制度影响繁荣的因果评估与制度变迁的动态博弈分析——2024年度诺贝尔经济学奖得主主要经济理论贡献述评

Summary: Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson are awarded the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics “for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity”. They pushed the study of institutional determinism to a new stage through innovative empirical design and theoretical modeling, and improved the comprehensive understanding of the role of institutions together with the micro research of new institutional economics. On the one hand, they creatively conducted quasi-experimental design to identify the causal link of how institutions affect prosperity from macro and historical perspectives using natural experiments in colonial history. Their empirical studies promoted the development of the credibility revolution of empirical economics in the field of quantitative history. On the other hand, by constructing a dynamic game model for political economic analysis of institutional change, they highlighted the crucial role of commitment in resolving social conflicts in the process of institutional change. They extend North’s theory of the State, providing an explanation for the rise and fall of states different from Olson’s analysis based on interest groups, and offering an interpretation of rich phenomena such as institutional evolution, recurrence, and even stagnation. However, their contributions are not flawless. Firstly, there is still controversy over whether the selection of instrumental variables in empirical research on the causality of institutions on prosperity satisfies the assumption of exogeneity. European colonizers brought not only institutions but also human capital to their colonies, making it difficult to distinguish the impact of institutions and human capital on economic growth. Secondly, in the study of institutional change, the potential assumption that there is a hierarchical structure between institutions also needs to be discussed. Society is a complex system, and there is a coupling structure between various institutions, making it difficult to achieve optimal results if institutional change is leading or lagging behind. Finally, their empirical research identified the causal link of institutions on economic growth given factors such as geography and culture constant. This does not mean that other factors such as geography or culture have no effect on economic growth, and policymakers should avoid using a single factor to explain economic development. Their research, especially the insights on inclusive systems, has important reference value for China’s economic system reform. China should deepen institutional reform and build a unified national market, promote effective allocation of resources nationwide through more inclusive systems, and improve resource allocation efficiency to achieve economic growth .

Key words:Daron Acemoglu; Simon Johnson; James A. Robinson; quasi-experimental design; new institutional economics; political economics; development economics; inclusive institutions

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