本文全面解析了2025年全球经济和金融市场的趋势走向，涵盖了股票市场、债券市场、外汇市场、信贷市场、新兴市场、大宗商品市场等多个领域。
What’s the outlook for global markets in 2025?
The global macroeconomic landscape could become more fluid in 2025 as markets face increasing complexity. In the coming months, the evolution of the business cycle will likely be driven by the interaction between macro dynamics and monetary policy, with added uncertainty from potential policy changes by the new U.S. administration.
In addition, technological innovation and the broadening of the AI cycle is expected to remain an important driver across markets, with monetization becoming a greater focus in the coming quarter.
“As we transition into 2025, although business cycle dynamics remain crucial to the outlook, there will be heightened focus on policy changes in the U.S. across trade, immigration, regulatory and fiscal policies. These changes should significantly influence outcomes in the U.S. and beyond,” said Hussein Malik, head of Global Research at J.P. Morgan.
All in all, J.P. Morgan Research’s baseline scenario for 2025 is one that sees global growth still remaining strong. U.S. exceptionalism is expected to bolster the U.S. dollar and buoy U.S. risky assets, but the outlook appears more mixed for Treasuries. J.P. Morgan Research is broadly constructive on credit, anticipating modest changes in high-grade spreads, but remains cautious on EM fixed income. In addition, the outlook for U.S. equities and gold is bullish, but bearish on oil and base metals.
“The backdrop of policy uncertainty combined with geopolitical risks, however, suggests increasing macroeconomic volatility and a wider range of potential outcomes,” Malik noted.
2025年全球市场展望如何？
2025年，全球经济大环境可能会更复杂多变，市场的不确定性也会进一步增加。在接下来的几个月里，宏观经济走势和货币政策之间的互动将主导商业周期的发展，美国新一届政府可能出台的政策变化，会给市场带来不少变数。
技术创新，尤其是人工智能的快速发展，依然会是推动市场前进的重要力量。在接下来的季度里，大家会更关注如何将这些创新真正变现。
摩根大通全球研究主管Hussein Malik表示：“随着我们步入2025年，商业周期的变化固然重要，但美国政策方向的调整，比如贸易、移民、监管和财政等方面，会引起更广泛的关注。这些政策变化不仅会影响美国，还会波及全球经济。”
摩根大通研究团队认为，2025年全球经济的基本面依旧强劲。美国经济的强势表现可能会继续支撑美元，并推高美国的高风险资产，但对国债市场来说，前景就没那么明朗了。摩根大通整体看好信用市场，认为高评级债券的利差波动不会太大，但对新兴市场的固定收益资产依然持谨慎态度。此外，美国股市和黄金被看好，而石油和基本金属的表现可能不太乐观。
Hussein Malik指出：“政策的不确定性加上地缘政治风险，可能会让全球经济波动加剧，市场的走势也会变得更加难以预测，”
Equity markets
In 2025, global equity markets could face an environment characterized by several cross-currents. “The central equity theme for next year is one of higher dispersion across stocks, styles, sectors, countries and themes. This should improve the opportunity set and provide a healthier backdrop for the active management industry after consecutive quarters of record narrow and unhealthy equity leadership,” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, head of Global Markets Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
De-coupling central bank paths, uneven disinflation progress and technological innovation will likely continue to drive divergence across business cycles globally. Moreover, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and evolving government policy agendas could introduce unusual complexity to the stock market outlook.
In light of these factors, the current polarized regional equity performance will likely persist going into 2025, with U.S. equities preferred over eurozone and EM. For the S&P 500, J.P. Morgan Research estimates a price target of 6,500 next year, with EPS of $270.
“The U.S. could remain the global growth engine with the business cycle in expansion, a healthy labor market, broadening of AI-related capital spending, and the prospect of robust capital markets and dealmaking activity,” Lakos-Bujas noted. “On the other hand, Europe continues to face structural challenges, while EM struggles with higher-for-longer rates, the strong U.S. dollar and incremental trade policy headwinds.”
