Donald Trump is poised to smash Mexico with tariffs
He has been crystal clear he wants to force the country to do his bidding
唐纳德·特朗普准备用关税摧毁墨西哥
他已经非常清楚地表明，他想迫使这个国家听从他的命令
POLICY COMMITMENTS made by President-elect Donald Trump often lack precision. Not so on November 4th, the final day of campaigning, at a rally in North Carolina. Mr Trump kicked it off by announcing that one of his first calls as president would be to Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum. “I’m going to inform her, on day one or sooner, that if they don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country, I am going to immediately impose a 25% tariff on everything they send into the United States of America.” Mr Trump’s policy could not have been much clearer. “You’re the first ones I’ve told it to,” he told the cheering crowd.
当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的政策承诺通常不够明确，但在11月4日，也就是竞选活动的最后一天，在北卡罗来纳州的一次集会上，他的立场却异常清晰。特朗普在集会上宣布，他作为总统的首要任务之一将是致电墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆。他坚定地表示：“我将在上任的第一天或更早，告诉她，如果墨西哥不阻止罪犯和du品涌入我国，我将立即对所有墨西哥输往美国的商品征收25%的关税。”特朗普对这一政策的表述非常明确，他向欢呼的支持者们说：“你们是我第一个告诉这个消息的人。”
There is little to suggest that his threat this time is not serious. Ending illegal migration across the United States’ southern border is one of the chief promises that led to Mr Trump’s historic re-election. In his victory speech on November 6th he declared that “nothing will stop me from keeping my word”. Along with the Republicans’ likely control of Congress, Mr Trump’s victory is a “nightmare scenario” for Mexico, laments Jorge Castañeda, a former foreign minister.
The slump in the peso, which reached 20.8 to the dollar after the race was called for Mr Trump, its lowest rate in two years, illustrates the scale of the economic damage that investors believe Mexico could suffer. During Mr Trump’s first term, the country benefited from the tariffs applied to China. Companies looked to Mexico as an alternative production site, a trend boosted by the pandemic, which incentivised shorter supply chains. In 2021 Mexico overtook China to become the United States’ biggest trade partner.
几乎没有迹象显示，特朗普此次的威胁不是认真的。阻止非法移民穿越美国南部边境是他赢得历史性连任的主要承诺之一。在11月6日的胜利演讲中，他强调“没有什么能够阻止我履行我的诺言”。共和党可能继续控制国会，特朗普的胜利对墨西哥来说是一个“噩梦般的场景”，墨西哥前外交部长豪尔赫·卡斯塔涅达如此哀叹。
比索的汇率下跌——在特朗普胜选后跌至1美元兑20.8比索，这是两年来的最低点——反映了投资者认为墨西哥可能面临的经济损害的严重性。在特朗普的第一个任期内，墨西哥因对中国商品征收的关税而受益。企业将墨西哥视为替代生产地，这一趋势因疫情而得到加强，疫情促使供应链变得更短。到了2021年，墨西哥超越中国，成为美国最大的贸易伙伴。
All that is now imperilled. Ms Sheinbaum and her team are in a “near-shoring bubble”, says Lila Abed, head of the Mexican Institute at the Wilson Centre, a think-tank in Washington. “Reshoring [to the United States] and protectionism are back.” Several American firms have paused planned investments in Mexico, including Tesla, run by Mr Trump’s buddy, Elon Musk. Mr Trump has no qualms about putting tariffs on allies and adversaries alike. He hates trade deficits, and the United States imported $152bn more in goods from Mexico than it sold to it last year. That was the largest deficit the United States ran with any country bar China.
当前的情况表明，特朗普此次的威胁是认真的。墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆及其团队正面临一个“近岸外包泡沫”，华盛顿智库威尔逊中心墨西哥研究所所长莉拉·阿贝德表示：“回流（到美国）和保护主义正在回归。” 一些美国公司已经暂停了在墨西哥的计划投资，包括由特朗普的好友埃隆·马斯克领导的特斯拉。特朗普对于对盟友和对手都征收关税没有任何犹豫，他讨厌贸易赤字，去年美国从墨西哥进口的商品比卖给它的多出1520亿美元。这是美国除了对中国之外与任何国家的最大赤字。
Even if Mexico somehow escapes tariffs, Mr Trump might break the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) through other means, despite having negotiated it during his first term to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. He says he wants to turn a review of the deal in 2026 into a renegotiation. One reason is anger over Chinese investment in Mexico. He rails against Chinese-made cars flooding into the United States from Mexico, ignoring the fact that no Chinese firm has yet produced a single car there. Mexico’s government has just made itself more vulnerable on USMCA. Its recent constitutional changes to its justice system are potentially in breach of the treaty.
