论文速递 | ​区间过程荷载下不确定性结构非概率时变可靠性分析

文摘   2024-10-25 19:00   上海  
Nonprobabilistic time-dependent reliability analysis for uncertain structures under interval process loads

区间过程荷下不确定性结构非概率时变可靠性分析

引用格式 | Cited by
Gong JL, Wang XJ, Lv TQ, Yang JL, Zhou LH, 2024. Nonprobabilistic time-dependent reliability analysis for uncertain structures under interval process loads. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 78: 103687.
DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103687
摘要 | Abstract
本文提出了一种新的非概率分析框架来评估时变载下不确定性结构的时可靠性。首先,结合区间过程积分和代理区间分析,提出了一种新的不确定性传播方法,并分析了相邻时间步长响应的相关系数。然后,基于首次超越理论和建立的区间模型,分析了非概率时变可靠性。与现有考虑时不变外载的非概率方法不同,所提方法采用区间过程描述时变外载,从而具有更广泛的适用性。与现有考虑时变载的非概率方法相比,所提方法基于首次越理论建立了更精细化的非概率时变可靠性模型,具有更高精度。通过数值算例和工程应用验证了所提方法的有效性和优越性。
关键词: 时变不确定性, 区间过程, 非概率分析, 时可靠性, Kriging 代理模型
In this paper, a novel nonprobabilistic analysis framework is proposed to evaluate the time-dependent reliability of uncertain structures under time-varying loads. Firstly, a novel uncertainty propagation method is developed by combining interval process integration and surrogate-based interval analysis and the correlation coefficient between responses of adjacent time steps is further analyzed. Subsequently, the nonprobabilistic time-dependent reliability is analyzed base on the first-passage theory and the established interval model. Unlike existing nonprobabilistic methods that consider time-invariant external loads, the proposed method applies an interval process to describe time-varying external loads, thereby offering a broader range of applicability. Compared to existing nonprobabilistic methods that consider time-varying loads, the proposed method establishes a more refined nonprobabilistic time-dependent reliability model based on the first passage theory, achieving higher accuracy. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are validated through a numerical example and an engineering application.
KeywordsTime-varying uncertainty; Interval process; Non Probabilistic analysis; Time-dependent reliability; Kriging surrogate model.
创新点 | Highlights
  • 提出了一种结构时变可靠性评估的非概率分析框架

  • 引入区间过程来描述时变不确定性

  • 结合非随机振动理论和代理优化,提出了一类区间分析新方法

  • 基于二阶近似推导出结构响应的非概率相关系数
  • 数值算例表明,时变可靠度比传统时不变可靠具有更高精度
  • A nonprobabilistic analysis framework for structural time-dependent reliability evaluation is proposed.

  • The interval process is introduced to describe time-varying uncertain loads.

  • A novel interval analysis method is developed by combining nonrandom vibration theory and surrogate-based optimization.
  • The nonprobabilistic correlation coefficient of structural response is derived based on second order approximation.
  • Numerical example shows higher accuracy of time-dependent reliability than traditional time-independent reliability.

图 1: 区间过程及其量化示意图

Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of interval process and its quantification

图 2: 不确定性结构的区间动力学分析示意图

Fig. 2. Schematic diagram of interval dynamic analysis for uncertain structures

图 3: 时变载下非概率不确定性结构的不确定性传播分析流程图

Fig. 3. Flowchart of performing uncertainty propagation analysis for structures with nonprobabilistic uncertainties under time-dependent loads

图 4: 非概率时变可靠性分析示意图

Fig. 4. Schematical plot for the nonprobabilistic time-dependent reliability analysis

图 5: 线性阻尼-质量-弹簧系统示意图

Fig. 5. Schematic plot of linear damped mass-spring system

图 6: 五个外力样本

Fig. 6. Five samples of external force p^I (t)

图 7: 五个外力样本对应的上下限函数与确定性响应

Fig. 7. Upper and lower bound functions and deterministic responses corresponding to the five external force samples

图 8: 相邻时点位移响应的非概率相关系数

Fig. 8. Nonprobabilistic correlation coefficients between displacement responses at adjacent time points

图 9: 不同自相关系数函数的位移响应界限

Fig. 9. Displacement response bounds of different auto-correlation coefficient functions

图 10: 蒙特卡罗模拟、所提方法与赵刚等人方法求解时变可靠结果的对比

Fig. 10. Comparison of the time-dependent reliability results solved by MCS, the proposed method and method in Zhao et al. (2022)

图 11: 蒙特卡罗模拟、所提方法与赵刚等人方法的时变可靠度

Fig. 11. Time-dependent reliability of MCS, the proposed method and method in Zhao et al. (2022)

图 12: 所提方法与赵刚等人方法的相对误差

Fig. 12. Relative errors of the proposed method and method in Zhao et al. (2022)

图 13: 简化翼盒结构

Fig. 13. Simplified wing box structure

图 14: 外荷载区间过程

Fig. 14. Interval process of external load x (t)

图 15: B 点位移响应界限

Fig. 15. Displacement response bounds of point B

图 16: 相邻时点位移响应的非概率相关系数

Fig. 16. Nonprobabilistic correlation coefficients between displacement responses at adjacent time points

图 17: 简化翼盒结构的时变可靠度结果

Fig. 17. Time-dependent reliability results simplified wing box structure

作者信息 | Authors

龚荆蕾 Jing-Lei Gong

北京航空航天大学 (Beihang University) 航空科学与工程学院

王晓军 Xiao-Jun Wang通讯作者 (Corresp.)
北京航空航天大学 (Beihang University) 航空科学与工程学院

Email: xjwang@buaa.edu.cn

吕堂祺 Tang-Qi Lv

中国船舶重工集团公司 (Shanghai Marine Equipment Research Institute) 第七0四研究所

杨珺柳 Jun-Liu Yang

中国船舶重工集团公司 (Shanghai Marine Equipment Research Institute) 第七0四研究所

Lin-Hui Zhou

中国船舶重工集团公司 (Shanghai Marine Equipment Research Institute) 第七0四研究所



律梦泽 M.Z. Lyu | 编辑 (Ed) 

P.D. Spanos | 审校 (Rev)

陈建兵 J.B. Chen | 审校 (Rev)

彭勇波 Y.B. Peng | 审校 (Rev)

Probab Eng Mech
国际学术期刊 Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics 创立于 1985 年,SCI 收录,JCR Q1,现任主编是美国工程院院士、中国科学院外籍院士、莱斯大学 Pol D. Spanos 教授。
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