Key Changes to US Forecast
财富
财经
2024-06-13 10:31
中国香港
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We would like to make some key changes to the forecast based on the June
FOMC and May CPI report:- The Fed dot plots now suggest only one rate cut
in 2024, down from three previously. This reflects a more hawkish stance from
the Fed.
- However, the market still expects two 25-basis
point rate cuts in 2024, in contrast to the Fed's outlook.
- We now think one rate cut in December is more
likely, with the possibility of another cut in September or November not ruled
out. This is a change from our previous view of rate cuts in September and
December.
- We maintain our forecast
that 10-year US Treasury yields will trade in a range of 4.30-4.70% in the
second half of 2024.
- The US dollar and euro
remain favored, and we still expect USD/JPY to reach 160 mark in the coming
months.
- USD/CNY is expected to
remain largely stable, with 7.30 as a key resistance level.
- Once the Fed delivers a rate cut, we anticipate further easing from
the PBOC in the form of policy rate and RRR cuts.
Overall, the key
changes reflect a more hawkish near-term outlook from the Fed, although the
market appears to be discounting this to some degree based on the latest
inflation data. We have adjusted our rate hike timing but maintained our
broader yield and FX forecasts.![]()
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