【国君国际策略】港股盈利能力改善，投资回报率提升——2024H1业绩分析
财富
财经
2024-09-10 09:57
中国香港
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港股主要指数业绩表现：2024H1 净利润同比保持正增长，ROE-ttm较 2023 年改善，净利润率-ttm 持续上升，负债率和资产周转率边际下降。2024H1 港股恒生指数/恒生科技指数/恒生国企指数净利润（TTM）分别为人民币28,442.0/
3,423.5/ 29,709.8 亿元，同比增速分别为2.2%/ 15.4%/ 2.9%，环比分别-2.5%/ -19.7%/ -1.3%，较 2023H2 有所下滑。从净资产收益率的角度来看，中资港股 2024H1 ROE（TTM）为 10.9%，较 2023H2 上升 0.8 个百分点。2024H1 中资港股 ROE 同比增速为 3.2%，较 2023H2 上升 12.9 个百分点，由负转正。净利润率-ttm 均边际回升，同比增速加快；资产负债率和周转率边际下降。港股行业业绩对比：一级行业中金融/工业/能源行业净利润为主要贡献项，可选消费/公用事业的盈利增长速度较快。二级行业中红利相关的银行/能源等行业整体盈利规模较大，成长风格的商业服务/医疗保健/汽车等行业盈利增长速度较快。较 2023H2 的边际变化来看，一级行业的工业/日常消费/医疗保健/材料改善幅度较大。其中，日常消费/医疗保健/材料板块连续两个半年度净利润增速保持改善，且回升速度较快。二级行业的商业和专业服务/医疗保健/材料/银行/食品饮料改善幅度较大。值得注意的是，这五个行业已连续两个半年度净利润增速保持改善，且回升速度较快。分行业来看，红利板块的石化/通信/公用事业盈利稳定增长，银行营收承压盈利能力减弱，成长板块中，电子半导体/汽车盈利能力提升，医药板块盈利分化，传媒龙头较优。1）石油化工：全球制造业复苏带动行业需求稳步恢复。2）通信：通信设备板块受益于规模效应提升和技术更新迭代，盈利能力开始反弹。3）公用事业：电力板块利润大增，火电盈利修复至高位，水电同比高增，核电维持稳健。4）银行：受需求下行及货币政策宽松等影响，净息差持续下行，盈利能力减弱。5）传媒：行业整体在收入端维持增长，但因渠道成本提升、税收等因素，子板块广告营销、游戏和出版的利润端表现不理想。6）电子：受益于产业链复苏及供应链转移，半导体板块业绩显著提升。7）汽车：出口量上升且中高端市场自主品牌的销量稳步提升，行业营收/净利润保持稳定，盈利能力稳中有升。8）医药：创新药/生物制品/原料药营收/净利润同时上升，疫苗/CXO 等板块下降。中报后恒生科技盈利预期提升，2024 年现金分红与回购规模增加。港股重点企业中同程旅行（00780 HK）/小鹏汽车（09868 HK）/商汤（00020 HK）/比亚迪电子（00285 HK）/小米集团（01810 HK）的Wind 市场一致预测营收增长率最高，预测净利润增速金山软件（03888 HK）/平安好医生（01833 HK）/快手（01024 HK）/美团（03690 HK）/舜宇光学科技（02382 HK）位居前五。港股 2024 上半年现金分红总额较 2023H2 提升幅度较大，高现金分红企业主要集中于银行/通信/非银/能源等行业，2024H1 回购规模前十的企业回购总额为1,139.6 亿港元，较 2023H2 前十回购总额 707.0 亿港元上升 61.2%。其中，腾讯控股/汇丰控股回购规模较 2023H2 大幅上升 58.8%/ 24.8%。港股回购规模加大，一定程度上传递出市场对港股未来走势的信心。风险因素：1）国内经济复苏进度不及预期；2）海外经济衰退预期反复扰动；3）美联储及海外央行货币政策宽松幅度与节奏不及预期。
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1）国内经济复苏进度不及预期；2）海外经济衰退预期反复扰动；3）美联储及海外央行货币政策宽松幅度与节奏不及预期。
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