Elsewhere, Japanese equities stand to benefit from domestic reflation with improving real wage growth, accelerating buybacks and continued corporate reforms. They could also receive a boost from strong demand and favorable currency rates on the international stage.
“Overall, as 2025 progresses, there exists the potential for a convergence trade, given extreme relative positioning, valuations and price divergences across regions. However, more clarity is first needed on global trade policies and the U.S. inflation dynamic — that the latter keeps moving in the right direction,” Lakos-Bujas said.
“We think the key risk for our base case and especially the riskier segments of the market is one where the disinflation progress fully stalls and starts to reverse, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to open doors to potential hikes later in 2025 or early 2026. If this scenario were to start playing out, we will likely have to revisit our outlook,” Lakos-Bujas added.
股票市场展望
2025年全球股票市场可能会在多重因素的交织下迎来一个复杂的局面。摩根大通全球市场策略主管 Dubravko Lakos-Bujas 表示：“明年股票市场的核心主题是分化加剧——无论是在个股、风格、行业、国家还是投资主题上。这种分化有望为投资者提供更多机会，也会为主动管理行业创造更健康的市场环境，毕竟此前多个季度的市场表现过于集中且不健康。”
各国央行政策路径的分歧、通胀下降速度的不均衡以及技术创新的推进，可能会继续拉大全球不同地区商业周期的差异。此外，地缘政治的不确定性增加，以及各国政府政策议程的演变，都将为股票市场的前景增添额外的复杂性。
受这些因素影响，区域间股票市场表现的两极化可能会延续到2025年，摩根大通更看好美国股票，而相对不太青睐欧元区和新兴市场。摩根大通预计标普500指数明年的目标点位为6,500点，每股收益（EPS）将达到270美元。
Lakos-Bujas ：“美国可能会继续扮演全球增长引擎的角色，因为美国正处于商业周期扩张阶段，劳动力市场稳健，人工智能相关资本支出不断扩大，资本市场和交易活动也有望保持活跃。”“相比之下，欧洲仍面临结构性挑战，而新兴市场则受到高利率持续时间更长、美元走强以及贸易政策压力增大的影响。”
日本股市方面，由于国内经济复苏，实际工资增长改善，股票回购加速以及企业改革持续推进，日本股市有望受益。同时，来自国际市场的强劲需求以及有利的汇率也将为日本股市提供额外助力。
Lakos-Bujas ：“总体来看，随着2025年的推进，区域市场之间的差距有可能出现收敛，主要基于极端的市场仓位、估值和价格分化现象。但这一趋势的出现需要更多的明确信号，比如全球贸易政策走向，以及美国通胀是否会持续降温。不过，通胀放缓停滞甚至反弹是当前预期面临的主要风险，这种情况可能迫使美联储在2025年底或2026年初重新考虑加息。如果这一情形真的发生，摩根大通可能需要重新评估对市场的展望。
2025 equity index price targets and EPS forecasts
图：2025年股票指数价格目标和每股收益预测
The global economy
In 2024, the global expansion proved resilient despite elevated inflation limiting central banks’ scope for rate cuts. J.P. Morgan Research’s 2025 baseline forecast incorporates an extension of this high-for-long rate environment. Global GDP is anticipated to rise 2.5% and core CPI inflation could remain sticky, remaining close to its current 3%. While consistent with limited easing in the aggregate, the global impulses that have promoted synchronization are expected to fade, and divergence among central banks is a key outlook theme.
This view contrasts with consensus projections by central banks and private forecasters, which see core CPI inflation approaching 2% and substantial easing. “Our top-down global outlook is built on an alternative narrative in which the interaction of the pandemic shock and aggressive policy responses generates reverberations that sustain elevated inflation and policy rates,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at J.P. Morgan. “This high-for-long baseline challenges consensus thinking in two important ways. First, we see goods price disinflation as having ended and do not envision a macroeconomic backdrop that supports a return of service price inflation to pre-pandemic norms. Second, we see the powerful global impulses that had promoted synchronization fading.”
