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The Sub-Session on International Relations of the 8th Taihe Civilizations Forum (TCF) was held in Beijing on September 20, 2024. During the event, participants conducted in-depth discussions on the theme "Navigating the Changing International Political and Economic Landscape for Security and Development." Below are the highlighted insights from the speakers.![]()
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Wu Hailong, President of China Public Diplomacy Association: The US geopolitical strategy is designed to forge alliances that strategically contain and suppress China in various sectors. However, this geopolitical rivalry fails to address the domestic challenges that the US itself has created. Additionally, it is unrealistic for the US to maintain dominance indefinitely in every sector. The US approach of economic and technological "decoupling" has not only been ineffective at curbing China's growth but has also spurred China's independent technological innovation. The United States' impulsive actions regarding China's territorial sovereignty and internal affairs risk plunging Sino-US relations into peril once again. Repeatedly facing the failures of its perceptions, strategies, and policies toward China, the West might eventually reflect and reconsider. If Western nations could set aside their fixation on geopolitical competition and embrace peaceful coexistence and collaborative development with other countries, the world would undoubtedly be a better place.![]()
Nurlan Yermekbayev, Deputy Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): The SCO's significant achievements are rooted in its steadfast commitment to the "Shanghai Spirit," which upholds mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for diverse civilizations, and pursuit of common development. This spirit serves as the foundation for a new type of international relations. As the SCO enters its third decade, it has become an essential platform for enhancing neighborly trust, expanding multilateral dialogue, and deepening mutually beneficial cooperation. It has evolved into an authoritative multilateral entity in the contemporary international relations system. Amid complex geopolitical challenges, the SCO plays a crucial role in maintaining global and regional security and stability. While the world evolves and the SCO adapts, the "Shanghai Spirit" remains unchanged. Committed to collaboration with the global community, the SCO strives to foster a more equitable and sound international order.![]()
Liu Zhenmin, China's Special Envoy for Climate Change: Global economic fragmentation is escalating. Key shipping routes are obstructed, and "decoupling" and "de-risking" strategies disrupt global production and supply chains and normal economic cooperation. The West's sanctions against Russia, along with green trade barriers set up by the US and the EU, are exacerbating these issues. Despite these challenges, economic globalization remains resilient and vibrant. The unified global market and international trade system are robust against the actions of individual countries. Regional economic integration also plays a critical role in sustaining economic globalization. Current geopolitical conflicts will not alter the strategic balance among China, the US, and the EU in the global industrial chain. These major economies will continue to develop their respective regional industrial chains across East Asia, North America, and Central and Western Europe, enhancing economic growth opportunities in these regions.![]()
Siyabonga Cyprian Cwele, Ambassador of the Republic of South Africa to China: Tensions between countries, particularly among the permanent members of the UN Security Council, have weakened the global community's capacity to jointly tackle shared challenges. The United Nations needs to undergo modernization and reforms to better reflect the current geopolitical realities and take into full account the concerns of all nations, with a special focus on the needs of developing countries. It's crucial to reject unilateralism, and strengthen multilateralism and collaborative solutions instead. Emphasizing inclusive development and effectively responding to global challenges must be a top priority.![]()
Zhou Li, former Vice Minister of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee: The current international landscape is marked by volatility, with political disputes and military conflicts erupting across various regions. The arms race between the US and Russia, along with their mutual nuclear deterrence, has reached its pinnacle since the end of the Cold War, posing a significant threat to global peace. Meanwhile, the solidarity among developing countries has grown stronger, with an increasing focus on collective action to defend their rights and extend their influence. Despite these developments, US hegemony continues to dominate globally, and its antagonistic strategies toward China and Russia remain unchanged, regardless of who will be the next president of the US. This approach has further heightened the tensions between multi-polarity and uni-polarity.
