日本新首相石破茂是自家党派最尖锐的批评者
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2024-10-04 12:12
美国
英国经济学人网站于2024年10月1日发表题为《日本新首相是自家党派最尖锐的批评者》的文章。以下观点不代表任何译者立场，现将全文翻译如下：Asia | The outsider otakuJapan’s new prime minister is his own party’s sternest criticThis could make it harder for Ishiba Shigeru to govern effectivelyIshiba shigeru, Japan’s new prime minister, knows what his colleagues think of him. “I have undoubtedly hurt many people’s feelings, caused unpleasant experiences and made many suffer,” he said apologetically in his final speech during the race for the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (ldp). Throughout his 38 years in parliament, Mr Ishiba has been a gadfly. That outspokenness endeared him to voters, but made him an outsider within the ldp. His first four leadership bids failed. Someone like him could win only if the ldp faced a major “roadblock” and “divine will” intervened, Mr Ishiba wrote in a book published this summer.日本新任首相石破茂深知同僚对他的看法。在自民党领导人竞选的最后一场演讲中，他抱歉地表示：“我无疑伤害过许多人的感情，给人留下过不愉快的经历，也让很多人不舒服过。”当了38年议员，石破一直像苍蝇一样不招人待见。这种直言不讳赢得了选民的青睐，却让他在自民党内成为局外人。他此前四次竞选党首均以失败告终。今年夏天出版的一本书中，石破写道，只有当自民党面临重大“障碍”且有“天意”介入时，像他这样的人才有可能胜出。Divine will or not, Mr Ishiba triumphed on his fifth attempt last week, and on October 1st he became Japan’s prime minister. His selection does not herald a drastic change of trajectory in Japan’s foreign or economic policies. But the gadfly may struggle to govern. That would leave Japan less capable of meeting the myriad challenges it faces at home and abroad. Mr Ishiba’s fate will depend largely on the ldp’s showing in snap elections for the lower house on October 27th.不论是否有天意相助，石破终于在第五次胜选，并于10月1日正式就任日本首相。他的当选并不意味着日本外交或经济政策将出现重大转向。然而，石破这只党内苍蝇可能难以有效施政，这将削弱日本应对国内外诸多挑战的能力。石破的命运很大程度上取决于自民党在10月27日举行的众议院补选。Mr Ishiba’s surprise win reflects the sense of crisis inside the ldp, which has ruled Japan with only two brief interruptions since 1955. A recent scandal over the misuse of political funds has dragged the party’s approval ratings down. Though it is not yet in danger of losing power, many in the ldp worry about losing swathes of seats. By choosing Mr Ishiba, the ldp opted for its most popular figure, hoping that a change of leadership style will mollify an angry public. His victory also illustrates the fear that many felt about Takaichi Sanae, a hard-right nationalist whom Mr Ishiba edged out in a second-round run-off.石破的意外胜利反映了自民党内部的危机感。日本自民党自1955年以来，除两次短暂中断外，一直掌握着日本政权。近期一起政治资金滥用丑闻拖累了自民党的支持率。尽管尚未面临失去政权的危险，但许多党内人士担心会失去大量席位。自民党选择石破这位日本民众最欢迎的人物，就是希望通过改变领导风格来安抚愤怒的公众。他的胜利也体现了许多人对高市早苗这位强硬右翼民族主义者的担忧，石破在第二轮决选中险胜高市。Mr Ishiba defies easy categorisation “because he’s so heterodoxical on the issues”, says Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight, a political-risk consultancy. He entered politics after the death of his father, a long-serving ldp politician, in 1981. His mentor was Tanaka Kakuei, a powerful ldp leader who championed the country’s poorer parts. Hailing from Tottori, a sand-dune-strewn prefecture on the northern coast of Japan’s main island, Mr Ishiba inherited Tanaka’s commitment to overlooked regions, as well as his emphasis on door-to-door campaigning. He calls himself a “conservative liberal”.日本前瞻政治风险咨询公司的Tobias Harris认为很难简单为石破进行归类，“因为他在各种问题上的立场都非常特立独行”。1981年父亲（一位长期担任自民党议员的政治家）去世后，石破步入政坛，他的导师是田中角荣，一位主张扶持日本贫困地区的有影响力的自民党领导人。石破来自鸟取县，位于日本本州北部海岸，以沙丘著称。他继承了田中对被忽视地区的关注，以及重视挨家挨户拉票的做法。他称自己是“保守自由主义者”。The new prime minister has also used his personal obsessions to help build his popular appeal. Like many of his compatriots, he is a train aficionado and loves ramen (he made headlines for eating 12 bowls in a day). He once appeared in public in the costume of Majin Buu, a character from Dragon Ball, a popular manga series.新首相还利用个人爱好来提升公众好感度。与许多日本人一样，他是个铁道迷，也酷爱拉面（他曾因一天吃12碗拉面登上头条）。他还曾经公开cos过《龙珠》漫画中的魔人布欧。