hello大家好！有人说:海关每年见到的邪门生物，可能比你同桌平生看过的cult片还多。
昆明海关截获检疫性有害生物红棕象甲
（图片来源：不相及研究所，侵删）
如果没有过硬的心理素质，在看到这些无比接近异形胚胎的生物时，恐怕当场就会吓瘫。而遇到的邪门生物，足以刷新一个生物学博士的认知上限，扁鹊来了也会开了天眼，《山海经》都不敢这么画。金陵海关查获的活体捕螳传奇螽斯
（图片来源：不相及研究所，侵删）
天津东疆海关查获的活体寇蛛属蜘蛛，俗称“黑寡妇”，毒性是响尾蛇的15倍（图片来源：不相及研究所，侵删）
（图片来源：不相及研究所，侵删）
这些奇怪生物给我们带来的视觉刺激，不亚于深夜独自在坟头蹦迪，却意外发现碑上刻的是同桌最喜欢的演员，它们凶恶的长相，很让人怀疑是不是欠了造物主的房租，有些甚至光听名字，就知道它们在道上混得有多野。
“食人蚁、黄金鬼锹、黑腹果蝇”，无论哪一个单独揪出来，都能作为精灵宝可梦下一赛季的新BOSS。它们在自然界几乎没有任何天敌，能陪同脆弱的人类一同进化至今，本身就说明了它们在食物链顶层的事实。从特殊的黑足雪貂到可以抵御变暖水域的珊瑚，现在利用基因组学和合成生物学的基因拯救工作正在帮助大自然蓬勃发展。但是，尽管这种干预取得了巨大的成功，保护创新者瑞安·费兰 (Ryan Phelan) 指出，对意外后果的恐惧往往会扼杀创新——有进一步灭绝的风险。因此，她提出了接受基因工具的“预期后果”的理由，这些工具有能力恢复地球的平衡、丰富度和生物多样性。演讲题目: The intended consequences of helping nature thriveMeet Elizabeth Ann. She's a black-footed ferret, America's most endangered animal. She was cloned using cells from a ferret that lived 33 years ago. Elizabeth Ann is a new hope for the future of her species, a chance to actually restore lost genetic diversity. She was born for this intended consequence.来认识一下伊丽莎白·安。她是一只黑足雪貂，是美国最濒危的动物。她是用一只生活在33年前的雪貂身上的细胞克隆的。伊丽莎白·安是这个物种未来的新希望，也给遗传多样性的真正恢复提供了可能性。她就是为此而生的。I've been working in conservation for the last 10 years with innovative scientists from around the world to bring biotechnology to wildlife conservation. We need to solve the escalating threats to biodiversity from climate change, habitat loss, fragmented populations and wildlife diseases. These are the unintended consequences of the human-dominated time we live in. A time when we need new tools for the conservation toolbox and with genetic rescue, we can actually help stop more species from crossing the line into extinction. And the black-footed ferret is a great example.在过去的10年里，我一直从事生态保护工作，与来自世界各地的创新科学家一起将生物技术应用于野生动植物保护。我们要解决不断升级的威胁，从气候变化到生物多样性，再到栖息地丧失、种群分散和野生动植物疾病。这些都是未曾预料的后果，就发生在我们人类主导的时代。生态保护需要新的手段，使用基因拯救技术，我们可以帮助更多物种免于灭绝。黑足雪貂就是一个很好的例子。The black footed-ferret historically ranged all across the Great Plains of North America, from Canada to Mexico. That is, until their habitat was converted to ranches and farmland. By 1981, there was only one colony of ferrets living in Wyoming. They were brought into captivity, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service has successfully been breeding and releasing these individuals back into the wild for the last 30 years.黑足雪貂的足迹曾经遍布整个北美大平原，从加拿大一直到墨西哥。直到后来，他们的栖息地 变成了牧场和农田。到1981年，整个怀俄明州只剩下一个雪貂群。它们被人工圈养起来，美国鱼类及野生动植物管理局在过去的30年里，将它们成功繁殖并放归野外。主打院线级抗衰护肤的科鉴品牌官方直播
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But all 600 living ferrets today are the descendants of just seven ancestors. And with inbreeding that jeopardizes their long-term survival in the wild. To solve this challenge of a lack of genetic variation, we reached back in time. Luckily, scientists had the foresight. Starting in 1975, Dr. Oliver Ryder and his team at the San Diego Zoo started banking endangered species, and it was with one of these cell lines that we were able to actually bring in a new individual who lived 33 years ago, who had unique genetic variation.但所有600只现存的雪貂都来自共同的七个祖先。近亲繁殖不利于它们在野外的长期生存。