香港南华早报网站于2024年8月1日发表题为《林毅夫谈三中全会、生产过剩与避免日本覆辙》的文章。以下观点不代表任何译者立场，现将全文翻译如下：
Economy / China Economy
经济 / 中国经济
Open Questions | Justin Lin Yifu on China’s third plenum, overcapacity and avoiding Japan’s fate
开放问题｜林毅夫谈三中全会、生产过剩与避免日本覆辙
· The professor and former World Bank economist says China’s industrial policy essential to fuel innovation, avoid Japan-like depression
· 世界银行前经济学家林毅夫教授表示，中国产业政策支持创新，可避免日本式衰退
Justin Lin Yifu is a professor of economics at Peking University and former chief economist at the World Bank. His theory of “new structural economics” – which advises governments of developing countries to take an active role in building and optimising their industrial base – is widely believed to have influenced Beijing’s economic policies over the past decade, and he has predicted China will “surpass the US, as measured by market exchange rate, around 2030” and surmount the middle-income trap “within two or three years”. He was a counsellor for China’s State Council from 2013 to 2023.
林毅夫是北京大学经济学教授，曾任世界银行首席经济学家。他提出的"新结构经济学"理论——建议发展中国家政府在构建和优化产业基础方面发挥积极作用——被广泛认为影响了过去十年北京的经济政策。他曾预测中国将"在2030年前后按市场汇率计算超过美国"，并"在两三年内"跨越中等收入陷阱。2013年至2023年，林毅夫担任中国国务院参事。
In this latest interview in the Open Questions series, Lin elaborates on his projections, analyses the documents issued in the wake of the highly anticipated third plenum and expounds upon the relationship between governments and markets. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here.
在这次最新的”开放问题"系列访谈中，林毅夫详细阐述了他的预测，分析了备受瞩目的三中全会后发布的文件，并阐明了政府与市场的关系。
One thing receiving attention in China is the future of market-oriented reform. Even though the market’s “decisive role” in resource allocation was mentioned in the full text of the decision document from the recently concluded third plenum, the expression was omitted from the initial summary, which triggered some concerns about a downgrade of the role of the market. How do you interpret this?
中国当前备受关注的一个议题是市场化改革的未来。尽管刚刚结束的三中全会决定全文中提到了市场在资源配置中的”决定性作用"，但这一表述在最初的摘要中被省略，引发了一些对市场作用被弱化的担忧。您如何解读这一现象？
Having already been designated as playing a “decisive role” in resource allocation, it is difficult to find words that can emphasise the role of the market even more.
市场在资源配置中的作用已被定义为“决定性”，很难找到更能强调市场角色的措辞了。
It is known that market failure is a common phenomenon in economic development. Therefore, the third plenum proposes to optimise the role of the government and ensure effective regulation to “remedy market failure”.
众所周知，市场失灵在经济发展中是普遍现象。因此，三中全会提出优化政府作用，确保有效监管以’纠正市场失灵’。”
Where does market failure occur? It may be different across industries and stages of development. Thus, if the government wants to play a better role, it must be flexible and take measures according to the situation.
市场失灵可能因行业和发展阶段而异。因此，若政府想发挥更好的作用，就必须灵活应对，因地制宜。
So this is not a downgrade of the role of the market, but a further explanation and improvement of the role of government, of which the ultimate purpose is to let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation.
这并非弱化市场作用，而是对政府角色的进一步阐释和完善，其终极目标是让市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用。
The third plenum decision also said the government should “lift restrictions”, but when there is market failure, or when a monopoly occurs, it must “strive to better maintain order”.
三中全会决定还提出政府应“放松管制”，但在出现市场失灵或垄断时，必须“努力维护秩序”。
From the perspective of new structural economics, an effective government is the condition for an efficient market, and an efficient market is the goal for an effective government.
从新结构经济学的角度来看，有效的政府是高效市场的前提，而高效的市场则是有效政府的目标。
Why is an effective government the condition for an efficient market? Because if the government does not manage or intervene when there are market failures and monopolies, the market won’t be efficient.
