due to lower transactional cost for sellers. Also, home sellers may be willing to accept a lower price, as the net proceeds could still be higher than before. This should benefit BEKE the most as they are more exposed to tier 1 cities secondary market.
我们的观点：轻微积极影响
我们认为这一政策的影响是轻微积极的。1）契税从1-3%降至1%，全国范围内实施，我们认为这相当于房价打了0.5-1%的折扣。2）对于持有非普通房产（即豪华房产）超过2年的个人，将免除增值税。这一政策仅适用于仍然区分普通和非普通房产的一线城市。在今天的政策出台之前，非普通房产的卖家如果持有房产超过2年，需要支付房价增值部分的5.3%增值税。政策出台后，增值税将被免除，与普通房产卖家享受同等待遇。然而，2023年12月，北京、上海和深圳放宽了普通房产的定义，导致更多房产被归类为普通房产。重新分类后，北京和上海70%/89%的房产成为普通房产，而之前的比例是30%/19%。因此，大部分增值税影响应在2024年已经显现，而此次政策影响主要针对非普通房产，这些房产占北京和上海现有住房存量的30%/11%。在影响方面，我们预计由于卖家交易成本降低，二手房挂牌量可能会增加。同时，房屋卖家可能愿意接受更低的价格，因为即使价格降低，他们的净收益仍可能高于以前。这对BEKE（贝壳）最为有利，因为他们在一线城市的二手房市场有更多市场占有率。
Limited impact from land appreciation tax (LAT)
We see limited impact to developers as the policy is more about lowering the cash outflow but tax burden remains the same. Developers prepay LAT as a percentage of presale proceeds upon property sale. Now, the policy lowers the LAT prepayment rate by 0.5ppt and hence after the policy, the prepayment rate in Eastern China will become 1.5% of presales proceeds, and 1% for Central and Northeast China and 0.5% for Western China. So this slightly lowers cash outflow burden for developers, but it is small compared to the volatility of property sales. As per original policy document, the overall tax burden to developers remains unchanged.
土地增值税（LAT）影响有限
我们认为对开发商的影响有限，因为政策主要是降低现金流出，而税负并没有实质性变化。开发商在房产销售时，需要根据预售收入预缴一定比例的LAT。现在，政策将LAT预缴率降低了0.5个百分点，因此政策实施后，华东地区的预缴率将变为预售收入的1.5%，中西部和东北地区为1%，西部地区为0.5%。这略微降低了开发商的现金流负担，但与房产销售的波动相比影响较小。根据原始政策文件，开发商的整体税负保持不变。
