麦格理预计明年焦煤价格为225美元/吨
Macquarie sees coking coal at $225/t next year
Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）获悉，麦格理的一份报告指出，明年供应的少量过剩预计将导致焦煤平均价格达到225美元/吨。
A small surplus in supply next year is expected to result in an average coking price of $225/tonne, Kallanish notes from a Macquarie report.
麦格理表示，考虑到季节性因素，昆士兰州与天气有关的问题往往发生在第一季度，因此该公司仍然认为2025年第一季度将是全年最强劲的时期，达到240美元/吨。
It says that it still sees the first quarter of 2025 to be the strongest of the year at $240/t, factoring in seasonality as weather related issues in Queensland tend to occur during this quarter.
然而，适度的过剩已将2027-28年的价格下调至240美元/吨和230美元/吨，只有当收支平衡比目前预计的更加紧张时，价格才有可能达到300美元/吨以上。
Modest surpluses, however, have downgraded prices in 2027-28 to $240/t and $230/t, with the market only likely to hit above $300/t if the balance tightens more acutely than currently foreseen.
麦格理指出，根据蒙古政府制定的8,330万吨原煤目标，预计明年的焦煤供应量将进一步增加。麦格理认为，鉴于2024年第一季度的卡车日运行率低于当前水平，这一目标是可行的。
For next year, Macquarie notes a further increase in met coal supply is expected based on the 83.3 million tonnes raw coal target set by the Mongolia government. It thinks this is feasible given that daily truck run-rate was lower than current in Q1 of 2024.
该研究机构还认为，如果不进行安全检查，中国明年的国内煤炭产量可能会增加。
The research house also sees China’s domestic coal production next year would likely increase given no safety checks.
麦格理表示：“总的来说，在中国煤炭需求以及 JKT（日本、韩国和中国台湾）和欧洲需求减弱的同时，印度的需求有望增长并缓解下降趋势。”
“On the balance, while China coal demand, as well as JKT (Japan, South Korean and Taiwan) and Europe demand wanes, India’s demand is expected to grow and cushion the decline,” Macquarie says.
点击下方图片了解更多详情
Kallanish 网站
日报 周报 月报 会议
定制报告
广告虚位以待
欢迎咨询微信: Kallanish