为什么说有效政府是高效市场的前提？因为如果政府在面对市场失灵和垄断时不作为，市场就无法高效运作。
And what is the purpose of the government’s actions? It is to make the market more efficient, so an efficient market is the goal for effective governance. Market failures will not disappear if the government does nothing. But if what the government does exceeds what an efficient market needs, it may hinder the market from playing a decisive role in resource allocation. So this is a balancing act.
而政府行动的目的是什么？就是让市场更加高效，所以高效市场是有效治理的目标。市场失灵不会因政府无所作为而消失。但如果政府的作为超出了高效市场所需，可能会阻碍市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用。这是一个平衡的艺术。
To sum up, a decision on improving the market has been made in response to the new situations facing China’s current stage of economic development. Government policies must be flexible: restrictions should be further lifted accordingly to help enterprises seize development opportunities. But when monopolies and systematic risks occur, the government should be able to maintain order.
综上所述，针对中国当前经济发展阶段面临的新形势，已经做出了完善市场的决定。政府政策必须灵活：应进一步放松管制，帮助企业把握发展机遇。但当出现垄断和系统性风险时，政府应能维护秩序。
You are considered a vocal advocate of industrial policy. Based on the decision document from the third plenum, it appears Beijing will continue allocating resources to favoured sectors. While China has achieved success in specific sectors like electric vehicles (EVs), people are also concerned about misallocation or waste, excessive investment or overcapacity. What do you think?
您被视为产业政策的有力倡导者。从三中全会的决定文件来看，北京似乎将继续向重点领域配置资源。虽然中国在电动汽车等特定领域取得了成功，但人们也担心资源错配或浪费、过度投资或产能过剩。对此，您怎么看？
Economic development requires continuous technological innovation and industrial upgrading, which in turn require research and development. In the process of innovation, there will inevitably be many market failures. As the product of research is a public good that does not yield high profits, enterprises may not be willing to invest if the government does not support them. And if the government does not provide patent protection to new inventions, firms will not be willing to develop new technologies either, as it can be easy for others to copy.
经济发展需要持续的技术创新和产业升级，这又需要研发投入。创新过程中inevitably会出现许多市场失灵。研究成果作为一种公共品，往往难以带来高额利润，如果政府不给予支持，企业可能不愿投资。同样，如果政府不为新发明提供专利保护，企业也不会愿意开发新技术，因为他人很容易复制。
For developing countries, we must continue to climb up the industrial ladder, from industries with low productivity to those with high productivity. Of course, if you want to succeed in the process, there is a very basic principle: it must be based on comparative advantage.
对发展中国家而言，我们必须不断攀升产业阶梯，从低生产率产业向高生产率产业迈进。当然，要在这个过程中取得成功，有一个非常基本的原则：必须基于比较优势。
If you violate the comparative advantage principle, you may fail as a pioneer and bear all the costs. But the failure can warn latecomers against jumping in.
如果违背比较优势原则，作为先行者可能会失败并承担所有成本。但这种失败能警示后来者不要盲目跟进。
When the pioneers succeed, everyone will know that this new industry is in line with our comparative advantage and will then follow, which leads to competition. In this stage, the pioneers can only earn average profits, which are the same level as those of the latecomers.
当先行者成功时，大家就会知道这个新产业符合我们的比较优势，然后纷纷效仿，这就导致了竞争。在这个阶段，先行者只能获得平均利润，与后来者持平。
So regardless of success or failure, the industrial pioneers will create useful information for society. However, the cost and benefit are asymmetric. If the government does not provide compensation for the information externality created by first movers, no one will be willing to become one, and the industry will no longer be upgraded.
所以无论成功还是失败，产业先行者都为社会创造了有用的信息。然而，成本和收益是不对称的。如果政府不为先行者创造的信息外部性提供补偿，就没有人愿意成为先行者，产业也就无法升级了。
The new industry may also need a lot of things that entrepreneurs cannot or are reluctant to provide, such as workers capable of using the new technology, because the firms may find the workers they have invested huge amounts of money in to train can be easily attracted away by latecomers and competitors with slightly higher wages. Other examples include infrastructure, financial and legal institutions.