The character he has played throughout his own career has been consistent. “He’s the party’s critic,” says Gerald Curtis of Columbia University. In the early 1990s he left the ldp, helping bring about its first electoral loss and earning himself a reputation as a traitor. After returning, he emerged as the most outspoken detractor of Abe Shinzo, Japan’s longest-serving leader, whom he accused of stifling debate. He believes a politician’s job is to “speak the truth with courage and sincerity”.纵观石破的政治生涯，他塑造的形象始终如一。哥伦比亚大学的杰拉尔德·柯蒂斯说：“他是党内的批评者。”九十年代初，他曾脱离自民党，促成了自民党的首次选举失利，因此被视为“叛徒”。重返党内后，他成为对安倍晋三（日本在任时间最长的领导人）最直言不讳的批评者，指责安倍压制言论。他认为，政治家的职责是“勇敢诚实地说出真相”。His own policy positions are hard to pin down, however. A former minister of regional revitalisation and of agriculture, Mr Ishiba frames his economic agenda around a vague desire to elevate Japan’s greying, depopulating countryside. On social issues, he has shown a liberal streak. He supports letting married couples keep separate surnames—a proxy for broader battles over sexism and family life.然而，石破自身的政策立场却难以界定。作为前地方创生大臣和农林水产大臣，他的经济议程围绕着一个模糊的愿望：振兴日本正在老龄化和人口减少的乡村地区。在社会问题上，他表现出自由倾向。他支持已婚夫妇保留各自姓氏的权利——这是更广泛的性别歧视和家庭生活之争的一个缩影。A self-proclaimed defence otaku (obsessive), Mr Ishiba is a former defence minister and an avid collector of model planes and warships. He has long bristled at subordination to America, arguing for Japan to take on a bigger security role and create a more equal alliance. Although Mr Ishiba favours strengthening Japan’s armed forces to counter China, he also places great importance on maintaining dialogue. He is clear-eyed about Japan’s history of imperial aggression, and supports better relations with South Korea, its former colony.作为自称的国防“宅”（狂热爱好者），石破曾担任防卫大臣，酷爱收藏飞机和军舰模型。长期以来，他对屈从于美国感到不满，主张日本应承担更大的安全角色，建立更平等的同盟关系。尽管石破赞成加强日本武装力量以应对中国，但他也十分重视保持对话。他对日本帝国侵略历史的认识清晰，支持改善与前殖民地韩国的关系。Yet he has also advocated some provocative ideas that worry officials in Washington, as well as his own bureaucrats. Most notably, he has called for creating an “Asian nato”, to link America’s various bilateral alliances in the region into a collective one. He has also suggested revising the agreement that governs how American military forces operate in Japan. The issue is a “classic Pandora’s box”, says Michael Green, a former American official.然而，他提出的一些想法咄咄逼人，令华盛顿官员和日本本国官僚担忧。最引人注目的是，他呼吁建立“亚洲北约”，将美国在亚洲的各种双边同盟联系成一个集体同盟。他还建议修改管理美军在日本驻军的协议。前美国官员Michael Green称，这个问题是“典型的潘多拉魔盒”。As prime minister Mr Ishiba will face an uncomfortable choice. He can continue to pursue the provocative approach that won him public favour, but risk losing the support of fellow party members. Or he can bow to the realities of governing, but risk losing the public.作为首相，石破将面临二难选择。他可以继续追求赢得公众青睐的挑衅方式，同时冒着失去党内同僚支持的风险。或者他可以屈从于执政现实，但那样可能失去公众支持。Some initial steps suggest that he will aim for pragmatism. Kishida Fumio, the outgoing prime minister, backed Mr Ishiba over the hard-right Ms Takaichi, in part to ensure that his diplomatic legacy remains intact. “We will inherit the entire foreign and security policy from the Kishida administration,” says Nagashima Akihisa, a veteran lawmaker appointed as a national-security aide to Mr Ishiba. Yet the prime minister still has his preoccupations: during his first press conference he defended his ideas about the alliance with America.一些初步举措表明，他将致力于务实路线。即将卸任的首相岸田文雄支持石破而非极右翼的高市，部分原因是为了确保其外交遗产得以延续。被任命为石破国家安全顾问的资深议员长岛昭久表示：“我们将全面继承岸田政府的外交和安全政策。”然而，首相仍有自己的关注点：在首次记者会上，他为自己关于美日同盟的想法进行了辩护。Either way, Mr Ishiba may have a tough time hanging on. The ldp’s right wing has been hostile to him: Ms Takaichi rejected the olive branch of a senior party post under the new leader. He has few loyal allies inside the party. He will have to navigate the upcoming lower-house elections, build ties with a new American president, and then face upper-house elections next summer. Many in Japan’s political circles already suspect that another ldp leadership struggle will soon follow. 无论如何，石破可能难以长期执政。自民党右翼一直对他怀有敌意：高市拒绝了新领导人提供的高级党内职位橄榄枝。他在党内鲜有忠实盟友。他将不得不应对即将到来的众议院选举，与新任美国总统建立关系，然后在明年夏天面对参议院选举。日本政界许多人已经预感到，另一场自民党领导权争夺战可能很快就会来临。■