Regional divergences in inflation and policy rates could become prominent as a result. Western Europe could remain a weak link and euro area policy rates are forecast to fall below 2%. In contrast, limited action is expected by the Fed and most EM central banks, which could be supportive of a “high-for-real-long” rate narrative.
Uncertainties related to U.S. policy and geopolitics loom large. If the new administration implements targeted tariffs and modest fiscal easing, the overall impact could reinforce U.S. growth outperformance and sticky global inflation. But the tail risks associated with more extreme trade and immigration policies cannot be ignored.
“Our baseline view anticipates a version of the Trump presidency that is tamer than what he campaigned on. A key risk to the outlook is if policy shifts are more extreme,” Kasman noted. “If the U.S. turns aggressively inward by sharply curtailing trade and attempting large-scale deportations, the fallout would be a far more adverse global supply shock. The disruptive impact would be amplified by retaliation and a global sentiment slide, which would be a major threat to the global expansion next year.”
Global outlook scenarios
全球经济展望
2024年，高通胀限制了央行降息的空间，全球经济扩张依旧展现出了强劲的韧性。摩根大通的2025年基准预测表明，高利率持续时间较长的环境将进一步延续。预计全球GDP将增长2.5%，核心CPI通胀可能保持顽固，维持在当前约3%的水平。虽然整体上降息空间有限，但推动全球经济同步增长的动力预计会逐渐减弱，央行政策分化将成为主要趋势之一。
这一观点与各国央行及私人机构的主流预测有所不同。后者普遍认为核心CPI通胀将接近2%，而全球央行有望大幅放松政策。摩根大通首席经济学家 Bruce Kasman 表示：“我们的全球宏观预测基于一个不同的叙事，即疫情冲击与激进政策反应的相互作用，将持续引发余波，维持高通胀和高利率环境。这种‘高利率持续时间更长’的基准预期，从两个重要方面挑战了主流观点：第一，我们认为商品价格通缩已经结束，且服务价格通胀不会回归疫情前的水平。第二，推动全球同步增长的强大动力正在消退。”
因此，通胀与政策利率的地区差异可能愈发明显。西欧可能仍是全球经济的“薄弱环节”，预计欧元区政策利率将降至2%以下。相比之下，美联储及大多数新兴市场央行的行动有限，这可能强化“高利率长期维持”的预期。
美国政策与地缘政治的不确定性也将成为影响全球经济的关键因素。如
果美国新一届政府实施有针对性的关税和适度的财政宽松，整体影响可能会进一步强化美国经济的强劲表现，并推动全球通胀居高不下。然而，若贸易和移民政策出现更极端的转向，潜在风险不容忽视。
Bruce Kasman ：“我们的基准预测中，预计美国政策的实际执行力度会较竞选时的激进言论有所收敛。但关键风险在于，如果政策转向更加极端，情况将大不相同”。“比如，如果美国大幅限制贸易，或者大规模驱逐移民，这将引发更为严重的全球供应冲击，而报复性措施和市场信心下滑将进一步放大这种冲击，给明年的全球经济扩张带来巨大威胁。”
图：全球经济展望情景
Rates
At a global level, the base case macro view assumes growth resilience and sticky inflation, which limits the magnitude of further policy rate easing in 2025. As a result, DM policy rates will likely remain higher for longer, albeit with continued divergence between U.S. and euro area rates.
However, the new Trump administration could result in tail risks, including a downside scenario where overly aggressive trade and migration policies result in an adverse supply-side shock and negative hit to global sentiment. All in all, J.P. Morgan Research expects DM yields to grind lower over the course of 2025.