新产业可能还需要许多企业家无法或不愿提供的要素，比如能够使用新技术的工人。因为企业可能发现，他们投入巨资培训的工人很容易被后来者和竞争对手以略高的工资吸引走。其他例子还包括基础设施、金融和法律制度。
But the resources that the government can leverage are limited, so it should allocate limited resources to those industries with comparative advantages. Such action is industrial policy.
但政府可以利用的资源是有限的，所以应该将有限资源分配给那些具有比较优势的产业。这就是产业政策。
Even though industrial policy has been deemed as wrong for a long time, we have not seen any developed country that can maintain its leading position in the world without industrial policy. If the government does not support basic research, technological innovations will stagnate. This is essentially industrial policy, even though they do not acknowledge it.
尽管产业政策长期以来被认为是错误的，但我们没有看到任何发达国家能在没有产业政策的情况下保持世界领先地位。如果政府不支持基础研究，技术创新将停滞不前。这本质上就是产业政策，尽管他们不承认。
The basic research for various technologies and industries the United States is leading the world in were all supported by the US government in the early stage. Mariana Mazzucato, an Italian economist, called the US government an “entrepreneurial state”.
美国在各种技术和产业领域领先世界的基础研究，早期都得到了美国政府的支持。意大利经济学家玛丽安娜·马祖卡托将美国政府称为“企业家型国家”。
But unfortunately, developing countries have been told they cannot use industrial policies for anything more than supporting basic research. Most have been brainwashed.
但遗憾的是，发展中国家被告知除了支持基础研究外不能使用产业政策。大多数国家都被洗脑了。
Since World War II, there are few developing economies that have been able to catch up with developed countries, as most have fallen into the poverty trap or middle-income trap – except for a few East Asian economies and Israel, which have used active industrial policies to support the development of their comparative advantages.
自二战以来，很少有发展中经济体能够赶上发达国家，大多数都陷入了贫困陷阱或中等收入陷阱——除了少数东亚经济体和以色列，它们使用积极的产业政策来支持其比较优势的发展。
”Intellectuals in developing countries have the responsibility to summarise our own experiences … We should not simply wait for developed countries to tell us what we can or cannot do
发展中国家的知识分子有责任总结自身经验，提出新理论。我们不应简单等待发达国家告诉我们可以做什么或不可以做什么。
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I support industrial policy not because I like it. I follow the principle that to develop, any economy must let the market play its role, give entrepreneurs enough incentive and leverage the government to overcome market failures entrepreneurs cannot solve on their own. Industrial policy is one of the tools, and I’m happy to see that this has become a consensus recently.
我支持产业政策并不是因为我喜欢它。我遵循的原则是，任何经济体要发展，都必须让市场发挥作用，给予企业家足够的激励，并借助政府的力量克服企业家无法自行解决的市场失灵问题。产业政策就是手段之一，我很高兴看到这一点最近已成为共识。
Intellectuals in developing countries have the responsibility to summarise our own experiences and propose new theories. We should not simply wait for developed countries to tell us what we can or cannot do. We should do whatever we think is effective.
发展中国家的知识分子有责任总结自身经验，提出新理论。我们不应简单等待发达国家告诉我们可以做什么或不可以做什么。我们应该做我们认为有效的事。
Of course, most industrial policies eventually fail. Under such circumstances, I think what scholars should not do is say that because there are failures, we oppose industrial policy. Just like we can’t say we don’t need entrepreneurs because most start-ups eventually fail.
当然,大多数产业政策最终都会失败。在这种情况下，学者不应因为有失败就反对产业政策。就像我们不能因为大多数创业最终失败就说不需要企业家。
Instead, we should study what kind of industrial policies succeed, so when we formulate more in the future we can ensure a higher probability of success and a lower probability of failure.
相反，我们应该研究哪种产业政策能成功，这样在未来制定更多政策时，就能确保更高的成功率和更低的失败率。
You said you think China will become the world’s largest economy around 2030, and reject the idea China will follow the path of Japan into economic stagnation. Can you tell us the reasoning behind this?
说您认为中国将在2030年左右成为世界第一大经济体，您也不认为中国会走日本经济停滞的老路。您能谈谈您为什么这么认为吗？
In the 1980s, Japan’s gross domestic product reached 65 to 70 per cent of the US’. And China’s economy is now between 60 and 70 per cent the size of the US’, so it seems to be the same situation.
