Elon Musk is no Kissinger, but may help improve U.S.-China relations
埃隆·马斯克不是基辛格，但可能有助于改善美中关系
Elon Musk’s relationship with Donald Trump has fueled expectations that he could soften the U.S. President-elect’s policy stance toward Beijing, but experts caution against putting too much stock into the Tesla CEO.
埃隆·马斯克与唐纳德·特朗普的关系引发了人们对他可能软化美国当选总统对北京的政策立场的期望，但专家们警告说，不要对特斯拉首席执行官寄予过多的期望。
The billionaire was one of Trump’s top campaign donors and could reportedly get a cabinet or advisory role at the White House.
In the lead-up to the elections, their relationship had piqued Beijing’s interest due to Musk’s close ties to China, where his company, Tesla, runs a massive “gigafactory.”
这位亿万富翁是特朗普最大的竞选捐助者之一，据报道，他可能会在白宫担任内阁或顾问的角色。在大选之前，他们的关系引起了北京方面的兴趣，因为马斯克与中国关系密切，他的公司特斯拉（Tesla）在中国经营着一家大型“超级工厂”。
“There has been widespread curiosity in China the past few months about whether Musk could be the new Kissinger, helping broker a deal between Washington and Beijing,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business & Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Whether this is an ingenious insight that will help keep relations from imploding or part of an unrealistic soothing scenario Chinese want to tell themselves is hard to know at this point,” he added.
战略与国际研究中心中国商业与经济事务高级顾问兼信托主席斯科特·肯尼迪（Scott Kennedy）表示：“过去几个月，在中国，人们普遍好奇马斯克是否会成为新的基辛格，帮助撮合华盛顿和北京之间的交易。”
他补充说：“目前很难知道，这是一种有助于防止两国关系破裂的巧妙洞见，还是中国人想告诉自己的一种不切实际的安抚方案的一部分。”
U.S. diplomat Henry Kissinger, who passed away last year, is credited with normalizing relations between the U.S. and China, beginning with his first visit to Beijing in July 1971.
Kissinger was deeply respected in China and continued to meet with its leaders as an unofficial diplomat in efforts to promote warmer relations between the two countries. Just months before Kissinger died in November 2023, he met with Chinese President in Beijing in July 2023.
去年去世的美国外交家基辛格被认为是美中关系正常化的功臣，他于1971年7月首次访问北京。
基辛格在中国深受尊敬，并继续以非官方外交官的身份与中国领导人会面，努力促进两国关系的升温。就在2023年11月基辛格去世前几个月，他于2023年7月在北京会见了中国领导人。
Hopes that Musk could fill the hole left by Kissinger have arisen as he increasingly engages with high-ranking officials in China, where he established Tesla as the country’s first wholly foreign-owned automaker in 2018.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO during his last visit in April met Chinese leader, who cited Tesla as an example of successful trade cooperation between Beijing and Washington, according to state media.
2018年，马斯克在中国创立了特斯拉，成为中国第一家外商独资汽车制造商。
据官方媒体报道，这位特斯拉和SpaceX的首席执行官上次访问中国是在今年4月，他会见了中国高层，特斯拉被称作是北京和华盛顿之间成功贸易合作的典范。
Wang Yiwei, director of the institute of international relations at Renmin University, told CNBC that Musk is seen as a business person who understands both China and the U.S.
This could see him help push for some flexibility with or even cancellation of the strict tariff hikes Trump has threatened to place on China-made products, Wang said. He hoped Musk’s work in manufacturing could enable a deal for Chinese companies to build factories in the U.S.
中国人民大学国际关系研究所所长王义伟在接受CNBC采访时表示，马斯克被视为一位了解中国和美国的商人。
王说，这可能会看到他帮助推动一些灵活性，甚至取消特朗普威胁要对中国制造的产品征收的严格关税。他希望马斯克在制造业方面的工作能够促成中国公司在美国建厂的交易。
Musk has voiced concerns over tensions between the two countries and had criticized the Joe Biden administration when it raised tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100% earlier this year. The Biden administration has rolled out a raft of policies aimed at bringing manufacturers of high-end tech back to the U.S., many of which Trump is expected to uphold.