Disrupting the North American trading bloc would hurt all three of its members. Putting tariffs on Mexican imports would raise prices for consumers in the United States. But Mexico would suffer most. A whopping 83% of its exports go to the United States, worth about a third of its GDP. Its economy, already sluggish, could fall into recession. Ms Sheinbaum’s cash-strapped government would then be left without the money to pay for the social programmes that are the foundation of its support, let alone the cost of the massive enforcement that Mr Trump wants Mexico to enact to stem the flow of migrants.
即使墨西哥设法避免了关税，特朗普总统也可能通过其他方式破坏美墨加协定（USMCA），尽管这是他在第一任期内谈判达成的，用以取代北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）。他表示，他希望将2026年对该协定的审查转变为重新谈判。其中一个原因是对中国在墨西哥投资的愤怒。他抨击中国制造的汽车从墨西哥涌入美国，却忽略了至今还没有中国公司在墨西哥生产过一辆汽车。墨西哥政府最近使其在USMCA面前变得更加脆弱。其最近对司法系统进行的宪法改革可能违反了条约。
扰乱北美贸易集团将损害其所有三个成员国。对墨西哥进口商品征收关税将提高美国消费者的价格。但墨西哥将遭受最大的损失。其出口商品中有高达83%流向美国，约占其GDP的三分之一。本已低迷的墨西哥经济可能会陷入衰退。谢因鲍姆女士领导的财政紧张的政府将没有资金来支付其支持基础的社会项目，更不用说特朗普希望墨西哥实施的大规模执法行动，以阻止移民流动的成本了。
Mr Trump says his tariff threats have a “100% chance of working”. His confidence may stem from having successfully wielded the threat of tariffs against Mexico before. In his first term he used it to force Mexico to start keeping migrants on its own side of the border while their asylum claims were processed. Mexico deployed some 15,000 troops to its northern border to curb the migrants’ northbound flow, and 6,500 to its southern one.
As well as another deployment on a similar scale, this time Mr Trump will try to force Mexico to accept “safe third country” status so that non-Mexican migrants must claim asylum in Mexico instead of the United States. Mexico has flatly refused this, calling it a “red line”. He may also tell Mexico to co-operate in accepting back some of the almost 5m Mexicans who live in the United States after entering it illegally. They are among the millions of people he promises to deport.
特朗普总统对他的关税威胁持有极高的信心，声称有“100%的成功率”。这种信心可能源于他之前成功地对墨西哥使用过关税威胁的经历。在他的第一任期内，他利用这种威胁迫使墨西哥在其边境一侧安置寻求庇护的移民，直到他们的申请得到处理。墨西哥在北部边境部署了约15,000名士兵以遏制移民北上流动，并在南部边境部署了6,500名士兵。
除了再次进行类似规模的部署外，特朗普此次还试图迫使墨西哥接受“安全第三国”地位，这意味着非墨西哥移民必须在墨西哥而不是美国申请庇护。墨西哥已经断然拒绝这一要求，称之为“红线”。他还可能要求墨西哥合作，接受回一些在美国非法居留的近500万墨西哥人中的一些。这些人是他承诺要驱逐的数百万人中的一部分。
Even Mr Trump’s most hyperbolic threat—to bomb Mexico’s criminal gangs to halt the production of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that killed some 75,000 people in the United States last year—may feel less like a bluff to Mexican officials facing Mr Trump’s second term. Law-enforcement agencies in the United States have increasingly worked against Mexico’s criminal groups without Mexico’s co-operation in recent years. Mr Trump’s officials are unlikely to have much appetite for joint action. He has suggested designating Mexico’s gangs as foreign terrorist organisations to give his government still more leeway to go after them.
In private, Mexican officials have digested Mr Trump’s win with resignation. “Unlike 2016, it was not a surprise,” says one. Ms Sheinbaum has responded with optimism, announcing that Mexico has “no reason to worry” about the United States’ president-elect. She felt the need to emphasise that Mexico is a “free, independent, sovereign country”. Nonetheless, she will have to play Mr Trump’s transactional game and come up with offers tempting enough to fend off tariffs.