1980年代，日本GDP达到美国的65%至70%。现在中国经济规模在美国的60%至70%之间，似乎处于相同境况。
The US attitude towards Japan at that time was a bit like its current attitude towards China – you can’t surpass me. If you try to surpass me, I will use various excuses to suppress you. In the 1980s, many of the world’s leading semiconductor companies were in Japan, and Japanese cars were better, cheaper and of higher quality than American cars.
当年美国对日本的态度，与如今对中国的态度如出一辙––––你不能超越我，如果你敢试试，我必以各种高借口压制你。上世纪80年代，世界顶尖半导体企业多在日本，日本汽车更是以高质低价、品质卓越傲视美国车市。
And then the Plaza Accords were signed in 1985. This forced Japan to raise the yen’s exchange rate from 260 yen per US dollar to 120 yen per US dollar, making Japanese exports less competitive.
1985年，《广场协议》应运而生。协议迫使日元对美元汇率从1:260飙升至1:120，大幅削弱了日本出口竞争力。
Regarding Japanese auto exports, the US government used overcapacity as an excuse, and then limited the number of cars that could be exported to the United States each year. At the same time, Japanese car companies were required to invest in the US for production.
美国政府又以产能过剩为由，限制日本汽车每年对美出口数量，同时要求日本车企在美投资设厂。
The US also said that chips made in Japan would threaten its national security, so the Japanese had to transfer technology through joint ventures with American companies, and production could not be concentrated in Japan. So they were dispersed to Samsung, TSMC, or back to the United States.
此外，美国还宣称日本制造的芯片威胁国家安全，迫使日本通过与美国公司合资的方式转让技术，并将生产分散至三星、台积电或迁回美国，不得过度集中于日本本土。
As a result, Japan experienced a 30-year economic depression. In the 1980s, Japan’s per-capita GDP was actually about 130 per cent of the United States’ per-capita GDP. Now it is less than half, and Japan’s total GDP is less than 20 per cent of the US total.
这一系列举措导致日本陷入长达30年的经济低迷。80年代，日本人均GDP曾一度达到美国的130%，如今却不足其半，总GDP更是仅及美国的五分之一。
I don’t think China will follow Japan’s path.
但我认为中国不会重蹈日本覆辙。
China still has many latecomer advantages in upgrading its industries. Its current per-capita GDP is only about a quarter of the US’ figure, if calculated based on purchasing power parity. If calculated with market exchange rates, it is about one-sixth.
中国在产业升级方面仍具备诸多后发优势。以购买力平价计算，中国当前人均GDP仅为美国的四分之一左右；若按市场汇率计算，则约为六分之一。
In addition, because of the fourth industrial revolution, China is competing with developed countries in new industries such as AI and big data from the same starting line.
此外，第四次工业革命的到来，使中国得以在人工智能、大数据等新兴产业领域与发达国家站在同一起跑线上。
At the same time, China has four advantages in these new industries. First, these new technologies require skilled workers, and China has a lot.
与此同时，中国在这些新兴产业中拥有四大优势。首先，这些新技术需要大量技术工人，而中国恰恰人才济济。
Second, China has a large domestic market where new inventions can immediately enter. Where economies of scale are achieved, production costs are low, strengthening global competitiveness.
其次，中国拥有庞大的国内市场，新发明可迅速投入使用，实现规模经济，降低生产成本，从而增强全球竞争力。
Third, if these new inventions require hardware, China has the best manufacturing ecosystem.
再者，若这些新发明需要硬件支持，中国拥有最完善的制造业生态系统。
Fourth, China combines the role of an efficient market with that of an effective government. We have industrial policy in China.
最后，中国兼具高效市场与有为政府的双重优势，拥有产业政策的有力支撑。
Why did Japan lag behind? The term industrial policy was coined by the Japanese. It was after World War II that Japan’s Ministry of Industry and Trade began to use the phrase to refer to efforts made by the government to support the development of new industries.