In the U.S., there could be more room for the front end of the curve to outperform as the Fed eases through the third quarter of 2025. “Fed expectations are currently pricing in a shallow easing cycle but policy uncertainty is likely to continue in the first half of 2025,” said Jay Barry, head of Global Rates Strategy at J.P. Morgan. “As such, we forecast 10-year yields to fall to a low of 4.10% in the third quarter and to rebound to 4.25% by year end.”
The outlook appears dimmer in Europe, where the economy could grow at a sluggish sub-potential pace due to heightened trade uncertainty. “The euro area is likely to be the weakest link in the global outlook, and we have a bias for long duration in intermediate EUR versus USD yields,” said Francis Diamond, head of European Rate Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
Over in Japan, rates are expected to continue rising in 2025, driven by the Bank of Japan’s more hawkish stance compared to current market pricing and its decreasing ownership of the coupon JGB market. “We expect modest bear flattening in the cash space, but we have a stronger conviction in the flattening of the front end of the curve,” added Takafumi Yamawaki, head of Japan Fixed Income Research at J.P. Morgan.
利率展望
从全球层面来看，摩根大通的基准宏观预期是：经济增长展现韧性，通胀依然顽固，这将限制2025年政策利率进一步下调的幅度。因此，发达市场（DM）的政策利率可能会维持在较高水平更长时间，但美国和欧元区利率走势的分化将持续存在。
如果新一届特朗普政府推行过于激进的贸易和移民政策，可能会带来供应端冲击，并对全球市场情绪造成负面打击，成为尾部风险因素。整体来看，摩根大通研究团队预计，发达市场收益率将在2025年逐步下行。
美国方面，短期债券收益率可能有更大的表现空间，因为美联储预计将在2025年第三季度开始降息。摩根大通全球利率策略主管杰伊·巴里表示：“市场目前预期美联储将进入一个较浅的降息周期，但政策不确定性可能会在2025年上半年持续。”因此，摩根大通预计10年期国债收益率将在第三季度降至4.10%，并在年底反弹至4.25%。
欧洲的前景更为黯淡，由于贸易不确定性加剧，欧洲经济可能将维持在低于潜力的增长水平。弗朗西斯·戴蒙德指出：“欧元区可能是全球经济前景中最弱的一环，我们倾向于在中期欧元收益率与美元收益率之间选择做多久期。”
日本方面，预计2025年利率将继续上升，主要受到日本央行鹰派立场的推动，与当前市场定价存在差异。此外，日本央行在削减持有的日本政府债券（JGB）方面也会有所动作。摩根大通日本固定收益研究主管山脇贵文表示：“我们预计现货市场会出现温和的熊市平坦化，但我们更看好短期利率曲线的平坦化趋势。”
FX
In 2025, the policy fallout from the U.S. election will likely inform the direction of FX markets. But beyond this, classical FX drivers such as cyclical/policy differentiation and valuations are expected to play a key role as well.
J.P. Morgan Research is bullish on the U.S. dollar, which could strengthen to new highs in the coming months. “November’s election outcome has given way to lower global growth expectations, wider growth gaps between the U.S. and the rest of the world, and higher terminal Fed funds rate forecasts for 2025 — the perfect trifecta of bullish USD cyclical impulses,” said Meera Chandan, co-head of Global FX Strategy at J.P. Morgan. “These are early first-order reactions that may give way to deeper rethinks once the full set of Trump administration policies are known next year, but for now, they constitute a solid economic rationale for carrying a long USD stance into the first quarter of 2025.”
In contrast, the outlook for the euro is bearish, especially as the eurozone is particularly susceptible to trade conflicts. “Our EUR/USD forecast looks for a test of parity by the first quarter of 2025 as tariff risks get more fully priced in,” Chandan said. However, EUR/USD could potentially recover to 1.08 later in the year due to mitigating factors including tariff reductions, a resolution of the Russia–Ukraine conflict and a slowdown in U.S. growth.
