英国《经济学人》网站于2023年5月10日发表题为《中国经济增长的核心之谜》的文章。以下观点不代表任何译者立场，现将全文翻译如下：
Finance & economics | National statistics, grilledThe meaty mystery at the heart of China’s economic growthWhat kebab consumption says about the country’s consumption![]()
Over the past few decades, the small, industrial city of Zibo has been best-known for its petrochemical output. In recent months, however, it has become the centre of a national barbecue craze and social-media phenomenon unlike anything China has seen before. Tourists have flooded the city in the central province of Shandong in the hope of munching its mythical kebabs, posting videos on Douyin, the local version of TikTok, and then departing. Arenas have been converted into makeshift dining halls in order to cope with the massed crowds. To ease constraints on the supplies of meat and grills, local banks have started handing out low-interest loans designed specifically for merchants in barbecue-related industries.过去几十年里，传统工业城市淄博一直以石化产品闻名，然而最近几个月，淄博因烤串爆火全国，在社交媒体上掀起热潮，这在中国前所未见。游客纷纷涌向这座位于山东中部的城市，希望一品传说中的美味烤串，在抖音上发布视频，之后便离开。人流量过大，以至于体育场都变成了临时餐厅。为了缓解肉和烤架的供应问题，当地银行开始提供专门针对烧烤相关行业商户的低息贷款。During the recent May Day holiday, one of the most important weeks of the year for domestic shopping and entertainment spending, the chemicals hub was listed as a top tourist destination alongside other popular places such as the Great Wall and the Terracotta Warriors. A widely shared internet meme jokes that the last time this many people showed up in the city was during the Siege of Qi, a famous battle that took place in the area in 284bc.在最近的“五一”假期，这个化工重镇成为热门旅游地，与长城、兵马俑等热门景点齐名。一则广泛流传的网络段子戏称，上一次淄博这么热闹，还是在齐国的时候。公元前284年，著名的济西之战中燕国名将乐毅统率燕、秦、赵、韩、魏五国联军及被其策反的楚军伐齐，包围的正是淄博。This frenzied activity in Zibo should be helping China recover. Analysts have highlighted consumption as a bright spot in the Chinese economy this year amid a gloomier outlook for construction and manufacturing. Indeed, at first glance activity during the recent holiday appears to be strong. The resumption in tourism has been stunning. A record 274m people travelled, up 19% from before the pandemic.淄博的狂欢应该有助于经济恢复。分析师纷纷指出，相较于前景黯淡的建筑和制造业，2023年度，消费应该成为中国经济的亮点。确实，乍一看最近的五一假期的消费相当强劲，旅游业的恢复令人瞩目，达到了创记录的2.74亿人次，比疫情前增长了19％。仅仅数月之前，一场短途旅行还可能让你喜提几周禁闭。疫情前水平为100，淡蓝色是全国国内游客数，深蓝色是旅游业收入；Labour day是劳动节，National day是国庆节；来源：高盛
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Yet other data reveal a more modest recovery—only to levels last seen in 2019, before covid-19, and not beyond them. Although more people travelled this year, spending per head was down by more than 10% against 2019, according to HSBC, a bank. As a consequence, domestic tourism revenues were up by a mere 0.7% on four years ago. “Chinese consumers are not back to normal,” warns the boss of an asset-management firm. They are focused on food and fun, not big-ticket items like cars, he says. Auto sales were down 1.4% year on year in the first four months of 2023.然而，其他数据显示出复苏更加平缓，仅达到但并没有超过2019年疫情前的水平。根据汇丰银行，尽管今年出游人数更多，但人均消费水平比2019年下降了超过10％。因此，国内旅游收入仅比四年前增加了0.7％。一家资产管理公司的老板警告称：“中国消费者还没有回到正常状态。”他说，人们关注的是食品和娱乐，而不是汽车这样的大件。汽车销售在2023年头四个月同比下降了1.4％。