日本为何落后？“产业政策”一词最初源于日本。二战后，日本通产省开始使用这一术语，指代政府为支持新兴产业发展所作的努力。
But after the Plaza Accords, the US said industrial policy was wrong, as there were many failures, so countries should not use it any more. Japan listened.
然而，《广场协议》后，美国声称产业政策弊端重重，各国不应再采用。日本听信了这一说法。
Think about it. After the 1980s, which world-leading industries were invented by Japan? Japan’s economic development stagnated because it gave up industrial policy to incubate new industries. But China will not do that, so China will continue to develop.
试想，80年代之后，日本还创造出哪些世界领先的产业？日本经济发展停滞不前，正是因为放弃了孵化新兴产业的产业政策。但中国不会重蹈覆辙，因此将持续发展。
At that time everyone thought that Japan’s economy would surpass the US, but it was eventually misled. And China will not be misled.
当年，人们普遍认为日本经济将超越美国，但最终被误导。而中国不会重复这一错误。
Sentiment in the private sector is quite low, even though better protection of private firms was part of the third plenum statements. Those documents brought up legislation to protect the private sector and proposed to allow them to take the lead on national research projects, but at the same time they also pledged to make the state sector “stronger, better and bigger”. What’s your view? What should be done to lift the confidence of private firms?
尽管三中全会文件提出要加强对民营企业的保护，允许主导国家研究项目，但民营部门的情绪似乎仍然低迷。同时，文件也承诺要使国企“做优、做强、做大”。对此，您如何看待？应如何提振民营企业的信心？
“Private enterprises lack confidence,” everyone says. But now the best-performing enterprises in China are private firms, in industries like EVs, solar panels, and lithium batteries. Do they not have confidence? If not, how can they develop so well and have such great competitiveness in domestic and international markets?
有人说“民营企业缺乏信心”，但事实上，中国表现最佳的企业恰恰是民营企业，尤其在电动汽车、太阳能面板和锂电池等行业。如果他们没有信心，又怎能在国内外市场取得如此出色的发展和竞争力？
So when we say that private enterprises have no confidence, it may depend on the sector. They may be in traditional industries. They may rely on exports. These companies are not willing to invest now, but what is the reason behind this?
所以我们谈论民营企业缺乏信心可能需要具体到不同行业。那些不愿投资的企业可能处于传统行业或依赖出口。我们应该深入探究背后的原因。
The international market has not yet recovered. Before 2008, the world economic growth rate was about 4.5 per cent annually, and the growth rate of global trade more than double that figure. After 2008, the world’s economic growth rate declined to a little over 3 per cent, down one-third, and the trade growth rate was less than the economic growth rate.
国际市场尚未完全复苏。2008年之前，全球经济年均增长率约为4.5%，贸易增速更是这一数字的两倍多。2008年后，全球经济增速下降至略高于3%，降幅达三分之一，贸易增速甚至低于经济增速。
China, as the world’s largest exporter, was the most affected by this. More than 95 per cent of China’s export sectors come from private enterprises. When the country’s annual export growth dropped from more than 15 per cent to only about 5 per cent, a lot of excess capacity had to emerge.
作为全球最大出口国，中国受此影响最为显著。中国95%以上的出口部门来自民营企业。当国家年度出口增速从15%以上骤降至仅5%左右时，大量产能过剩自然不可避免。
So it is true that many private firms have no confidence in investment, because they are affected by these external factors.
因此，确实有许多民营企业对投资缺乏信心，但这主要是受到外部因素的影响。
Many attribute the lack of confidence of private enterprises to the expansion of the state sector. It is true that the proportion of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the overall economy has been rising since 2008. But was the increase a result of squeezing out private firms? Or was it because the private sector was not performing, and SOEs had no choice but to shoulder some countercyclical intervention to stabilise economic growth and employment?
许多人将民营企业信心不足归于国企的扩张。诚然，自2008年以来，国有企业在整体经济中的占比确实有所上升。但这是挤压民营企业的结果吗？抑或是因为民营部门表现不佳，国有企业不得不承担一些逆周期干预，以稳定经济增长和就业？
In recent years, all the major public infrastructure projects such as highways, high-speed railways and 5G communications were done by SOEs. These SOEs increased investment, so their proportion in the economy went up.