While sterling has been the best performing currency against the dollar in 2024, a repeat of this major outperformance seems unlikely in the coming year. Instead, GBP/USD is expected to fall to 1.21 in the first quarter of 2025, before recovering to 1.32 by December. “Overall, risks to sterling from weaker U.K. growth and Bank of England (BoE) easing will likely be offset by relative insulation from tariff risks and still-high yield in 2025. This means sterling will likely muddle through, delivering lower returns than recent years,” Chandan added.
In Asia, J.P. Morgan sees some cross-currents for USD/JPY in 2025, with the Japanese yen likely finding a bottom following four consecutive years of underperformance. “Although divergence in the U.S. and Japan monetary policy suggests a modest decline in USD/JPY, it would not be powerful enough to push the pair significantly lower. On the other hand, structural factors including Japan’s weak productivity growth and negative real policy rate continue to limit the yen’s upside,” Chandan said. “Furthermore, excessive yen weakness is not acceptable for both U.S. and Japan policymakers. If yen depreciation accelerates, it would be countered by more hawkish yen-buying interventions.” Taking these factors into account, J.P. Morgan Research expects USD/JPY to reach 152 in the first quarter of 2025, and 148 in the fourth quarter.
外汇市场展望
2025年，美国大选带来的政策影响将是外汇市场的主要驱动力之一。但除了政治因素外，经济周期与政策分化以及估值水平等经典外汇市场因素，也将在未来一年起到关键作用。
摩根大通研究团队对美元持看涨态度，预计美元将在未来几个月内进一步走强，创下新高。摩根大通全球外汇策略联席主管 Meera Chandan 表示：“11月大选的结果导致了全球增长预期下调，美国与其他国家的增长差距扩大，同时2025年美联储利率的预期终点更高。这三大因素形成了支持美元周期性走强的‘完美组合’。”Meera Chandan指出，这些反应属于初期表现，随着2025年特朗普政府政策的全面公布，市场可能会重新评估，但目前来看，美元的强势逻辑足以支撑其在2025年第一季度继续走强。
与美元的强势形成对比，欧元的前景偏向悲观，尤其是欧元区对贸易冲突的敏感性较高。“我们预计欧元兑美元（EUR/USD）将在2025年第一季度测试平价水平，因为关税风险将被市场更充分地反映。”不过，随着贸易关税的减少、俄乌冲突的解决，以及美国经济增长放缓等因素的缓解，EUR/USD可能在年底回升至1.08。
英镑方面，2024年英镑是表现最好的抗美元货币，但这种强劲表现在2025年重现的可能性不大。摩根大通预计英镑兑美元（GBP/USD）将在2025年第一季度下跌至1.21，但到12月有望回升至1.32。Meera Chandan指出：“虽然英国经济增长放缓和英格兰银行（BoE）降息存在下行风险，但英镑相对不受关税冲击的影响，同时较高的收益率水平仍将在2025年起到支撑作用。因此，英镑的表现可能会相对平淡，回报率低于过去几年。”
在亚洲市场，摩根大通认为2025年美元兑日元（USD/JPY）走势将受到多重因素的影响。日元在连续四年表现不佳后，预计将触底反弹。Meera Chandan：“虽然美国和日本的货币政策分化暗示USD/JPY将小幅下跌，但这一趋势不足以显著推低汇率水平。另一方面，日本生产率增长疲弱和实际利率为负等结构性因素，也将继续限制日元升值的空间。”日元过度贬值对美国和日本的政策制定者来说都是不可接受的。如果日元贬值速度加快，日本政府可能通过更具鹰派色彩的干预措施来买入日元，抑制其进一步走弱。综合这些因素，摩根大通预计美元兑日元（USD/JPY）将在2025年第一季度达到152，并在第四季度回落至148。
Forecasts for major currency pairs
图：主要货币预测
Credit
Looking to 2025, the global credit ecosystem remains fairly robust. “Positioning does not feel overly stretched, and leverage and complexity appear largely absent. Nor are there any obvious asset-liability mismatches, which tend to portend financial accidents,” said Stephen Dulake, co-head of Fundamental Research at J.P. Morgan. “Moreover, all-in corporate bond yields, especially those in North America, remain in the right zip code to underpin strong domestic institutional and international demand.”
