美国华盛顿邮报网站于2024年11月6日发表题为《谁将入主白宫？特朗普、哈里斯胜选之路最新解析》的文章。以下观点不代表任何译者立场，现将全文翻译如下：Who is winning the election? Latest look at Trump, Harris paths to victory.![]()
Our regularly updated election-night look at the best remaining paths to 270 for each candidate.By Aaron Blake and Shelly Tan
Updated November 6, 2024 at 1:41 a.m. EST | Published November 5, 2024 at 10:35 p.m. EST
2024年11月6日凌晨1:41更新｜2024年11月5日晚10:35首发
The 2024 presidential election polled closer than any election in decades. All seven swing states were separated by two points or fewer in The Washington Post’s polling average, and various forecasts put Vice President Kamala Harris’s and former president Donald Trump’s odds very close to 50-50.2024年总统大选的民调结果显示，这是数十年来最胶着的一次选战。《华盛顿邮报》的民调平均值显示，七个摇摆州的支持率差距均在两个百分点以内。各项预测都显示，副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯和前总统唐纳德·特朗普的胜算接近五五开。But it’s looking increasingly as if it’s Trump’s race to lose.As vote-counting progresses, we’ll be providing a regularly updated look at the most likely paths to victory for each candidate.在计票过程中，我们将持续更新分析两位候选人最有可能的胜选路径。As each state is called (or looks close to a call), we’ll look at how it affects the candidates’ paths to victory and their most likely paths that remain. Make sure to check back often for updates, because we’ll aim to keep this as fresh and up-to-the-minute as possible.随着各州结果的陆续揭晓（或接近尘埃落定），我们将分析这些结果如何影响候选人的胜选机会，以及他们各自剩余的最可能胜选路径。请持续关注我们的实时更新。![]()
Trump has thus far won Georgia and North Carolina, and he is a slight favorite according to our Post Pulse forecast in three other swing states: Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (It’s too close in our forecast in Michigan and we don’t yet have enough votes to activate a forecast in Nevada.)特朗普已在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州获胜。根据《华盛顿邮报》脉动预测，他在亚利桑那州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州也略占优势。（在密歇根州的预测结果悬而未决，内华达州则因票数不足，暂无法做出预测。）All of these states could go a long way toward Trump’s most plausible paths to victory, which appear much more plentiful than Harris’s at this point. It’s looking more and more like Harris will need to come from behind in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.这些州都可能成为特朗普通往胜利的关键。目前看来，他的胜选路径明显多于哈里斯。哈里斯似乎必须在密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州这些”蓝墙"州实现逆袭。As a reminder, the magic number is 270 electoral votes — a majority of the 538 available. Also, the maps below assume that the 43 other states go as they have in both 2016 and 2020.需要提醒的是，获胜需要至少270张选举人票——在总数538张选举人票中占据多数。以下地图分析假设其余43个州的投票结果将与2016年和2020年保持一致。Trump’s best path: Pennsylvania plus one (electoral vote)![]()
Trump’s simplest path — and one his campaign has focused on for a while — runs through the three eastern swing states: Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. With his wins in Georgia and North Carolina, winning Pennsylvania appears to be his quickest path right now.特朗普最直接的胜选路径——也是其竞选团队长期关注的路线——经由东部三个摇摆州：佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州和宾夕法尼亚州。随着他在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的胜利，目前他只需拿下略占优势的宾夕法尼亚州，再加上一张选举人票即可。All he needs now is to win Pennsylvania, where he’s a slight favorite, and one more electoral vote. That could come either in another swing state or in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where he currently leads by double digits with about half the vote in.这一额外的选举人票可能来自另一个摇摆州，或来自缅因州第二国会选区。在该选区，目前已开出约半数选票，特朗普以两位数的优势领先。(Maine is one of two states that awards electoral votes by congressional district, and Trump has won Maine’s 2nd twice before.)（缅因州是两个按国会选区分配选举人票的州之一，特朗普此前已两次在缅因州第二选区获胜。）Trump’s two-state solutionsEven if Trump ultimately loses Pennsylvania, he could also win with a number of two-state combinations.即便最终失去宾夕法尼亚州，特朗普仍有多种双州组合可以取胜。He could simply win the other two states in which he is currently slightly favored, Arizona and Wisconsin.![]()
He could do it by carrying Michigan and Wisconsin.![]()
And he could also do it by carrying Michigan and Nevada.![]()
The only two-state combination that wouldn’t be sufficient, in fact, would be Nevada and Wisconsin.事实上，只有内华达州和威斯康星州的组合无法确保胜选。Of course, it’s possible he will win more than just two of these states. But these would be the combinations that get him to 270.当然，他也可能赢得更多州份。但上述组合已足以达到270张选举人票的门槛。Harris’s best (and maybe only) path: a “blue wall” comeback![]()
Harris’s losses in Georgia and North Carolina make it look increasingly like her path to victory — to the extent it remains — runs through the north, where she is a slight underdog in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but there are more votes outstanding.随着哈里斯在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的失利，她的胜选希望——如果还存在的话——似乎只能寄托于北方各州。尽管她在宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州略显劣势，但这些州仍有大量选票待计。This “blue wall’’ path using the northern swing states has been the simplest and most plausible one for Democrats for a long time, dating back to even when President Joe Biden was still in the race.这条经由北方摇摆州的“蓝墙”路径，长期以来一直是民主党最简单可行的选项，这一策略可以追溯到乔·拜登仍在竞选时期。It requires only three states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and those three states happen to be ones Harris has led in The Post’s polling average, albeit narrowly.这条路径只需赢得三个州——密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州。在《邮报》的民调平均值中，哈里斯在这些州虽然优势微弱，但一直保持领先。It also requires Harris to win one additional electoral vote to get to 270, most likely via Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. (Nebraska is one of two states, along with Maine, to award some electoral votes by congressional district.) Harris has led in polls of that district by around 10 points.此外，她还需要再获得一张选举人票才能达到270票的门槛，这张票最可能来自内布拉斯加州第二国会选区。（内布拉斯加州与缅因州一样，也按国会选区分配部分选举人票。）民调显示，哈里斯在该选区领先约10个百分点。
