【TIO 太和观察家】Geopolitical Competition Haunts the World

文摘   财经   2024-11-13 17:42   北京  


 


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☉ 太和智库线上英文刊物《太和观察家》2024年10月刊第49期原创文章,转载请注明出处

☉ This article is from the October issue of TI Observer (TIO), an online publication of Taihe Institute. Please indicate the source if you hope to share this article.

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正文2109字,读完约需9分钟。

Wordcount: 2109. The article will take about 9 minutes to read.



吴海龙

Wu Hailong


·中国公共外交协会会长

·President of the China Public Diplomacy Association


Introduction


The interconnected nature of today's global challenges calls for unity among nations. However, escalating geopolitical instability and deepening divisions are obstructing paths toward collaborative international efforts. To explore potential avenues for global cooperation amidst an increasingly complex and polarized international landscape, the Sub-Session on International Relations of the 8th Taihe Civilizations Forum (TCF) was convened on September 20, 2024 in Beijing. The following speech was given at the event and has been edited for clarity.

A specter is haunting our world - geopolitical competition. Increasingly, the US and its allies are viewing international relations through the lens of geopolitical competition, resulting in heightened conflicts and confrontations. People of goodwill are averse to this trend. Having suffered numerous calamities, humanity longs for peace, stability, and development. Yet, this troubling reality is what we face today.


The US allies in NATO, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific - the US-led Western bloc - have engaged in this geopolitical competition, either consciously or unconsciously. Undoubtedly, they perceive China as "the greatest geopolitical competitor" and "the biggest challenge and threat." Recently, Kurt Campbell, the US Deputy Secretary of State, labeled China as "the defining geopolitical challenge confronting modern American diplomacy." Just this past Wednesday (September 18, 2024), he reiterated that China is the top challenge to the United States in all its history. It's evident that Campbell's perspective is mired in the zero-sum thinking, filled with hostility and bias against China. In recent years, senior officials in the Biden administration have consistently clamored for "the most intense competition" with China.

NATO, which claims to be a defensive organization that safeguards European security, is now causing disturbances in Europe. It has also extended its reach into the Asia-Pacific, persistently interfering in regional matters. NATO justifies these actions by claiming that China threatens its interests, security, and values - an accusation that is entirely fabricated. NATO's current actions appear to be greatly aligned with the overall US geopolitical strategies.

Europe once maintained a relatively independent policy toward China. For decades, it took a cooperation-based approach toward China and gained enormously from it. In recent years, however, Europe's policy toward China has become "Americanized." They now view China as a "main competitor" and even "the greatest challenge." Europe's stance on China is moving into closer alignment with the US. Europe once proclaimed its goal of achieving "strategic autonomy," but today, that seems little more than a distant pipe dream.

Several US allies near China's borders, supported and abetted by the US, persistently provoke disputes with China and challenge China's interests and rights. Their actions serve US geopolitical objectives.

The goal of the US geopolitical competition is to unite allies around a US-led bloc, strategically isolating and suppressing China across political, military, diplomatic, economic, and technological fronts. The objective is to slow China's growth, weaken its capabilities, and diminish its global influence. Over the last eight years, whether under Donald Trump's Republican government or Joe Biden's Democratic government, the US has implemented a series of containment measures against China. The US has even launched protectionist trade and technology measures against China, employing tactics such as decoupling, disrupting supply chains, imposing sales bans, and slapping sanctions to curtail Chinese industries that might be perceived as threatening the US dominance. Following the US footsteps, Europe has introduced its policy of "de-risking" from China, citing "overcapacity," "anti-subsidy," and "anti-dumping" claims to undermine China's competitive edge in key industries.

However, we do not seek geopolitical competition with any nation. We are not interested in establishing spheres of influence, forming cliques, provoking bloc confrontations, or forging military alliances. We do not want to lead, let alone dominate, the world, nor do we aspire to emulate the US. Our goal is to work tirelessly for our country's prosperity and to improve the lives of our people. We welcome collaboration with any nation or region that wants to work with us. We are ready to provide more opportunities to countries and regions across the globe, contribute more to the world, work together toward mutual development and common prosperity, and jointly build a better world for everyone. This represents our clear and firm response to those pushing for geopolitical competition and threatening to engage in "the most intense competition" with China.

Despite Western geopolitical motivations that have led to restrictions, obstructions, and blockades in trade and technology against China, these measures have not slowed China's growth. Instead, they have acted as a catalyst for China's technological innovation. Through hard work and ingenuity, the Chinese people are developing and solidifying their strengths in more industries and products. For example, despite US attempts to "choke" China's chip supply, China's chip exports surged to more than 540 billion CNY in the first half of this year, marking a year-on-year increase of nearly 26%. Chips are poised to become China's top export category this year, and by 2030, China is on track to become the world's leading chip exporter. At the same time, China is launching a new generation of smartphones equipped with satellite communications and smart technologies. In the first half of 2024, domestic smartphone shipments in China exceeded 147 million units, a year-on-year increase of over 13%, with total annual shipments projected to reach 300 million units. Despite being targeted by US sanctions, Huawei managed to top Chinese foldable smartphone shipments in the first half of 2024. China's automobile industry has also made significant strides, exporting more cars than any other country in 2023. Our development of new energy vehicles has been particularly remarkable: China now takes the lead in the new energy passenger vehicle market and accounts for over 63% of the global market share. Similarly, China's photovoltaic (PV) industry and technology have achieved impressive successes, with China maintaining its position as the largest PV module manufacturer for several consecutive years and playing a crucial role in advancing global green energy development. China's full-fledged high-speed rail network has garnered admiration, including from former US President Donald Trump, who recently remarked in an interview with CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, that China's high-speed trains "go unbelievably fast, unbelievably comfortable." Moreover, China's digital economy and innovative industries rank among the fastest-growing sectors. Attempts by Western nations to use politically motivated protectionist measures, such as the "overcapacity" claim and "anti-subsidy" probe, to stifle Chinese industries have proven futile.