即使是特朗普总统最夸张的威胁——轰炸墨西哥的犯罪团伙以阻止芬太尼（一种去年在美国导致约75,000人死亡的合成阿片类药物）的生产——对于面对特朗普第二任期的墨西哥官员来说，可能不再显得像是一场空谈。近年来，美国的执法机构越来越多地在没有墨西哥合作的情况下对抗墨西哥的犯罪集团。特朗普政府的官员们不太可能对联合行动有太多兴趣。他提出了将墨西哥的团伙定性为外国kongbu组织，以便给予他的政府更大的自由度去打击他们。
在私下里，墨西哥官员们已经以一种无可奈何的态度接受了特朗普的胜利。“与2016年不同，这次并不意外，”一位官员表示。谢因鲍姆女士则以乐观的态度回应，宣布墨西哥对美国当选总统“没有理由担心”。她强调了墨西哥是一个“自由、独立、主权的国家”。尽管如此，她将不得不应对特朗普的交易策略，并提出足够吸引人的提议来避免关税。
Mexico does have some leverage, especially on migration, which it has proved willing to use. The number of irregular migrants crossing the border with the United States fell by 77% between December 2023 and August this year (see chart), largely thanks to enforcement by Mexico. Ms Sheinbaum could do as Mr Trump wants and deploy even more soldiers to deal with migrants. Mexico is no longer just a route through which migrants reach the United States, but a destination in its own right too. So Mexico’s interests could converge with Mr Trump’s, says Ms Abed. Indeed, one Mexican official says they would be “delighted” if the United States managed to stem chaos at the border.
墨西哥确实在移民问题上拥有一定的影响力，并且已经显示出愿意使用这种影响力。从2023年12月到今年8月，非法越境进入美国的移民数量下降了77%，这在很大程度上归功于墨西哥的执法行动。谢因鲍姆女士可以按照特朗普的要求，部署更多的士兵来处理移民问题。墨西哥不再仅仅是移民前往美国的通道，它本身也成为了一个移民目的地。因此，墨西哥的利益可能与特朗普的利益相吻合，阿贝德女士这样表示。实际上，一位墨西哥官员表示，如果美国能够成功遏制边境的混乱，他们会“非常高兴”。
But it is unclear how much more Mexico can do. Even with better technology and a lot more money it will not be possible to stop everyone who wishes to pass through its large and varied territory to cross the 3,200km-long (2,000-mile) border with the United States. It would be more controversial to work with Mr Trump to accept back deported Mexicans, breaking up families. “Giving something for nothing is very dangerous,” says Mr Castañeda.
On trade, Mexico wants to convince Mr Trump that it can be a useful part of a regional bloc to out-compete China by working together. Officials say they will encourage companies to source more of their components from Mexico rather than China. That is easier said than done, especially when many of those importing Chinese parts are American companies.
On security, Ms Sheinbaum is more serious than her predecessor about tackling Mexico’s gangs. Her security policy, which includes better intelligence-gathering and information-sharing, offers opportunities for bilateral co-operation, too.
Mr Trump will not be able to do everything he has threatened. But even if he carries out a fraction of it, Mexico is in for a rough ride.
墨西哥在移民问题上确实有一定的影响力，并且已经显示出愿意采取行动。尽管墨西哥可能无法完全阻止所有想要穿越其广阔领土的人，但墨西哥已经采取了措施来减少非法移民的数量。从2023年12月到今年8月，非法越境进入美国的移民数量下降了77%，这在很大程度上归功于墨西哥的执法行动。谢因鲍姆女士可以按照特朗普的要求，部署更多的士兵来处理移民问题。墨西哥不再仅仅是移民前往美国的通道，它本身也成为了一个移民目的地。因此，墨西哥的利益可能与特朗普的利益相吻合。实际上，一位墨西哥官员表示，如果美国能够成功遏制边境的混乱，他们会“非常高兴”。
在贸易方面，墨西哥希望说服特朗普，通过合作，它可以成为区域集团的一部分，以超越中国。墨西哥官员表示，他们将鼓励公司更多地从墨西哥而不是中国采购组件。这虽然是一个挑战，尤其是当许多进口中国零件的公司是美国公司时，但墨西哥正努力成为一个更有吸引力的生产基地。
在安全方面，谢因鲍姆女士比她的前任更认真地对待打击墨西哥的犯罪团伙问题。她的安全政策，包括更好的情报收集和信息共享，为双边合作提供了机会。墨西哥和美国已经宣布将启动全新的安全合作战略，取代以武力打击犯罪为核心的“梅里达倡议”，从多方面合作打击暴力及有组织犯罪。
尽管特朗普可能无法完全实施他所威胁的所有措施，但即使只是部分实施，墨西哥也将面临艰难的挑战。
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