China Economics
What Does Money and Credit Data Tell Us About Stimulus Impact?
CITI’S TAKE
中国经济
货币和信贷数据对刺激影响的启示是什么？
花旗观点
Money and credit data came in mixed for October, with new loans and new TSF missing while M1 and M2 growth beating. Such a combination showed different paces of policy transmission this time round in our view, with equity market faster than property market, and property faster than real economy. Fiscal policy deployment could have accelerated in October as well despite private demand staying soft. Ongoing policy easing is rather essential to engineer property stabilization and turn around private demand. The monetary policy pivot is once again confirmed by the PBoC.The current fiscal package may have muted direct impact and not reflationary but the year-end policy meetings could offer more clues for 2025.
10月份的货币和信贷数据显示出复杂的局面：新增贷款和社会融资总额未达到预期，而M1和M2的增长却超出了预期。我们认为，这种数据组合反映了当前政策传导的不同速度：股市的反应速度超过了房地产市场，而房地产市场的反应速度又超过了实体经济。尽管私人需求依然疲软，但10月份财政政策的实施可能有所加快。为了实现房地产市场的稳定和私人需求的复苏，持续的政策宽松显得尤为重要。中国人民银行再次确认了货币政策的转变。当前的财政政策可能不会直接产生显著影响，也不具备推动通胀的能力，但年底的政策会议可能会为2025年的经济政策提供更多线索。
New credit numbers came in below expectations, while growth of money base surprised on the upside in October. New RMB loans recorded RMB500bn,(Citi/Mkt:RMB700bn,Prior:RMB1,590bn).New TSF missed expectations at RMB1,396bn(Citi/Mkt:RMB1,600bn/RMB1,540bn,Prior:3,763bn).In contrast,growth of M1 and M2 surprised on the upside. Contraction in M1 growth narrowed to-6.1%YoY(Citi/Mkt:-7.4/-7.0%YoY,Prior:-7.4%YoY),while M2 growth inched up further to 7.0%YoY(Citi/Mkt:6.9/7.0%YoY,Prior:6.8%YoY).We see four messages from this set of credit numbers regarding the progress of latest stimulus.
10月份的新信贷数据未达预期，而货币供应量的增长却意外地超出了预期。新增人民币贷款为5000亿元人民币，低于花旗银行和市场预期的7000亿元，也低于前月的15900亿元。新的社会融资总额（TSF）为13960亿元，同样低于花旗银行和市场预期的16000亿元至15400亿元，也低于前月的37630亿元。与此相反，M1和M2的增长超出了预期。M1的同比下降幅度缩小至6.1%，而M2的同比增长则小幅上升至7.0%。从这些信贷数据中，我们可以看到最新刺激措施进展的四个信号。
Equity market rally continued to push M2 growth higher in October. It could also be responsible for the discrepancy between credit and money data.Deposits at security companies are counted in M2, and relatedly, deposits of NBFIs rose RMB1,080bn,another strong reading after RMB910bn in September.The positive sentiment spillover from equity markets could have impacting asset allocation decisions. On a side note, the two newly set-up tools for equity market are still in the early stage of deployment. RMB50bn of the RMB500bn SFISF(the PBoC’s swap line with NBFls) were used in October(PBoC,Oct 21) and there is no update on the share buyback relending so far.
10月份股市的持续上涨继续推高了M2的增长，这也可能是信贷和货币数据之间差异的原因。证券公司的存款计入M2，非银行金融机构的存款增加了1080亿元，继9月份增加910亿元后再次出现强劲增长。股市的积极情绪可能影响了资产配置决策。此外，为股市新设立的两个工具仍处于初期部署阶段。10月份，央行与非银行金融机构的5000亿元货币互换额度中有500亿元被使用，而关于股票回购再贷款的进展尚未更新。
Fiscal policy deployment could have accelerated. Issuance of government bonds hit RMB1,050bn in October, lower than last year when issuance of Special Refinancing Bonds(SRBs). Deployment of fiscal funds could have accelerated. Fiscal deposits rose by RMB595bn in October, a month of tax collections, only half of the average of RMB1,207bn in 2021-23.Drawdown of corporate deposits were slightly smaller..Looking ahead, with the NPCSC adding new bond quota for this year, governments could still have remaining quota of RMB3,130bn for this year,vs. actual issuance of RMB2,084bn last November-December. A strong start of issuance in 2025 is both likely and plausible.
财政政策的实施可能已经加快。10月份政府债券发行量为1050亿元，低于去年特殊再融资债券的发行量。财政资金的部署可能已经加速，10月份财政存款增加了595亿元，这是税收征收的月份，仅为2021至2023年平均1207亿元的一半。企业存款的减少幅度略小。展望未来，随着全国人大常委员会为今年新增债券额度，政府今年仍可能有3130亿元的剩余额度，而去年11月至12月的实际发行量为2084亿元。2025年初的发行量强劲且合理。
The property sector could be showing some very early signs of stabilization.New household long-term loans recorded RMB110bn, admittedly still a low reading but this is the first year-on-year increase since this January-February.Mortgage refinancing/repricing could have started to alleviate early repayment.The improve in M1 growth could also be thanks to pick up in property sales.Contraction in property sales narrowed to-3.8%YoY in top-30 cities from-32.4%YoY in September and increased at double-digit pace so far in November.
房地产行业可能显示出一些非常早期的稳定迹象。新的家庭长期贷款为110亿元，虽然仍然是一个低值，但这却是自今年1-2月以来的首次同比增长。抵押贷款的再融资或重新定价可能已经开始缓解提前还款的压力。M1增长的改善也可能得益于房地产销售的回升。前30个城市的房地产销售同比下降从9月份的32.4%缩小至3.8%，并在11月以两位数的速度增长。
Corporate credit demand could still be weak despite potential issues in measurement.Corporate Long-term loans recorded RMB170bn,the second lowest reading within the year, while its bond financing was not really stronger at RMB102bn-both are lower than last year’s level. Short-term loans contracted by RMB190bn,while bills financing recorded RMB169bn vs.RMB318bn last October. Those numbers could be increasingly difficult to interpret with a new round of debt swap. For October, low headline number as well as declining bills discount rate didn’t indicate any upside in our view.
尽管可能存在测量问题，但企业信贷需求可能仍然疲软。企业长期贷款为170亿元，是今年第二低的读数，而其债券融资为102亿元，两者都低于去年的水平。短期贷款减少了190亿元，而票据融资为169亿元，相比之下去年10月为318亿元。随着新一轮债务置换的进行，这些数字可能越来越难以解释。对于10月份来说，低总体数字以及下降的票据贴现率并没有显示出任何上行的迹象。
The October’s credit data pointed to different paces of policy transmission in our view,with equity market faster than property market, and property faster than real economy. Fiscal policy deployment is accelerating, while private demand could be slower to respond. On going policy efforts are rather essential to engineer a stabilization of the property sector and turn around private ahead, the monetary pivot is once again confirmed by the MPR, and the PBoC’s forward guidance of 25-50bps RRR cut within the year is still valid in our view with government bond issuance. The current fiscal package may have muted direct
在我们看来，10月份的信贷数据指向了政策传导的不同速度，股市快于房地产市场，房地产市场快于实体经济。财政政策的实施正在加速，而私人需求可能反应较慢。持续的政策努力对于实现房地产行业的稳定和私人需求的转变至关重要。货币政策的转变再次得到了货币政策委员会的确认，我们认为中国人民银行关于年内降准25-50个基点的前瞻性指引仍然有效，特别是随着政府债券的发行。当前的财政方案可能直接影响有限。