For U.S. credit, yields are expected to stay high throughout 2025, and this could continue to attract strong demand and keep spreads at very tight levels. “The relative strength of U.S. growth versus other markets, as well as the expectation that U.S. policy will favor U.S. assets at the expense of other regions, are supportive of strong overseas demand for U.S. credit. In addition, corporate credit quality is good and is likely to stay that way in 2025,” said Eric Beinstein, head of U.S. Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
In Europe, the backdrop looks more challenging, with the U.S. election creating uncertainty for the credit market. In European investment grade, J.P. Morgan Research forecasts 15 bp of widening next year to 130 bp, implying total returns of 4.5%. “Despite our macro concerns, however, we think any spread widening will be limited, with the technicals likely to remain strong on continued yield buying, a rotation out of cash into fixed income as policy rates decline, and limited net supply as trade uncertainty weighs on business investment and acquisition activity,” said Daniel Lamy, head of European Credit Strategy at J.P. Morgan.
Looking at securitized products, house prices are expected to rise 3% next year. “Although underbuilding has been evident over the last decade, the long-term housing shortage is less clear. Immigration has boosted population growth, driving demand, while vacancy rates point to potential supply constraints,” said John Sim, head of Securitized Products Research at J.P. Morgan.
While agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have lagged other spread products in 2024, valuations look relatively attractive heading into 2025, with more organic net supply ($230 billion) and better bank buying.
信贷市场展望
展望2025年，全球信贷市场的整体环境依旧稳健。摩根大通基础研究联合主管斯蒂芬·杜莱克指出：“目前市场的仓位并未过度扩张，杠杆和复杂性基本上不存在，也没有明显的资产负债错配问题，这类现象通常会引发金融事故。此外，尤其是在北美地区，企业债券的整体收益率仍处于合理水平，这将持续支撑国内机构投资者和国际投资者的强劲需求。”
美国信贷市场方面，预计2025年收益率将维持在较高水平，这将持续吸引大量需求，并使信用利差保持在非常紧缩的状态。摩根大通基本面研究联席主管 Stephen Dulake 表示：“美国经济增长的相对强势，以及预计美国政策将倾向于有利于美国资产、而非其他地区的资产，都将支持海外投资者对美国信贷的强劲需求。此外，企业的信用质量良好，预计2025年将保持这一水平。”
欧洲信贷市场的形势则相对更加严峻，主要受到美国大选带来的不确定性影响。摩根大通预计，欧洲投资级债券的信用利差将在明年扩大15个基点，达到130个基点，总回报率约为4.5%。Stephen Dulake ：“虽然我们对宏观经济持谨慎态度，但预计信用利差的扩大将是有限的。主要原因包括技术面支撑依旧强劲——持续的收益率买盘、政策利率下降后资金从现金向固定收益资产的轮动，以及由于贸易不确定性导致的投资与并购活动放缓，从而使得净供应有限。”
在证券化产品领域，预计2025年房价将上涨3%。“虽然过去十年房屋建设不足较为明显，但长期的住房供应短缺尚不明确。与此同时，移民增长带动了人口增长，推动了住房需求，而空置率数据则显示供应存在潜在瓶颈。”
此外，2024年机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的表现落后于其他信用利差产品，但进入2025年后，MBS的估值将显得相对具有吸引力，尤其是在更强劲的净供应（约2300亿美元）和银行购买力度增强的背景下。
Emerging markets
“EM growth faces significant uncertainty in 2025, caught between two giants, China and the U.S., with policy changes in the latter potentially delivering a large negative supply shock that will have spillovers across EM,” said Luis Oganes, head of Global Macro Research at J.P. Morgan.