近年来，所有重大公共基础设施项目，如高速公路、高铁和5G通信，都由国有企业完成。这些国有企业增加投资，导致其在经济中的占比上升。
But has this squeezed out or actually helped private enterprises? In fact, it was more of the latter. Because when SOEs make investments, they create jobs, leading to an increase in residents’ income and thus consumption. And consumer products are all produced by private firms.
但这是挤压了还是实际上帮助了民营企业？事实上，更多是后者。因为国有企业投资会创造就业机会，提高居民收入，进而刺激消费。而消费品几乎都由民营企业生产。
When SOEs invest in big infrastructure projects, the steel, cement and equipment are also mostly produced by private companies, thus these investments create new markets for them.
国有企业投资大型基础设施项目所需的钢铁、水泥和设备也大多由民营企业生产，从而为民营企业创造了新的市场。
China’s SOEs are concentrated in sectors related to defence infrastructure, or natural monopolies such as power and telecommunications. These are essential for maintaining economic security and development, so of course they must be made “bigger and stronger”.
中国的国有企业主要集中在与国防基础设施相关的领域，或电力、通信等自然垄断行业。这些对维护经济安全和发展至关重要，因此必须“做大做强”。
And if they become bigger and stronger, it can reduce the transaction costs of private firms. For example, China’s infrastructure is the best among developing countries, and that is why companies like Meituan, Pinduoduo and JD.com can grow so fast in China.
而且做大做强国有企业可以降低民营企业的交易成本。例如，中国的基础设施在发展中国家中首屈一指，这正是美团、拼多多和京东等企业能在中国迅速发展的原因。
So when we talk about making SOEs bigger and stronger, we need to look at which industries. They are not competing with private firms, but strengthening themselves in sectors to serve private businesses or safeguard national security, which is ultimately conducive to the development of the private sector.
所以我们谈做大做强国有企业，需要具体看是哪些行业。它们并非与民营企业竞争，而是在服务民营企业或维护国家安全的领域加强自身，这最终有利于民营部门的发展。
Building a “unified national market” has been brought up as a key target. While such a concept can be found in government documents from as far back as the 1990s, it has received more attention in recent years. How will such a market help China’s economy? What are some obstacles to this, and how can they be overcome?
建设“统一大市场”已成为一项关键目标。尽管这一概念最早可追溯至上世纪90年代的政府文件，但近年来愈发受到重视。这样的市场将如何助力中国经济？存在哪些障碍？又该如何克服？
China is a large economy, and internal circulation is a key advantage. If the national market is fragmented rather than unified, there will be no such advantage. Reform and opening up is a gradual, dual-track process. At the beginning, the government retained many interventions in the economy.
中国作为一个大型经济体，内循环是关键优势。若国内市场支离破碎而非统一，这一优势将荡然无存。改革开放是一个渐进的双轨制过程。初期，政府在经济中保留了诸多干预手段。
It continued to subsidise several capital-intensive heavy industries, violating comparative advantage to maintain stability. It also liberalised investment for private and foreign firms in some labour-intensive processing industries in line with comparative advantage, actively helping them address market failures such as poor infrastructure by building industrial estates where the business environment could be improved immediately. These labour-intensive sectors were thus able to develop rapidly. This is a major reason why China could maintain stability and achieve rapid development at the same time.
为维护稳定，政府继续对若干资本密集型重工业进行补贴，违背了比较优势原则。同时，政府也按照比较优势原理，在某些劳动密集型加工行业开放了私营和外资企业投资，并通过建设工业园区等方式积极帮助其应对基础设施不足等市场失灵问题，从而迅速改善营商环境。这些劳动密集型产业因此得以快速发展。这是中国能够在保持稳定的同时实现高速发展的主要原因之一。
However, because of the interventions, market operation was not smooth. To subsidise capital-intensive industries, the government intervened in factor prices, including the prices of mineral resources and interest rates.
