未来的土豆危机：气候变化如何让马铃薯变「小」

In a research facility in the northwest of Beijing, molecular biologist Li Jieping and his team harvest a cluster of seven unusually small potatoes, one as tiny as a quail's egg, from a potted plant.

Grown under conditions that simulate predictions of higher temperatures at the end of the century, the potatoes provide an ominous sign of future food security.

At just 136 grams, the tubers weigh less than half that of a typical potato in China,where the most popular varieties are often twice the size of a baseball.

China is the world's biggest producer of potatoes, which are crucial to global food security because of their high yield relative to other staple crops.

But they are particularly vulnerable to heat, and climate change, driven by fossil fuel emissions, is pushing temperatures to dangerous new heights while also worsening drought and flooding.

With an urgent need to protect food supplies, Li, a researcher at the International Potato Center(CIP) in Beijing, is leading a three-year study into the effects of higher temperatures on the vegetable. His team is focusing on China's two most common varieties.

"I worry about what will happen in the future," Li said."Farmers will harvest fewer potato tubers, it will influence food security."

Li's team grew their crop over three months in a walk-in chamber set at 3 degrees Celsius above the current average temperature in northern Hebei and Inner Mongolia, the higher altitude areas where potatoes are usually grown in China.

Their research, published in the journal Climate Smart Agriculture this month, found the higher temperatures accelerated tuber growth by 10 days but cut potato yields by more than half.

Under current climate policy initiatives,the world is facing as much as 3.1 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100, according to a United Nations report released in October.

In Inner Mongolia, dozens of workers clutching white sacks rush to gather potatoes dug up from the soil before the next downpour.

"The biggest challenge for potatoes this year is the heavy rain," said manager Wang Shiyi. "It has caused various diseases...and greatly slowed down the harvest progress.”

Meanwhile, seed potato producer Yakeshi Senfeng Potato Industry Company has invested in aeroponic systems where plants are grown in the air under controlled conditions.

Farmers are increasingly demanding potato varieties that are higher-yielding and less susceptible to disease, particularly late blight, which caused the Irish Potato Famine of the mid-19th century and thrives in warm and humid conditions.

"Some new and more aggressive (late blight) strains have begun to appear, and they are more resistant to traditional prevention and control methods," said general manager Li Xuemin,explaining the Inner Mongolia-based company’s strategy.

The research by CIP, which is headquartered in Lima, is part of a collaborative effort with the Chinese government to help farmers adapt to the warmer, wetter conditions.

In the greenhouse outside Li's lab, workers swab pollen on white potato flowers to develop heat-tolerant varieties.

Li says Chinese farmers will need to make changes within the next decade, planting during spring instead of the start of summer or moving to even higher altitudes to escape the heat.

"Farmers have to start preparing for climate change," Li said. "If we don't find a solution, they will make less money from lower yields, and the price of potatoes may rise.”

在北京西北部的一个研究设施中，分子生物学家李洁平和他的团队从一株盆栽植物中收获了一簇七个异常小的土豆，其中一个小得像鹌鹑蛋。

这些在模拟本世纪末高温条件下生长的土豆为未来的粮食安全提供了一个不祥的信号。

这些块茎仅重 136 克，重量不到中国典型土豆的一半，而中国最受欢迎的品种通常是棒球大小的两倍。

中国是世界上最大的土豆生产国，土豆因其相对于其他主食作物的高产量而对全球粮食安全至关重要。

但它们特别容易受到高温的影响，而由化石燃料排放驱动的气候变化正在将温度推向危险的新高度，同时也加剧了干旱和洪水。

由于迫切需要保护粮食供应，李作为国际马铃薯中心(CIP)在北京的研究员，正在领导一项为期三年的研究，研究高温对这种蔬菜的影响。他的团队专注于中国最常见的两种品种。

“我担心未来会发生什么，”李说。“农民将收获更少的土豆块茎，这将影响粮食安全。”

李的团队在一个步入式室内种植室中种植了三个月，温度设定为比中国通常种植土豆的北部河北和内蒙古的当前平均温度高 3 摄氏度。

他们的研究本月发表在《气候智能农业》期刊上，发现较高的温度加速了块茎的生长 10 天，但土豆产量减少了一半以上。

根据联合国 10 月发布的一份报告，在当前的气候政策倡议下，到 2100 年全球面临比工业化前水平高出多达 3.1 摄氏度的变暖。

在内蒙古，几十名工人手握白色麻袋，赶在下一场暴雨前收集从土壤中挖出的土豆。

“今年土豆面临的最大挑战是大雨，”经理王世义说。'它引发了多种病害.....并严重拖慢了收获进度。”

与此同时，种薯生产商牙克石森丰马铃薯产业公司投资了气雾栽培系统，在受控条件下将植物在空气中生长。

农民越来越多地要求产量更高日不易患病的十豆品种，特别是晚疫病，这种病在 19 世纪中期导致了爱尔兰马铃薯饥荒，并在温暖潮湿的条件下滋生。

“一些新的、更具侵略性的(晚疫病)菌株已经开始出现，它们对传统的预防和控制方法更具抵抗力，”总经理李学民(音译)解释了这家位于内蒙古的公司的策略。

总部位于利马的 CIP 的研究是与中国政府合作的一部分，旨在帮助农民适应更温暖、更潮湿的环境。

在李的实验室外的温室中，工人们在自色土豆花上涂抹花粉，以培育耐热品种。

李说，中国农民需要在未来十年内做出改变，在春季而不是夏初种植，或者迁移到更高的海拔以避开高温。

“农民必须开始为气候变化做准备，”李说。“如果我们找不到解决方案，他们将因产量下降而赚取更少的钱，土豆的价格可能会上涨。”

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