美国华尔街日报网站于2024年8月23日发表题为《美联储主席鲍威尔宣布“降息时机已至”》的文章。以下观点不代表任何译者立场，现将全文翻译如下：ECONOMY | CENTRAL BANKINGFed’s Powell Declares ‘Time Has Come’ for Rate CutsFed chair says at Jackson Hole summit that central bank intends to act to stave off labor-market weakening美联储主席在杰克逊霍尔峰会上表示，央行拟采取行动防止劳动力市场进一步疲软By Paul Kierman
Updated Aug. 23, 2024 4:30 pm ET
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell issued his strongest signal yet that the central bank will soon begin cutting interest rates during a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Photo: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg News
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表演讲，发出迄今最强烈的信号，表明央行将很快开始降息。图片来源：迈克尔·纳格尔/彭博新闻社
JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave his strongest signal yet that interest-rate cuts are coming soon, saying the central bank intends to act to stave off a further weakening of the U.S. labor market怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔——美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在大提顿国家公园举行的央行年度会议上发表讲话，发出迄今为止最强烈的信号，表明即将开始降息。“We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said in a speech at the central bank’s annual gathering in the Grand Teton National Park on Friday. “The time has come for policy to adjust.”“我们并不寻求或欢迎劳动力市场条件进一步降温，”鲍威尔周五在演讲中表示。“政策调整的时机已经到来。”Investors had already been expecting a rate cut in September, but markets still reacted to Powell’s words. Stock indexes rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding more than 400 points, or about 1.1%. The Nasdaq Composite zipped up 1.5%. Treasury yields slipped.投资者此前已预期9月份将迎来降息，但市场仍对鲍威尔的言论作出反应。股指上涨，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨逾400点，涨幅约1.1%。纳斯达克综合指数飙升1.5%。美国国债收益率小幅下滑。Powell’s comments Friday all but bring to a conclusion the Fed’s historic inflation-fighting campaign, one that Powell amplified from the same stage two years ago when he signaled his readiness to accept a recession as the price of lowering inflation.鲍威尔周五的发言几乎为美联储史无前例的抗通胀运动画上句号。两年前，鲍威尔在同一讲台上表示，为了降低通胀，他准备接受经济衰退的代价。“Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was as clear a pivot toward supporting the labor market as could be imagined,” said Marc Sumerlin, managing partner at economic-consulting firm Evenflow Macro.经济咨询公司Evenflow Macro的管理合伙人马克·萨默林表示：“鲍威尔主席在杰克逊霍尔的演讲可以说是支持劳动力市场的明确转向。”Fed officials’ next policy meeting is scheduled for Sept. 17-18. They are widely expected to lower the benchmark federal-funds rate at that meeting.美联储官员下一次政策会议定于9月17日至18日举行。普遍预计他们将在该次会议上降低联邦基金利率。The Fed held rates steady at its most recent meeting in late July, though several officials saw a case for cutting at that meeting. Two days later, the Labor Department reported that unemployment rose to its highest rate in nearly three years. Inflation, while still above the Fed’s 2% target, has been falling steadily in recent months.美联储在7月下旬的最近一次会议上维持利率不变，尽管几位官员认为当时就有理由降息。两天后，美国劳工部报告称失业率升至近三年来的最高水平。虽然通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，但近几个月来一直稳步下降。“The cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable,” Powell said.“We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability,” he added.他补充道：”我们将竭尽全力支持强劲的劳动力市场，同时在物价稳定方面取得进一步进展。"The key question for financial markets and central bankers—and one that they themselves don’t yet know the answer to—is the magnitude of the interest-rate cuts that are coming in mid-September.金融市场和央行决策者面临的关键问题——他们自己也尚未知晓答案——是9月中旬即将到来的降息幅度。