While EM inflation is expected to slow as services inflation moderates, core goods prices could see a temporary boost from tariffs and FX depreciation. In addition, EM central banks will likely need to contend with changes in U.S. financial conditions and weigh financial stability concerns against the adverse impact on growth from deteriorating sentiment and slowing global trade flows. Overall, weaker domestic growth and ample rate buffers could still leave room for cautious monetary easing in 2025.
“Considering these cross-currents, our baseline forecast looks for EM growth to slow from 4.1% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025. Excluding China, EM growth would ease only moderately from 3.4% to 3.0%,” Oganes added.
Regional outlooks
EM Asia: The region will likely be in the crosshairs of any U.S.–China trade war in 2025, and J.P. Morgan Research expects GDP growth in the region to slow to 4% should such a scenario unfold.
EM EMEA: Growth is still expected in the region, but at a slower pace and with downside risks. “Despite the less upbeat growth, we have delayed rate cuts in various countries given high and persistent core inflation dynamics, along with rising global risks,” Oganes said.
LATAM: 2025 GDP growth is expected be higher on average versus 2024, mostly on the back of a strong rebound in Argentina. While above-target inflation will likely result in elevated interest rates and fiscal consolidation, medium-term fiscal challenges remain.
新兴市场展望
“2025年，新兴市场（EM）的增长前景面临重大不确定性，主要受到中美两大经济体的影响，特别是美国政策变化可能引发的供应端冲击，这将波及新兴市场，”摩根大通全球宏观研究主管路易斯·奥加内斯表示。
随着服务通胀放缓，新兴市场的整体通胀预计将有所下降，但受关税和外汇贬值影响，核心商品价格可能会短暂走高。新兴市场的央行还需应对美国金融状况的变化，在金融稳定性和增长放缓之间做出权衡，特别是在市场情绪恶化和全球贸易放缓的情况下。整体来看，国内增长疲弱，但充足的利率缓冲空间仍可能为2025年谨慎的货币宽松提供一定余地。
“综合这些复杂因素，我们的基准预测是新兴市场增长将从2024年的4.1%放缓至2025年的3.4%。剔除中国后，新兴市场的增长将从3.4%小幅降至3.0%”。
区域展望
亚太新兴市场（EM Asia）：
2025年，亚太地区将成为中美贸易战的主要受害者之一。摩根大通预计，若此情景发生，该地区的GDP增长将放缓至4%。
欧洲、中东及非洲（EM EMEA）：
该地区仍将保持增长，但速度会有所放缓，且面临下行风险。“虽然经济增长预期不够乐观，但考虑到核心通胀较高且持续，加上全球风险上升，我们推迟了多个国家的降息计划。”
拉丁美洲（LATAM）：
预计2025年GDP增长将较2024年有所改善，主要得益于阿根廷经济的强劲复苏。然而，高于目标的通胀可能导致利率维持在较高水平，同时伴随财政整顿。不过，该地区在中长期仍面临财政挑战。
Commodities
Trump’s return to the White House should see a focused agenda with a promise to “rapidly defeat inflation, quickly bring down prices and reignite explosive economic growth.” Much of his strategy relies on reducing energy prices, and he has pledged to lower oil costs. Under these plans, deregulation and increased U.S. production present downside risks to oil prices, while upside risks are posed by exerting pressure on Iran, Venezuela and possibly Russia to limit oil exports and revenues. Weak supply-demand fundamentals may, however, help Trump keep his promise to bring oil prices down.
J.P. Morgan Research’s view has remained largely unchanged over the past year, with expectations of a shift from a balanced market in 2024 to a large surplus in 2025. “We look for a large 1.3 million barrels per day (mbd) surplus and an average of $73 per barrel (bbl) for Brent, although we expect prices to close the year firmly below $70, with WTI at $64/bbl,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan. Crucially, these forecasts assume that OPEC+ stays put at current production levels.