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Chen Wenling, Chief Economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges: The next decade will be pivotal in shaping the trends of human society. It will also feature the most intense competition between China and the US, marking a period of uncertainty, instability, and unpredictability in the world economy. Six significant changes are expected to characterize this period. First, the Global South will rise collectively, becoming the main engine of global economic growth and transforming the North-South dynamic. Second, the international monetary system will undergo structural changes, challenging the dominance of the US dollar. Third, the Western strategy of "decoupling" may compel China to stage a significant technological revolution, potentially closing our development gap with the West. Fourth, the global production and supply chain structure will evolve from a tri-polar system encompassing East Asia, the EU, and North America to a bi-polar configuration between East Asia and North America. Fifth, a major shift in the global energy landscape will occur, with the hub of energy trade moving from the Atlantic to the Pacific, accompanied by an increased share of renewable energy sources. Sixth, the US-dominated global governance system formed after World War II is being abandoned by the US itself, giving rise to a more extensive, diverse, and multidimensional global governance system that aligns with the evolution of global civilizations.
II. Panel Discussion: Navigating International Geopolitical Challenges
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Su Xiaohui, Deputy Director of the Department for American Studies of China Institute of International Studies: Both China and the US place great importance on the Asia-Pacific, yet there is a fundamental difference in their perceptions. For China, "Asia-Pacific" is a geographic term. Regardless of how much China develops, it will remain rooted in, build up, and benefit the Asia-Pacific region. In contrast, the US views the "Indo-Pacific" through a geopolitical lens, primarily to advance strategic competition with China. Recently, the US has been pushing its "Indo-Pacific Strategy" with three notable characteristics: first, the shift from competition in "gray zones" to readiness for actual combat; second, an increased emphasis on coast guard operations to strengthen its presence in waters surrounding China; third, greater connection among allies through new initiatives such as the "Indo-Pacific" undersea cable projects and the second pillar of AUKUS. This geopolitical maneuvering by the US not only undermines the strategic balance between China and the US but also increases the risk of accidental confrontations and loss of control in their relations.![]()
Wu Bingbing, Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Peking University: Global and regional powers are engaged in intense cross-sectoral geopolitical competition in the Middle East. In the security domain, the US and Iran agree on avoiding war in the region, yet Israel seeks to escalate conflicts. Economically, Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are striving to collaborate internationally to diversify their economies, while the US, considering its alliance system in the Middle East, hopes that these Gulf countries will strengthen cooperation with Israel. In terms of connectivity, there is notable competition among several initiatives: the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) launched by the US, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) promoted by Russia, and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) driven by Türkiye.![]()
Arnold Howitt, Distinguished Visiting Professor of Schwarzman College at Tsinghua University and Faculty Co-Director of the Program on Crisis Leadership at the John F. Kennedy School of Government of Harvard University: Over the past two decades, countries worldwide have significantly improved their disaster preparedness and response to extreme events, thereby enhancing their national emergency response systems. However, even major powers are not equipped to independently manage emergencies that cross national boundaries, have a larger-than-expected scale, or require specialized knowledge or technology. Consequently, there is a critical need to strengthen international cooperation and assistance mechanisms to more effectively respond to extreme events.![]()
Pravin Sawhney, Editor-in-Chief of Indian Magazine FORCE: As China rises and the US re-engages in the Asia-Pacific, the global geopolitical center is shifting toward the Asia-Pacific region. This trend is expected to significantly impact India and the Southeast Asia over the next three to four years. Currently, the world's multi-polarity is exhibited in two regions: on one side are the Western nations led by the US, which make up 20% of the world's population and advocate for a "rules-based international order"; on the other side are the Global South countries, which lack a defined leader but receive support from China and Russia. The Global South constitutes 80% of the world's population and champions the development of partnerships. As emerging technologies continue to evolve rapidly, both China and the US are leveraging their respective strengths. The countries of the Global South are closely monitoring China's transformation. As new quality productive forces emerge, they are likely to enhance the development of the Belt and Road Initiative.![]()