The Fed’s key rate is currently set in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%, widely viewed as a drag on economic activity. Market participants are divided as to whether the Fed will shave off 0.25 percentage point or 0.5 percentage point at the September meeting. Investors are also divided on what the Fed will do at its other two meetings this year, in November and December.美联储的关键利率目前设定在5.25%至5.5%之间，普遍认为这对经济活动构成拖累。市场参与者对美联储是否会在9月会议上降息0.25个百分点或0.5个百分点存在分歧。投资者对美联储今年11月和12月的其他两次会议上的行动也意见不一。While Powell was forceful in laying out the Fed’s goals, he offered no specifics about the precise way officials will deliver them. He entirely avoided certain coded words like “gradual” and “methodical” that some colleagues in recent days had used to describe their expectation for a series of traditional quarter-point rate cuts. In doing so, Powell’s silence kept the door open to larger rate cuts if the labor market shows signs of greater weakness in the weeks ahead.虽然鲍威尔在阐述美联储目标时态度坚定，但他并未具体说明官员们将如何实现这些目标。他完全避免使用某些同事近日用来描述预期一系列传统四分之一点降息的编码词，如“渐进”和“有条不紊”。通过保持沉默，鲍威尔为更大幅度的降息敞开了大门，以防未来几周劳动力市场出现更大疲软迹象。Fed officials will still get another monthly jobs report, and more readings on inflation, before the September meeting. 在9月会议之前，美联储官员们仍将获得另一份月度就业报告和更多通胀数据。Still, by all but promising that a cut is coming, Powell was far less ambiguous than in his press conference after the last Fed meeting, on July 31. At the time, Powell suggested the Fed needed a bit more data to feel confident inflation was coming down. Friday’s speech suggested that he now has that data.尽管如此，鲍威尔几乎承诺即将降息，这比他在7月31日上次美联储会议后的新闻发布会上要明确得多。当时，鲍威尔暗示美联储需要更多数据才能确信通胀正在下降。周五的演讲表明，他现在已经获得了这些数据。“The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” Powell said Friday.鲍威尔周五表示：“前进的方向已经明确，降息的时机和步伐将取决于未来的数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平衡。”The Fed’s actions in the coming weeks and months could be pivotal for the U.S. economy and for Powell, who has served at the central bank since 2012 and was elevated to the top job by President Trump in 2018 and tapped for a second term as chair by President Biden.美联储未来几周和几个月的行动对美国经济和鲍威尔本人而言可能至关重要。鲍威尔自2012年起在美联储任职，2018年由特朗普总统提拔为主席，并由拜登总统任命连任。
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in a white shirt, at the central bank’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Friday. PHOTO: NATALIE BEHRING/BLOOMBERG NEWS
身着白衬衫的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，周五出席在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行年度会议。图片来源：娜塔莉·贝林/彭博新闻社
Central bankers raised interest rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023, determined to wrestle down the highest inflation in four decades. But the U.S. economy has defied expectations of a slowdown despite the elevated borrowing costs, and inflation came down while the labor market remained historically strong.央行决策者在2022年和2023年大幅加息，下决心抑制40年来最高的通胀。但尽管借贷成本居高不下，美国经济仍超出预期，通胀下降的同时劳动力市场保持历史性强劲。The recent rise in joblessness has thrown into question whether that situation will continue. The unemployment rate has risen from 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.3% in July. Inflation, using the Fed’s preferred gauge, was 2.5% in June, its most recent reading. 近期失业率上升引发人们质疑这种情况是否会持续。失业率从2023年4月的3.4%上升到7月的4.3%。根据美联储的标准，6月份最新通胀率为2.5%。Powell expressed hope that an elusive “soft landing” for the U.S. economy remains within reach, though he didn’t use the term.鲍威尔表示希望美国经济能够实现艰难的“软着陆”，尽管他没有使用这个词。“With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labor market,” he said. 他表示：“通过适当放松政策限制，我们有充分理由认为经济将在保持强劲劳动力市场的同时回归2%的通胀率。”
