KEY POINTS（核心要点）
Current state of the economy:
• The Chinese economy faced significant growth headwinds in 2024, and policymakers finally started more forceful easing in late September.
• The November US election outcome suggests additional growth headwinds from US tariffs next year.
当前经济状况：
• 2024年，中国经济面临显著的增长阻力，政策制定者最终在9月底开始实施更为有力的宽松政策。
• 11月美国大选的结果暗示明年美国关税将带来额外的增长阻力。
2025 macro views:
• We assume that 20% additional US tariffs on Chinese goods in 2025, expect USDCNY to rise to 7.4/7.5 in 3/6 months, continued RRR/policy rate cuts and augmented fiscal deficit to widen by 1.8pp of GDP in 2025 vs. 2024.
2025年宏观观点：
• 我们假设2025年美国对中国商品额外征收20%的关税，预计美元兑人民币（USDCNY）在3至6个月内升至7.4/7.5，持续的存款准备金率（RRR）/政策利率下调，以及财政赤字增加1.8个百分点，相对于2024年的GDP。
• We expect exports to be relatively stable, declines in property investment to continue, and consumption (especially goods consumption) to outperform. Growth of government consumption and investment is likely to accelerate.
• While our 2025 growth forecast (4.5%) is in line with the consensus, our inflation projections are notably below (CPI 0.8%; PPI 0.0%).
Medium-to long-term views:
• We remain cautious over the medium to long term on China real GDP growth due to 3D challenges (demographics, debt, and de-risking).
• 我们预计出口将相对稳定，房地产投资的下降将继续，消费（尤其是商品消费）将表现更好。政府消费和投资的增长可能会加速。
• 虽然我们对2025年的增长预测（4.5%）与普遍预期一致，但我们的通胀预测明显低于预期（消费者价格指数CPI为0.8%；生产者价格指数PPI为0.0%）。
中长期观点：
• 由于3D挑战（人口结构、债务和去风险化），我们对中国实际GDP的中长期增长持谨慎态度。
完整报告请在今日公众号通知中查看
谢谢理解
