Hybrid Bayesian-copula-based damage probability estimation for steel-concrete composite tall buildings under concurrent seismic and wind loads地震与风耦合作用下基于混合贝叶斯-Copula 方法的高层钢混组合建筑地震破坏概率评估
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Zheng XW, Cheng J, Zhang LX, Xie XX, 2024. Hybrid Bayesian-copula-based damage probability estimation for steel-concrete composite tall buildings under concurrent seismic and wind loads. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 78: 103693.DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103693
服役寿命长的高层建筑不可避免地面临多种灾害，各类因素的不确定性对结构全寿命安全评估有很大影响。本研究提出了一种基于贝叶斯-Copula 的混合方法，用于评估高层建筑在同时存在各类不确定性的地震和强风激励下的损伤风险。本研究对概率多灾害风险评估领域的主要贡献包括: (1) 采用贝叶斯统计方法开发单一地震和强风边缘概率模型中未知参数的后验概率分布以及用于易损性估计的多灾害需求模型参数。(2) 采用贝叶斯方法更新现有的地震和强风联合概率模型。(3) 提出了一种估计多灾害易损性界限的新方法。通过计算模型参数定义域内的总概率来量化损伤风险评估未知需求模型参数的认知不确定性。选取一栋 42 层的代表性复合建筑来实现这种多灾害损伤风险评估方法。本研究的应用展现了认知不确定性和荷载方向对损伤风险的巨大影响。所提贝叶斯-Copula 方法有利于多灾害下高层建筑的决策。关键词: 多灾害, 贝叶斯定理, 不确定性, 损伤风险, 组合结构Tall buildings with long service periods inevitably face multiple hazards, and the uncertainty associated with various factors has a considerable impact on life-cycle structural safety estimation. This study presents a hybrid Bayesian-Copula-based methodology for evaluating the damage risk e of tall buildings under concurrent seismic and strong wind excitations that incorporate various uncertainties. The main contributions of this study to the field of probabilistic multi-hazard risk assessment include the following: (1) The Bayes statistic method is employed to develop posterior probability distributions of the unknown parameters in the marginal probability models of an individual earthquake and strong wind as well as parameters involved in the multi-hazard demand model for fragility estimation. (2) The Bayesian-based method is applied to update the existing joint probabilistic model of earthquakes and strong winds. (3) A new method is presented to estimate the muti-hazard fragility bounds. The damage risk assessment quantifies the epistemic uncertainties of the unknown demand model parameters by calculating the total probability in the domain of the definition of the model parameters. A representative composite building with 42 floors is selected to perform this multi-hazard damage risk assessment method. The application of this study highlights the considerable impact of epistemic uncertainties and loading directions on damage risk. This presented Bayesian-Copula-based method is beneficial for decision-making involving tall buildings subjected to multiple hazards.Keywords: Multi-hazard; Bayes theorem; Uncertainty; Damage risk; Composite structure.Fig. 1. General concept of this Bayesian-Copula-based method
图 2: 地震动峰值加速度与风速的贝叶斯-Copula 联合模型Fig. 2. A Bayesian-Copula-based joint model of PGA and V
Fig. 3. Plan and 3-dimensional views of this tall building
Fig. 4. Elastic response and code-specified spectra
Fig. 5. A random combination of PGA and V
Fig. 6. Sketch of loading cases
图 7: 风速 20 m/s 下的易损性曲线及其相应置信界Fig. 7. Fragility curves and their corresponding confidence bounds with V = 20 m/s
Fig. 8. Fragility surfaces under moderate for different loading cases
Fig. 9. Total damage risk under moderate for different loading cases
图 10: 给定地震动峰值加速度 0.05 g 时中度状态下四类工况的损伤风险Fig. 10. Damage risk given PGA of 0.05 g under moderate state for four cases
作者信息 | Authors
郑晓伟 Xiao-Wei Zheng, 通讯作者 (Corresp.)中国矿业大学 (China University of Mining & Technology) 力学与土木工程学院Email: xwz217@163.com
中国矿业大学 (China University of Mining & Technology) 力学与土木工程学院
中国地震局 (China Earthquake Administration) 工程力学研究所
中国地震局 (China Earthquake Administration) 工程力学研究所
律梦泽 M.Z. Lyu | 编辑 (Ed)
P.D. Spanos | 审校 (Rev)
陈建兵 J.B. Chen | 审校 (Rev)
彭勇波 Y.B. Peng | 审校 (Rev)