然而由于政府干预，市场运行并不顺畅。为补贴资本密集型产业，政府干预了包括矿产资源价格和利率在内的要素价格。
But China’s gradual dual-track reform was very efficient. Industries with comparative advantages have developed rapidly, accumulating massive capital, and the old capital-intensive industries have gradually come in line with comparative advantage, no longer needing protections or subsidies. This was why the third plenum in 2013 proposed to let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation, because we no longer needed the government to artificially intervene in prices.
不过，中国的渐进式双轨制改革非常高效。具有比较优势的产业迅速发展，积累了大量资本，而旧有的资本密集型产业也逐渐符合了比较优势，不再需要保护或补贴。这就是为什么2013年三中全会提出让市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用，因为我们不再需要政府人为干预价格。
This is just one of the conditions for a unified national market. The formation of a unified national market also depends on the quality of infrastructure. If your infrastructure is not good, you will only have regional markets, not a national market.
这只是统一大市场形成的条件之一。统一大市场的形成还取决于基础设施的质量。如果基础设施不够完善，就只能形成区域市场，而非国内统一大市场。
Of course, China’s infrastructure has been getting better in recent years. So whether it is market price liberalisation or infrastructure, the conditions for a unified national market have gradually improved, but new situations have also emerged.
近年来，中国的基础设施建设不断完善。无论是市场价格自由化还是基础设施建设，统一大市场的条件都在逐步改善，但同时也出现了新的情况。
For example, data has become a new element. To make sure data can flow according to market demand, we must clarify who owns the data and can use the data. There must be regulations.
比如数据已成为一种新的生产要素。为确保数据能按市场需求流动，我们必须明确数据的所有权和使用权。这就需要相应的法规。
So to establish a unified national market, China must continuously improve the policy environment according to the new situation.
所以要建立统一大市场，中国必须根据新形势不断完善政策环境。
More than 300 reform tasks were brought up in the third plenum resolution document. Could you name some of the most important ones for breaking through the biggest barriers facing China’s economy, and could you elaborate on them?
三中全会决议文件提出了300多项改革任务。您能否列举一些对突破中国经济最大障碍最为重要的改革，并详细阐述一下？
First of all, fiscal and tax reform. Now, everyone is very concerned about local government debts. Why do local governments have those debts? Because our local governments were not allowed to have a deficit on their budget.
首先是财税体制改革。目前，大家都很关注地方政府债务问题。为什么地方政府会有这些债务？因为我们的地方政府预算不允许出现赤字。
After the international financial crisis in 2008, China undertook a lot of infrastructure projects to stabilise employment and economic growth. Within that 4 trillion yuan (US$551 billion) stimulus package, the central government only provided 1.2 trillion yuan, and the remaining 2.8 trillion yuan had to come from local governments.
2008年国际金融危机后，中国实施了大量基础设施项目以稳定就业和经济增长。在4万亿刺激计划中，中央政府仅提供了1.2万亿元，剩余的2.8万亿元需要地方政府筹措。
But as they could not have a deficit, they set up local investment platforms and borrowed money from banks to build these projects. As the money was underwritten with local government credit, it inevitably became hidden debt. Even if they are not shown in the budget, the liability belongs to the local governments.
但由于地方政府不能有赤字，它们便设立了地方融资平台，从银行借款来建设这些项目。这些资金由地方政府信用作担保，不可避免地成为了隐性债务。即使未显示在预算中，责任也归属于地方政府。
One problem here is that these infrastructure projects are long-term projects, but the money they borrowed is short-term debt, so there is a mismatch.
这里的一个问题是，这些基础设施项目是长期项目，但他们借入的资金是短期债务，存在期限错配。
So, how to solve this problem? First, the local government debt problem in China is not as bad as it looks. One big difference between local government debt in China and in other countries is that foreign debt is real debt, because most of the money borrowed is used to boost consumption or relieve unemployment. Most of the debt of Chinese local governments, however, was used for infrastructure investment, which means there are assets underlying the debts, so the net debt is much smaller than nominal.
那么，如何解决这个问题呢？首先，中国地方政府债务问题并没有看上去那么严重。中国地方政府债务与其他国家的一个重大区别在于，外债是实实在在的债务，因为借来的钱大多用于刺激消费或缓解失业。而中国地方政府的债务大多用于基础设施投资，这意味着债务背后有资产支撑，因此净债务远低于名义债务。
Second, many developing countries borrow money in foreign currencies, and China’s local government debts are yuan-denominated. Usually debts in a country’s own currency are not likely to lead to a crisis, as the country can print more money.