Young folk are going out of their way to spend less. Since the end of zero-covid, many tourists have described themselves as “special-ops” travellers. This alludes to dropping into a location, spending as little time and money as possible, and then moving on to the next spot—much as an elite military outfit might pass through a location unnoticed. The activity has become something of a sport, where young people visit a list of popular places and check them off by posting pictures on social media. Zibo’s kebabs have been one of the top items to tick off from the list.年轻人正在尽力减少开支。放开以来，许多游客自称“特种兵式”旅客，意思是他们连夜赶赴一个地方，尽可能少花时间少花钱，然后移动到下一个地方，很像特种兵潜伏过境。这种活动已经成为一种风潮，年轻人按热门旅游地清单出游，再在社交媒体上发图片打卡。淄博的烤串就是清单中的最佳选择之一。It is not, though, just youthful frugality behind weak consumption figures. Urban disposable incomes barely grew, at least by Chinese standards, in the first three months of the year, up just 2.7% in real terms compared to the same period a year ago, notes Raymond Yeung of ANZ, a bank. A fifth of youngsters are now out of work, double the rate in April 2019, he adds.然而，消费数据不振不仅是因为年轻人的节俭。澳新银行大中华区首席经济学家杨宇霆指出，至少按中国标准来看，今年前三个月的城镇居民可支配收入几乎没有增长，同比实际增长仅为2.7%。他补充道，五分之一的年轻人失业，这是2019年4月的两倍。Zibo kebabs are the perfect treat for a budget traveller. They are consumed at low tables with a small stove, heated by coal. When the fat starts to drip, the meat is scraped into a thin pancake and dipped first into a garlic and chilli paste and then into a salty mixture of sesame and peanut. A bottle of the city’s local beer, called Lulansha, comes to less than three yuan ($0.40). Four people can eat and drink for hours on less than 350 yuan. The craze is about more than the simple food. One barbecue purveyor who has operated a shop for several years in the city’s Linzi district points out that anyone can sell chuan’r, as the dish is called locally. It is Shandong’s big-hearted hospitality that people across the country are seeking out in Zibo.淄博烤串对于囊中羞涩的旅行者而言是完美的体验。他们在低桌旁用小炭炉烤串，脂肪开始滴落时，将卷饼先蘸上蒜蓉辣椒酱，然后是咸芝麻花生碎，最后把肉一把撸进薄薄的卷饼里。淄博的本地啤酒绿兰莎价格不到3元，四个人可以花不到350元吃喝玩乐数小时。这股热潮不仅仅在于简单的食物。一家在临淄区经营数年的烤串店老板说，任何人都可以卖串儿，串儿就是当地人对这道美食的称呼。正是这种山东的大方好客，吸引了全国各地的人们涌向淄博。Yet the cheap eats have stirred controversy among social commentators. Wu Xiaobo, a popular author, wrote recently that viral internet trends playing out on the streets of cities such as Zibo are evidence of a robust free-market economy at work in China. His article, however, generated such a backlash that it has been censored.然而，社评人对于这种廉价食品存在颇多争议。著名作家吴晓波最近写道，淄博等城市火遍大街小巷，成为互联网风潮，是强大自由市场经济发挥作用的证明。不过他的文章后坐力太大，遭到和谐。Others are less sanguine. One widely circulated article, by Liu Yadong, a professor, asserts that the trend is evidence of social decay in China, with young people fixated on online fads that hold little cultural value. Another article, by Wang Mingyuan, a think-tank researcher, suggests that the barbecue hype is a sign of the end of a decades-long economic cycle. The small cities where most of China’s population dwell have run out of more standard drivers of growth; the demographic dividend is running low, as the country’s population ages. Thus local officials must leap on whatever passing internet craze comes their way. How much longer, Mr Wang asks, can the barbecue party continue? 其他人则没有那么乐观。南开大学新闻与传播学院院长刘亚东教授也写了一篇广泛流传的文章，他断言，这一趋势是社会荒芜化随机的、空洞的表现，年轻人着迷于缺乏文化价值的网络风潮。另一篇来自北京发展改革研究会研究员王明远的文章，写道烧烤之热是数十年经济周期结束的迹象。大多数中国人口居住的小城市已经用尽了工业化和城市化两个更标准的增长驱动力，人口红利基本耗光，人口正在老龄化。因此，当地官员必须抓住任何转瞬即逝的互联网风潮。王明远问道，这种火爆是否能持久呢？喧闹之后是什么呢？ ■This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline "Kebab consumption”
