An improved interval prediction method for recurrence period wind speed重现期风速的改进区间预测方法
![]()
Chen WH, Tian YJ, Tian YY, Guan HW, 2024. An improved interval prediction method for recurrence period wind speed. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 77: 103675.DOI: 10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103675
基于改进的区间运算理论，构建了重现期风速区间预测的改进表达，采用近似一阶 Taylor 级数展开。根据北京、济南、南京、无锡、上海和深圳测得的风速数据，分别使用改进方法和传统方法预测重现期风速区间。此外，对比分析了相同置信水平下，改进方法和传统方法预测的区间结果。结果表明，在给定极值分布模型下，改进方法对不同参数估计具有良好适用性，重现期风速的区间预测结果基本稳定。与传统方法预测的区间结果相比，改进方法预测的区间更可能接近或包含重现期风速的精确解，具有更高的预测精度。此外，改进方法的计算过程相对简单，可以实现区间预测的简化计算。关键词: 观测风速, 区间, Taylor 级数, 统计, 适用性Based on the improved interval operation theory, an improved expression of the return period wind speed interval prediction is constructed by using an approximate first-order Taylor series expansion. According to the measured wind speed data in Beijing, Jinan, Nanjing, Wuxi, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the improved method and the traditional method are respectively used to predict the interval of the return period wind speed. Furthermore, the interval results predicted by the improved method and the traditional method are compared and analyzed under the same confidence level. Results show that the improved method has good applicability for different parameter estimation methods under the condition of certain extreme value distribution model, and the interval prediction results of the return period wind speed are basically stable. Compared with the interval results predicted by the traditional method, the interval predicted by the improved method is more likely to be close to or contain the exact solution of the return period wind speed, which has higher prediction accuracy. In addition, the calculation process of the improved method is relatively simple and can realize the simplified calculation of interval prediction.
Keywords: Measured wind speed; Interval; Taylor series; Statistic; Applicability.Fig. 1. Analysis of the improved CI prediction results of RPWS
图 2: 改进方法与传统方法的置信区间预测结果对比Fig. 2. Comparison of the CI prediction results between the improved method and the traditional method
作者信息 | Authors
陈伟湖 Wei-Hu Chen, 通讯作者 (Corresp.)北京交通大学 (Beijing Jiaotong University) 土木建筑工程学院Email: 20115045@bjtu.edu.cn
北京交通大学 (Beijing Jiaotong University) 土木建筑工程学院
北京交通大学 (Beijing Jiaotong University) 土木建筑工程学院
北京交通大学 (Beijing Jiaotong University) 土木建筑工程学院
律梦泽 M.Z. Lyu | 编辑 (Ed)
P.D. Spanos | 审校 (Rev)
陈建兵 J.B. Chen | 审校 (Rev)
彭勇波 Y.B. Peng | 审校 (Rev)