In terms of trade, the US imposed high tariffs on imports from China, leading to a significant decline in the value of bilateral trade. China fell from being the largest to the third-largest source of imports into the US. Despite this, the proportion of Chinese products in US imports has actually increased from about 20% in 2018 to approximately 25% today. Additionally, the total value of China's exports to the global market continues to rise, up more than 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024.

The US pressures have actually pushed China and its enterprises to work harder to achieve a series of innovations and breakthroughs technologically. China's economy and companies could no longer afford to stay complacent in their previous economic structure, development pace, or role in the global industrial chain and trade. Instead, they were and are driven to innovate and chart new courses, embracing changes despite increased costs, which ultimately reduces their dependence on foreign products and technologies. As American economic strategist David Goldman mentioned in an interview, no matter what challenges are posed to China, they always manage to tackle them and, most of the time, solve them. He really understands what's going on.

In contrast, driven by geopolitical competition, the US government has implemented sweeping measures aimed at containing and suppressing China. Yet, have these efforts made America "great again" or addressed its domestic challenges? Persistent trade imbalances, continuing underemployment, sluggish economic growth, and failure to fully tame inflation, all of these have painted a different picture. The US strategies of decoupling, supply chain disruptions, and blockades against China have failed to improve American people's lives or address their domestic problems. The containment policy toward China is proving to be a double-edged sword, inflicting growing pain on American businesses. Recently, some US Democrats have called on the Biden administration to freeze reported plans to impose fresh restrictions on US technology exports to China, arguing that new restrictions could "send longstanding US companies into a death spiral." The United States' dilemmas are largely of its own making, and engaging in geopolitical competition or damaging others' interests is not a solution.

In China, there's a saying that goes, "Fortunes turn like a wheel." History is ever-changing - there are no permanent winners or losers, only endless possibilities. Today, the US may be "choking" others, but tomorrow it might reap what it sows. For example, China's Chang'e-6 recently returned with lunar soil samples from the far side of the moon, and NASA was eager to collaborate. Yet, the United States' own Wolf Amendment prevented NASA from accessing these samples. Similarly, the US House of Representatives has raised concerns about the import of DJI drones from China. However, even if the US were interested in purchasing these drones, China has already implemented export controls on them. It's not a situation where one side can impose restrictions when it wants or freely import as it pleases. Not long ago, an American scholar even suggested that the US should encourage Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers to invest in the US, with the intention of stealing technology from China. While it was merely one scholar's wild idea, it reflected a shift in America's attitude toward China's progress. I've also heard that an artificial intelligence (AI) team from a prestigious American university was accused of copying a large language model developed by a leading Chinese university. Although it was not a big deal, the incident was quite surprising. Just a few days ago, Mario Draghi, former President of the European Central Bank, issued The Future of European Competitiveness report, warning that Europe now faces an "existential challenge." He called for massive investment to catch up economically with both the US and China. I still remember times when it was China racing to catch up with the US and Europe - now it's Europe trying to catch up with the US and China. How the tables have turned!

We admit that Western countries have led the world in many fields for decades, and even now, China still trails behind in lots of areas. However, the world is constantly evolving, and every nation is making progress. Can any country seriously expect to hold onto dominance in every domain forever? Is it really feasible to stop others from surpassing you? Seeing any country that catches up as a threat and then trying everything to bring it down is a textbook example of hegemonic thinking. In her speech at the Democratic National Convention, US presidential candidate Kamala Harris declared that she would ensure it is the US - not China - that leads the world into the future in areas such as space and AI and wins the competition of the 21st century. It's clear that Harris was trying to rally the American people, but this idea that you must always win while others must lose is short-sighted. Why can't there be success for all? Why does the US insist on being the sole victor? Such a mindset feels narrow. Yet, this is exactly the way the US perceives the world.

To this day, the US continues its misguided approach toward China, constantly devising new ways to suppress our country, and the list of unilateral sanctions goes on and on. The US persistently interferes in China's territorial sovereignty and internal affairs, undermining China's core interests. Recently, the US House of Representatives passed 25 anti-China bills in one week, escalating hostility to new heights and once again pushing Sino-US relations to a precarious point. As the Chinese saying goes, "It's not reasoning that convinces a person, but the hard lessons he or she learns." Perhaps, after repeatedly being taught by hard lessons from the failures of its perceptions, strategies, and policies toward China, the West might finally start to reflect - and possibly gain some insight.

Today's world is intricately interconnected, where everyone's interests got intertwined with the others', thus excluding the interests of one party inevitably harms the other. Suppressing one does not guarantee the other will benefit. Indeed, the world is big enough to accommodate China, the US, Europe, and all other nations. If Western countries could ditch their obsessive interest in geopolitical competition, and instead embrace peaceful coexistence and collaborative development, the world would undoubtedly be a better place.

The above contents only represent the views of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of Taihe Institute.

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太和智库线上英文刊物《太和观察家》(TI Observer)致力于促进中外沟通交流,弥合“理解鸿沟”。


TI Observer (TIO) is an online monthly English publication produced by Taihe Institute. TIO is dedicated to promoting transnational interaction and mutual understanding, thus bridging the gap of misunderstanding and bringing China and the world closer to each other.


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太和智库
2013年,太和智库于北京成立,以“促进文明互鉴,助力和平发展”为使命,为中国发展贡献决策建议,为中外交流提供智力支持。2017年创办太和文明论坛,是“一带一路”国际智库合作委员会及“一带一路”绿色发展国际联盟成员单位。
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