马斯克对两国之间的紧张关系表示担忧，并在今年早些时候将中国电动汽车的关税提高到100%时批评了乔·拜登政府。拜登政府推出了一系列旨在将高端科技制造商带回美国的政策，其中许多政策预计将得到特朗普的支持。
Businessman, not diplomat
商人而非外交官
In order to make a real impact on U.S. policy, one businessman, even the richest in the world, will not be enough to improve relations the way Kissinger was once able, said Wang Huiyao, founder of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization.
Instead, Wang said that a group of prominent business and thought leaders, including Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook and Blackstone Group’s Stephen Schwarzman, can act as a “group of Kissingers.”
北京智库中国与全球化研究中心的创始人王辉耀说，为了对美国的政策产生真正的影响，一个商人，即使是世界上最富有的商人，也不足以像基辛格曾经那样改善两国关系。
相反，王说，一群杰出的商业和思想领袖，包括埃隆·马斯克，苹果公司的蒂姆·库克和黑石集团的斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼，可以作为一个“基辛格集团”。
They may not reach the same impact as Kissinger, given the more complex period, he said, though they could help stabilize relations.
Cook and Schwarzman also regularly visit leaders in China, where they are often highlighted by Beijing as examples of positive China-U.S. business and trade relations.
Dewardric McNeal, Longview Global managing director and senior policy analyst, told CNBC, “While it’s true that China has occasionally used influential Americans as unofficial channels, it’s a stretch to view Musk as a modern-day Kissinger.”
他说，考虑到更为复杂的时期，他们可能不会像基辛格那样产生同样的影响，尽管他们可能有助于稳定两国关系。
库克和苏世民还定期访问中国领导人，他们经常被北京方面强调为中美积极经贸关系的典范。
朗维尤全球董事总经理兼高级政策分析师Dewardric McNeal告诉CNBC，“虽然中国偶尔会利用有影响力的美国人作为非官方渠道，但将马斯克视为现代基辛格有点过分。”
For these “informal intermediaries,” the primary obligation is to shareholders, not to national interests, he said, adding that active political involvement can lead to “conflicts of interest” and places the business leaders under intense scrutiny, if diplomacy fails.
During Trump’s first term, China had already attempted to establish “back channels” with prominent American businessmen, including entrepreneur and real estate developer Steve Wynn, in hopes of influencing policy, McNeal said.
他说，对于这些“非正式中介”来说，主要的义务是对股东，而不是对国家利益。他还说，如果外交手段失败，积极的zz参与可能导致“利益冲突”，并使商界领袖受到严密的审查。
麦克尼尔说，在特朗普的第一个任期内，中国已经试图与包括企业家和房地产开发商史蒂夫·韦恩在内的著名美国商人建立“秘密渠道”，希望影响政策。
Such efforts appeared to have had little effect on Trump’s approach to China and led to the Justice Department issuing a lawsuit that sought to register Wynn as a foreign agent over his alleged lobbying work on behalf of the Chinese government.
This time around, Trump has announced his intention to impose a blanket tariff ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports, along with additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on products imported from China.
这些努力似乎对特朗普对中国的态度几乎没有影响，并导致司法部提起诉讼，试图将永利注册为外国代理人，因为他涉嫌代表中国政府进行游说工作。
这一次，特朗普宣布他打算对所有进口产品征收10%至20%的全面关税，同时对从中国进口的产品征收60%至100%的额外关税。
“Musk might open certain doors, but none that hard-nosed committed diplomacy won’t also open,” said McNeal, adding that pinning diplomatic hopes on such a figure, whose primary allegiance is to his own ventures, could be a miscalculation.
“Musk’s unpredictability and strong, sometimes controversial views don’t necessarily align with either country’s diplomatic or strategic interests.”
麦克尼尔说：“马斯克可能会打开某些门，但任何一扇务实的外交都不会打开。”他补充说，把外交希望寄托在这样一个主要忠于自己企业的人物身上，可能是一种误判。
“马斯克的不可预测性和强烈的、有时颇具争议的观点不一定符合两国的外交或战略利益。”
CNBC
