BNEF称锂离子电池价格降至历史新低
Lithium-ion battery price drops to record low: BNEF
彭博新能源财经（BNEF）表示，受电池制造产能过剩和电动汽车销售放缓等因素影响，锂离子电池组的年度价格已降至2017年以来的最低点。
The annual price of lithium-ion battery packs has dropped to its lowest since 2017 due to factors including cell manufacturing overcapacity and a slowdown in EV sales, according to BloombergNEF (BNEF).
Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）获悉，今年锂离子电池组的体积加权平均价格为每千瓦时115美元，同比下降20%。该研究机构在周二的一份报告中称，规模经济、金属和组件价格低廉以及成本更低的磷酸铁锂（LFP）电池的采用等因素也是价格下降的原因。
Kallanish understands the volume-weighted average price for lithium-ion battery packs this year was $115 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) – down 20% year-on-year. Factors such as economies of scale, low metal and component prices, and the uptake of lower-cost lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries are also behind the price drop, the research provider says in a new report on Tuesday.
在过去两年中，电池制造商大幅提高产能，以应对电动汽车和固定储能领域对电池需求的增长。然而，电动汽车的销售却低于预期。这导致市场产能过剩，目前全球电池芯生产能力已达到3.1太瓦时，是2024年锂离子电池年需求量的2.5倍多。
In the past two years, battery manufacturers significantly expanded their production capacity in anticipation of increased demand for batteries for EV and stationary storage sectors. However, EV sales have been slower than expected. This led to an overcapacity in the market, with the current fully commissioned global battery-cell manufacturing capacity reaching 3.1 terawatt-hours – over 2.5 times the annual demand for lithium-ion batteries in 2024.
BNEF电池技术团队负责人Evelina Stoikou评论说：“与电池金属价格相比，今年电池芯的价格下降幅度更大，这表明电池制造商的利润正在受到挤压。小型制造商尤其面临降低电池价格以争夺市场份额的压力。”
“The price drop for battery cells this year was greater compared with that seen in battery metal prices, indicating that margins for battery manufacturers are being squeezed,” comments Evelina Stoikou, the head of BNEF’s battery technology team. “Smaller manufacturers face particular pressure to lower cell prices to fight for market share.”
报告显示，中国的电池组平均价格最低，为94美元/千瓦时。报告指出：“美国和欧洲的电池组价格分别高出31%和48%，反映出这些市场相对不成熟，生产成本较高，产量较低。”
According to the report, China had the lowest average battery pack prices at $94/kWh. “Packs in the US and Europe were 31% and 48% higher, reflecting the relative immaturity of these markets, as well as higher production costs and lower volumes,” it notes.
该机构预测，2025年电池组价格将下降3美元/千瓦时，由于研发投资、制造工艺改进和产能扩大，预计未来十年价格将进一步下降。硅和锂金属阳极、固态电解质和新型阴极材料等新技术也将在降价中发挥作用。
The organisation forecasts battery pack prices to drop by $3/kWh in 2025, with further price decline expected over the next decade due to investments in R&D, improvement in manufacturing process, and capacity expansion. New technologies such as silicon and lithium metal anodes, solid-state electrolytes, and new cathode material will also play a role in price reductions.
BNEF储能主管Yayoi Sekine补充说：“我们正在关注的一件事是，对电池成品征收新关税可能会导致扭曲的定价动态，并减缓终端产品的需求。无论如何，LFP化学物质的更高采用率、持续的市场竞争，以及技术、材料加工和制造的改进将对电池价格产生下行压力。”
“One thing we’re watching is how new tariffs on finished battery products may lead to distortionary pricing dynamics and slow end-product demand,” adds Yayoi Sekine, head of energy storage at BNEF. “Regardless, higher adoption of LFP chemistries, continued market competition, improvements in technology, material processing and manufacturing will exert downward pressure on battery prices.”
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