其次，许多发展中国家以外币借款，而中国地方政府债务以人民币计价。通常，以本国货币计价的债务不太可能引发危机，因为国家可以印钞。
So we don’t have to worry too much about China’s debt problem, but it does not mean there is no need to solve it. And the solution is just like what the documents of the third plenum say – that is, let local governments’ fiscal revenues match their responsibilities.
因此，我们不必过分担心中国的债务问题，但这并不意味着不需要解决。解决方案就像三中全会文件所说的那样––––让地方政府的财政收入与其职责相匹配。
And if the central government should issue a policy that needs infrastructure, the money should come from the central government’s pocket.
如果中央政府出台需要基础设施的政策，资金应该来自中央政府的口袋。
I think the third plenum shows China’s fiscal reform is heading in the right direction. More specific details will follow, maybe at the Politburo meeting, the annual central economic work conference or the 15th Five-Year Plan.
我认为三中全会显示中国的财政改革正朝着正确的方向前进。更具体的细节将陆续出台，可能在政治局会议、年度中央经济工作会议或“十五五”规划中。
Another noteworthy reform task is the hukou, or household registration system. The process of economic development is accompanied by urbanisation, where rural populations enter cities.
另一项值得关注的改革任务是户籍制度。经济发展过程伴随着城镇化，农村人口进入城市。
But with our old hukou system, when rural people moved to the cities, they could work or buy property but they could not enjoy the same public services – healthcare, education for children – as urban residents. And now such restrictions are gone.
但在旧的户籍制度下，当农村人口迁入城市时，他们可以工作或购买房产，但无法享受与城市居民同等的公共服务，如医疗保健和子女教育。现在这些限制已经取消。
So this is also a very important institutional reform, which is another key element to the establishment of a national unified market as we mentioned earlier.
这也是一项非常重要的制度改革，是我们前面提到的建立统一大市场的另一个关键要素。
China’s national unified market is already quite perfect in terms of the flow of products and commodities. The main obstacle is the factor market, including the labour market. So hukou reform is key to further deepening the market economic system.
中国的统一大市场在产品和商品流通方面已经相当完善。主要障碍在于要素市场，包括劳动力市场。因此，户籍制度改革是进一步深化市场经济体制的关键。
As technology containment from the US tightens and threats of higher tariffs increase, what should the Chinese government and enterprises do to maintain economic growth or the growth of their businesses? If the US imposes 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese goods, or additional tariffs, how should China respond?
随着美国对中国的技术封锁日益收紧，加征关税威胁增加，中国政府和企业应如何维持经济增长或业务增长？如果美国对所有中国商品征收60%的关税或额外关税，中国应如何应对？
Troops for the enemy, earth for floods: there will always be a way out. China should continue leveraging its advantages to develop its own economy well, open up its economy and let China’s development become something other countries can rely on.
“兵来将挡，水来土掩”，车到山前必有路。中国应继续发挥自身优势，把自己的经济发展好，开放经济，让中国的发展成为其他国家可以依赖的对象。
The US’s economic containment of China will certainly create difficulties for China, but it also creates difficulties for itself.
美国对中国的经济遏制无疑会给中国带来困难，但也会给美国自身带来麻烦。
Why is inflation so high in the US? Because it is cheaper to import directly from China. Now instead of China, it imports at higher cost from Mexico and Southeast Asia, even though many intermediate goods still come from China. So even if China’s exports to the US have decreased, our shipments to Mexico, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and Malaysia have increased. So the overall impact [of US tariffs] on the US is greater than their impact on China.
为什么美国通胀如此之高？因为直接从中国进口更便宜。现在美国转而从墨西哥和东南亚进口，成本更高，尽管许多中间产品仍来自中国。因此，即使中国对美国的出口有所下降，我们对墨西哥、越南、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚和马来西亚的出口却有所增加。总的来说，美国关税对美国自身的影响大于对中国的影响。
