本周各大投行研报合集（高盛，大摩，摩根大通，野村，瑞银等）24年11月第一周
高盛，瑞银UBS，BNP法巴，法国农信，Jefferies「国际投行观点每周精华」24年10月第五周
How to protect India’s shareholder capitalism from itself
A surge in equity investment is threatened by risky derivatives trading
如何维护印度的股份制经济不受其内部行为的损害
股权投资的增长正遭遇高风险衍生品交易的挑战。
OVER THE past five years India’s financial markets have undergone an extraordinary transformation. Rapid economic growth has been accompanied by a booming stockmarket, which has risen by around 80% in dollar terms. Tens of millions of Indians have become investors for the first time. The world’s most populous country is becoming a nation of shareholders.
This revolution is welcome, but financial regulators are worried about sky-high retail use of speculative equity derivatives as markets have taken off. They are right.
Rising incomes are not the boom’s only cause. Digital payments and trading apps mean that any Indian with a phone and cash can own slivers of listed firms. Since 2019 the share of households that own stocks has risen from 7% to 20%.
过去五年，印度金融市场经历了一场非凡的变革。随着经济的快速增长，股市也迎来了繁荣，以美元计价的股市涨幅达到了约80%。数以千万计的印度人首次投身股市，成为投资者。这个全球人口最多的国家正在逐渐转变为一个股东社会。
这场变革固然令人振奋，但金融监管机构对于市场起飞时散户投资者对投机性股票衍生品的过度使用感到忧虑，他们的担心不无道理。
股市的繁荣不仅仅因为收入的增加。数字支付和交易应用程序的普及使得任何拥有手机和现金的印度人都能够轻松购买上市公司的股份。自2019年以来，持有股票的家庭比例已经从7%增长到了20%。
Households can expect better long-term returns from listed companies than gold, property or bank deposits. For companies, a deeper capital market has improved funding. India generates only 3% of the world’s GDP, but has been home to nearly a third of all public listings so far this year, which accounts for a tenth of the capital raised in IPOs globally.
Unusually among emerging economies, India has successfully translated economic growth into shareholder returns, letting ordinary investors benefit. Stocks there have roared since 2019, even as those in China have fallen by 15%. Analysts at Franklin Templeton, an asset manager, reckon that the correlation between Indian company earnings and GDP growth is closer than in any other emerging market.
家庭投资上市公司，相比投资黄金、房地产或银行存款，可以期待获得更好的长期回报。对于企业来说，资本市场的深化改善了融资环境。尽管印度的GDP仅占全球的3%，但今年迄今为止，印度几乎占据了全球所有公开上市的近三分之一，这些上市活动在全球IPO募集资本中占比达到了十分之一。
与其他新兴经济体不同，印度成功地将经济增长转化为了股东回报，让普通投资者也能从中受益。自2019年以来，印度股市表现强劲，而同期中国股市却下跌了15%。资产管理公司富兰克林邓普顿的分析师估计，印度公司盈利与GDP增长之间的关联度在所有新兴市场中是最高的。
But the good news comes with a health warning. Indian stocks are priced at 23 times their expected earnings over the next year, higher than those in America, but in a market with far fewer fast-growing technology stocks. No wonder foreign investors are now pulling out. Even more eye-catching is the explosion of equity derivatives. Four-fifths of equity futures and options trades in the world now take place in India.
Derivatives are useful. They can help companies and investors hedge against all kinds of risk. But in India much of the volume comes from new retail traders. A study from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the country’s financial regulator, suggests that 91% of individual Indian investors in this market lose money. That is why SEBI has imposed new restrictions, some of which take effect this month. These will shrink the number of options contracts that brokers can offer, raise minimum contract sizes, and increase margin requirements on the day that contracts expire.
然而，这个好消息也伴随着一个警示。印度股市的市盈率达到了23倍，超过了美国股市，尽管印度市场中快速增长的科技股数量远不如美国。因此，外国投资者开始撤资也就不足为奇了。更令人瞩目的是股票衍生品的激增，全球有五分之四的股票期货和期权交易现在都发生在印度。
衍生品本身是有益的，它们可以帮助公司和投资者对冲各种风险。但在印度，大部分交易量来自新的散户投资者。印度金融监管机构——证券交易委员会（SEBI）的一项研究显示，91%的个人投资者在这一市场中亏损。这也是为什么SEBI已经实施了新的限制措施，其中一些措施将从本月开始生效。这些措施将减少经纪人可以提供的股票期权合约数量，提高合约的最低规模，并在合约到期时增加保证金要求。
The bar to putting limits on a market with willing buyers and sellers should be high. Short-term options contracts may be little more than a bet on whether the price of a stock will rise or fall on a given day, but investors should be free to make losses. Nonetheless, India’s regulators are right to be watchful.
The boom in derivatives trading is drawing in people who are not financially literate. Trading is also big enough to endanger financial stability. Traders hop from one instrument to another as they expire, causing spikes in buying and selling, which both SEBI and the Indian central bank worry are amplifying volatility in the underlying stockmarket. The leverage taken on such options could also magnify downturns when markets shift against expectations, as traders are forced to sell securities to cover their losses.
对于一个买卖双方都愿意交易的市场来说，设置限制应该是非常谨慎的。短期期权合约可能只是对某一天股票价格涨跌的简单赌注，投资者应该有权利去承担自己的投资亏损。然而，印度的监管机构保持警觉是有道理的。
衍生品交易的热潮正在吸引那些对金融知识了解不多的人群。交易量之大已经到了可能威胁到金融稳定性的地步。交易者在各种金融工具之间频繁切换，随着它们的到期，这导致了买卖活动的激增，印度证券交易委员会（SEBI）和印度中央银行担心这种行为可能会加剧股市的波动。此外，这些期权交易中的杠杆作用还可能在市场走势不如预期时放大市场的下跌，因为交易者为了弥补亏损，可能会被迫出售证券。
First-time investors have yet to face a slump; when it comes, regulators will face pressure to act. Their focus should be on financial stability rather than preventing losses. That would be the best way to protect India’s shareholder revolution.
新入市的投资者尚未经历过市场低迷；当低迷到来时，监管机构将面临采取行动的压力。他们应该将重点放在金融稳定性上，而不是防止损失。这将是保护印度股东权益的最佳方式。
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