Wang Wen, Executive Dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China: The US hegemony has all but crumbled, which is to be proved by one defining event. The appeal of the US political system has waned, and should Trump lose in the upcoming election, we could likely see a crisis even more severe than the attack on the US Capitol building on January 6, 2021. The US economic and technological dominance is faltering, and its trade and technology wars against China and sanctions against Russia have proved unsuccessful. Now, what remains is the teetering hegemony of the US dollar, which is poised to collapse. The decline of the US hegemony doesn't spell the end of the US but reduces it to a regional power whose influence is confined to the North Atlantic. The world after the US hegemony is fraught with uncertainties; for example, it remains to be seen whether the US might, in desperation, initiate another "proxy war" in the Western Pacific following that in Ukraine.![]()
III. Panel Discussion: Global Economic Security and Cooperation
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Ding Yifan, Senior Fellow of Taihe Institute, and former Vice-Director of World Development Institute of Development Research Center of the State Council: De-globalization has dealt a significant blow to the global economy and could potentially introduce geopolitical risks. Firstly, despite their own economic vulnerabilities, the US and other Western nations persist in approaching problems through the lens of great power rivalry and competition. This mirrors the period before World War I, when geopolitical maneuvers overshadowed collaborative economic efforts. Secondly, aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely to devalue the US dollar, potentially triggering more financial bubbles and driving other economies into severe boom-and-bust cycles. Thirdly, while US and Western policies of "decoupling" and "de-risking" have relocated significant portions of China's industrial chain to Southeast Asia and Latin America, future US administrations may pressure these regions to reduce their dependence on China within their supply chains directed toward the US. It is foreseeable that even if the US were to tightly integrate the waning economies of Japan and Europe into its economic strategies, this is unlikely to stave off its own economic decline. In contrast, China is actively helping more Global South countries emerge as significant economic players. This marks an increasingly pronounced shift in the global economic landscape toward the rise of the Global South.![]()
Vasilis Trigkas, Visiting Assistant Professor of Schwarzman College at Tsinghua University and Member of the Council of International Relations, Greece: The US is increasingly focusing on "economic security," not only raising the "high walls" of its "small yard" but also expanding the "yard" itself. For example, the US has initiated a Section 301 investigation targeting China's shipbuilding industry, but the assertion that "Chinese shipyards pose a threat to the US Navy and national security" is baseless. China remains constrained by the First Island Chain. Furthermore, maritime transport and shipbuilding are considered global public goods. Should China's shipbuilding capabilities be restricted, the increased costs would immediately impact global consumers, further exacerbating the already severe inflation issues.![]()
Wang Yongli, Senior Fellow of Taihe Institute, former Vice President of the Bank of China, and General Manager of China International Futures Co., Ltd.: As the US and the EU increasingly utilize SWIFT for sanctions against other nations, there's an urgent need for significant reforms in the international payment and settlement system. There are three potential solutions: First, a thorough overhaul of the SWIFT governance system to truly restore its neutrality, security, fairness, and justice, though this proves to be a considerable challenge; second, the creation of a completely neutral, professional, secure, and efficient global interbank payment telecommunication organization, similar to SWIFT. While technically feasible, it's crucial to prevent a few countries from controlling this new organization; third, the adoption of digital currency technology to develop a new cross-border payment and settlement system.![]()
Sun Xiansheng, Chairman of Council of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS) and the 4th Secretary-General of International Energy Forum: The Russia-Ukraine conflict, compounded by climate change and the ongoing energy transition, has significantly impacted the global energy landscape. On the one hand, oil and gas still dominate global power supplies, but the geopolitics of energy has seen disruptive shifts. Since the Russia-Ukraine war began, energy cooperation between Europe and Russia has collapsed, which has spurred rapid growth in the US oil and gas industries due to their strengthened energy security cooperation with Europe. Meanwhile, Russia has been compelled to shift its energy trade focus toward the East. On the other hand, as climate change issues become more pressing amid growing pressure to ensure energy security, governments worldwide are intensifying their efforts to promote a transition to green energy. China has evolved from an active participant to a major contributor in global energy markets. Nevertheless, addressing climate change and advancing energy transition still require greater international cooperation.![]()
Thorsten Jelinek, Senior Fellow of Taihe Institute and Director of Taihe Institute Europe Center: The EU is at a crucial crossroads, with climate action being one of its pivotal challenges. The outlook is not optimistic, yet valuable lessons can be drawn from Germany's experiences during World War I. If Germany had sustained its diplomatic efforts, chosen its allies strategically, limited the arms race, curtailed imperial ambitions, managed crises more effectively, and favored cooperation over competition in key industries, it might have avoided the war. It's important to remember that the word "profit" means "to progress" or "to be useful," with financial gain carrying less importance. As human beings, we always share something and owe each other. Profit will come only when the real problems are solved.![]()
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