China retail sales beat forecasts in October while real estate slump worsens
中国10月份社会消费品零售总额超出预期，而房地产市场的低迷状况进一步加剧。
KEY POINTS
* China on Friday reported mixed economic data, including strong growth in retail sales, signaling that the country’s recent stimulus push has already bolstered certain sectors of its flagging economy.
* Retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. That was above the 3.8% forecasted in a Reuters poll, and a pickup from 3.2% growth in September.
* However, investment in real estate for the January to October period fell by 10.3% from a year ago, steeper than the 10.1% drop seen in the January to September period, as the country’s property slump worsens.
核心要点
1. 中国周五公布的经济数据喜忧参半，包括社会零售销售强劲增长，这表明中国近期的刺激措施已经提振了其经济中某些领域的增长。
2. 国家统计局周五表示，社会零售销售同比增长了4.8%，超过了路透社调查预测的3.8%，并且比9月份的3.2%增长有所加快。
3. 然而，今年1月至10月的房地产投资同比减少了10.3%，降幅超过了1月至9月的10.1%，显示出中国房地产市场的低迷状况正在进一步加剧。
China on Friday reported strong growth in retail sales and a decline in real estate investment in October, signaling that the country’s recent stimulus push has already worked to bolster certain sectors of its flagging economy.
Retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. That was above the 3.8% forecasted in a Reuters poll, and a pickup from 3.2% growth in September.
中国在周五宣布了10月份社会零售销售的强劲增长和房地产投资的下滑，这显示了中国最近的刺激政策已经在一定程度上提振了经济中某些表现不佳的领域。
根据国家统计局周五的数据，零售销售同比增长了4.8%，这一数字高于路透社调查中预测的3.8%，并且较9月份的3.2%增长率有所上升。
Industrial production rose by 5.3% from a year ago, missing expectations of 5.6% growth. While fixed asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, rose by 3.4% from a year ago, slower than the 3.5% forecast.
Investment in real estate for the January to October period fell by 10.3% from a year ago, steeper than the 10.1% drop seen in the January to September period, as the country’s property slump worsens.
It was the sharpest decline since a 10.9% dive was reported for the year-to-date period ending August 2021, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.
National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Fu Linghui, at a press conference on Friday, reiterated China’s pledge in late September to halt the real estate decline, and described the sector as seeing “active improvement,” according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese.
工业产出同比增长了5.3%，未能达到预期的5.6%增长目标。同时，固定资产投资同比增长了3.4%，这一增速慢于预期的3.5%。
今年1月至10月，房地产投资同比下降了10.3%，降幅超过了1月至9月的10.1%，显示出房地产市场的低迷态势正在加剧。根据官方数据，这是自2021年8月为止的年度期间报告的10.9%下降以来的最大降幅。
国家统计局发言人付凌晖在周五的新闻发布会上重申，中国在9月底承诺要遏制房地产市场的下滑，并表示该行业正在经历“积极改善”。
Looking ahead, real estate investment will likely stabilize and recover slightly in the next 12 to 18 months, said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL.
仲量联行（JLL）首席经济学家兼大中华区研究主管彭日成（Bruce Pang）说，展望未来，房地产投资可能会在未来12至18个月内企稳并略有回升。
He noted that sales of new properties narrowed their decline on a year-to-date basis in October versus September. The value of new properties sold fell by 20.9% in the first ten months of the year, better than the 22.7% drop as of September.
Meanwhile, infrastructure and manufacturing investments picked up slightly in the year-to-date period as of October, versus that of September.
The unemployment rate in cities ticked lower to 5%, down from 5.1% in September. Typically, the unemployment rate for young people ages 16 to 24 and not in school is released a few days after the broader jobless rate. That figure had ticked down to 17.6% in September, from a record high of 18.8% in August.
The statistics bureau credited the improvement in major economic indicators to the “acceleration” of existing policies and the “introduction of a raft of incremental policies in October.”
But it warned of persistent headwinds domestically and abroad, while calling for the country to “double” policy implementation efforts so as to achieve the annual growth target.
他提到，10月份新房产销售的同比降幅相比9月份有所收窄。今年前10个月，新房产销售总额下降了20.9%，这个数字比9月份的22.7%下降要好。
同时，与9月份相比，10月份基础设施和制造业投资在年初至今的累计基础上略有增长。
城市shi业率也略有下降，从9月份的5.1%降至5%。通常，16至24岁未在校的年轻人的shi业率会在整体失shi业率公布几天后发布。9月份这一比率从前一个月的18.8%的历史高点下降到了17.6%。
统计局认为，主要经济指标的改善得益于现有政策的加快实施以及10月份推出的一系列新政策。
然而，统计局也提醒说，国内外仍然存在持续的不利因素，并呼吁国家加大政策执行力度，以确保实现年度增长目标。
Chinese authorities have ramped up stimulus announcements since late September, fueling a stock rally. The central bank has cut interest rates and extended existing real estate support.
On the fiscal front, the Ministry of Finance last week announced a five-year 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to address local government debt problems, and hinted more fiscal support could come next year.
自去年9月底以来，中国政府加大了刺激措施的力度，推动了股市的上涨。央行已经下调了利率，并延长了现有的房地产支持措施。
在财政方面，财政部上周宣布了一项10万亿元人民币（合1.4万亿美元）的五年计划，以解决地方政府债务问题，并暗示明年可能会提供更多财政支持。
Manufacturing surveys indicated a pickup in activity last month, while exports surged at their fastest pace in more than a year.
Imports, however, fell as domestic demand remained soft. The core consumer price index that strips out more volatile food and energy prices rose by 0.2% in October from a year ago, modestly better than the 0.1% increase seen in September.
制造业调查显示，上月制造业活动有所回升，而出口则以一年多来最快的速度飙升。
然而，由于国内需求依然疲软，进口有所下降。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心消费者价格指数10月份同比上涨0.2%，略好于9月份0.1%的涨幅。
Beyond a trade-in program to encourage car and home appliance sales, Beijing’s stimulus measures have not targeted consumers directly.
China’s Golden Week holiday in early October affirmed a trend in more cautious consumer spending, but several consultants said that sales during the Singles Day shopping festival, which recently ended, had beat low expectations.
The country’s gross domestic product in the first three quarters of the year grew by 4.8%. The country has set a target of around 5% growth for the year.
除了鼓励汽车和家电销售的以旧换新计划之外，中国政府的刺激措施并没有直接针对消费者。
中国10月初的黄金周假期证实了消费者支出更加谨慎的趋势，但几位咨询师表示，最近刚刚结束的“双十一”购物节期间的销售额超出了低预期。
今年前三季度，中国的国内生产总值增长了4.8%。中国已经为今年设定了5%左右的增长目标。