Turning to natural gas, both the European and U.S. markets are likely to remain in a fairly balanced state, weather-adjusted, until supply growth becomes apparent. “For the European natural gas market, with growing baseload needs around the globe, supply growth may not happen until mid-2026,” said Shikha Chaturvedi, head of Global Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids Strategy at J.P. Morgan. “However, for the U.S. natural gas market, it could be as early as late-2025, as midstream infrastructure is expected to allow for more movement of molecules from production zones to demand regions in the Gulf of Mexico.”
The rally looks set to rumble on for precious metals, with constrained supply setting the stage for stronger base metal prices later in 2025. “We maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold as the most likely macro scenarios in 2025 still skew bullish for the metal,” said Gregory Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan. “We are forecasting prices to rise towards $3,000/oz next year.”
What about silver? “Silver’s time to shine comes after base metals likely finding a bottom in early 2025,” Shearer added. “We see a catchup trade propelling silver prices toward $38/oz by year-end.”
For agriculture markets, a low inventory base at the global level continues to limit downside price risks into 2025. More volatility could lie ahead, though. “U.S. trade, foreign policy and wider geopolitical developments ahead add complexity through the 2025/26 balances, with more immediate impacts for price,” said Tracey Allen, an agricultural commodities strategist at J.P. Morgan. “We anticipate a more volatile price environment for agricultural commodities through 2025–2026, particularly for U.S. trade-exposed soybean, corn, cotton and wheat markets.”
大宗商品展望
随着特朗普回归白宫，其政策重点将围绕“迅速打败通胀、快速降低物价并重燃经济增长”展开。特朗普的策略很大程度上依赖于降低能源价格，他承诺将压低石油价格。在这些计划下，放松管制和增加美国能源产量可能对油价构成下行风险；但与此同时，对伊朗、委内瑞拉甚至俄罗斯施压以限制其石油出口和收入，则可能推动油价上行。由于供应和需求的基本面较弱，这些条件可能帮助特朗普实现其降低油价的承诺。
摩根大通的研究观点在过去一年中保持基本不变，预计石油市场将从2024年的供需平衡转向2025年的大幅过剩。摩根大通全球大宗商品策略主管 Natasha Kaneva 表示：“我们预计2025年石油市场每天将有130万桶的过剩供应，布伦特原油的平均价格将为73美元/桶，预计年底价格将跌破70美元，WTI原油价格预计为64美元/桶。”这些预测的前提是OPEC+保持目前的生产水平。
天然气方面，欧洲和美国市场在天气调整后可能会保持相对平衡的状态，直到供应增长显现。摩根大通全球天然气和天然气液战略主管 Shikha Chaturvedi 表示：“对于欧洲天然气市场，由于全球对基荷能源需求的增长，供应增长可能要到2026年年中才会出现。而对于美国天然气市场，随着中游基础设施的建设，预计到2025年底就能实现更多从产区向墨西哥湾需求区的分子输送。”
贵金属预计将继续上涨，而供应受限可能为基本金属价格在2025年后期走强奠定基础。摩根大通基本金属和贵金属策略主管 Gregory Shearer 表示：“我们对黄金保持多年的看涨预期，因为2025年最可能的宏观经济场景仍倾向于利好黄金。我们预测黄金价格将在明年上涨至3,000美元/盎司。”
白银呢？“白银的表现将在2025年初基本金属触底后开始发力。”Shearer补充说，“我们预计补涨行情将推动白银价格在年底达到38美元/盎司。”
农业商品市场方面，全球范围内的低库存继续限制价格下行风险，但波动性可能会加剧。摩根大通农产品策略师 Tracey Allen 表示：“2025/26年度，美国贸易、外交政策以及更广泛的地缘政治发展，将使供需平衡更加复杂，并对价格产生更直接的影响。我们预计农业大宗商品价格在2025-2026年将处于更波动的环境，尤其是对美国出口依赖较高的大豆、玉米、棉花和小麦市场。”
Global commodity price forecasts
图：全球大宗商品价格预测