为了解决缺乏遗传变异的难题，我们追溯到了过去。幸运的是，科学家们早有远见。从1975年开始，奥利弗·赖德博士和他在圣地亚哥动物园的团队就开始储存濒危物种（基因），正是利用这些细胞系，我们才能真正引入一个新个体，生活在33年前，拥有独特遗传变异的个体。Elizabeth Ann is a result of that cloning. She has three times more genetic variation than any living ferret today. And when she breeds in the next couple of years, her offspring will help create greater resilience for her species.伊丽莎白·安就是这次克隆的结果。她具有的遗传变异性是其他任何现存雪貂的三倍。当她在接下来几年里繁殖时，她的后代将有助于为该物种创造更强的适应力。Now Elizabeth Ann isn't the only time that we've done cloning. We’ve worked with the Przewalski’s horses. These are the only true species of wild horse remaining in the world. Historically, they were native to Central Asia, but they roamed all the way from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean for centuries. Until they were basically extinct in the wild, with only several horses left in captivity. Conservationists have reintroduced some of those horses since 1960, back into the wild. But all 2,000 horses all living today are again at risk of inbreeding. And many scientists refer to this challenge as the extinction vortex, when small, fragmented populations lose genetic variation and become at risk for the vortex of extinction as their populations dwindle.伊丽莎白·安并不是人类实现克隆的唯一案例。我们已将其应用在普氏野马身上。它们是世界上仅存的真正的野马种类。普氏野马原产于中亚，但几个世纪以来，它们从太平洋沿岸一路漫游 直至大西洋沿岸。直到它们在野外基本灭绝，只剩下寥寥几匹被人工圈养。自1960年以来，环保主义者已将其中一些马重新放归野外。但是现存的2,000匹马再次面临近亲繁殖的危机。许多科学家把这种情况称为灭绝漩涡，微小而分散的种群失去遗传变异，随着种群数量减少，就会面临灭绝漩涡的危机。Now, with genetic rescue, we can reverse this extinction vortex by bringing a new genetic variation and increasing the long-term survival of these populations. And that’s exactly what we did with this Przewalski’s foal named Kurt. That's actually his surrogate mother to the right. She's an American Quarter Horse, a different species. But Kurt's genome is all wild horse. Now, here's Kurt, exactly one year later, this August. He's a wild, healthy, vibrant Przewalski's horse.现在有了基因拯救技术，我们就可以扭转这种灭绝漩涡，通过增加新的遗传变异以及提高这些种群的长期存活率。这正是我们对这只名为库尔特的小普氏野马所做的事。画面右边是他的代孕妈妈。她是一匹美国夸特马，与库尔特的物种并不相同。但库尔特的基因组都是野马基因。这是库尔特，在这之后一年，这是今年八月的照片。他是一匹野性、健康、充满活力的普氏野马。Now, these genetic rescue stories could not have happened without the collaboration of multiple partners and the tools of biotechnology. Fundamental to all of this is the most essential tool, is genomic sequencing and the power of bringing that information into the light to help the management of these species. In addition, the bio banking, the cell culturing and the in vitro technologies have made this kind of genetic rescue possible. But even these technologies are not widely adopted by conservation. We hope to change that.这些基因拯救故事本可能不会发生，幸亏有许多合作伙伴的帮助，以及生物技术工具。所有这一切的基础和最重要的工具，就是基因组测序，以及相关技术信息的公开，都有助于更好地保护这些物种。此外，生物银行、细胞培养和体外技术都使基因拯救计划变得可行。但即使是这些技术也没有被环保组织广泛采用。我们希望改变这样的状况。Emerging technologies of genetic engineering hold the promise of helping species adapt to climate change, solve wildlife disease problems, and even help solve invasive species problems. But very often these technologies never get out of the starting gate because the fear of unintended consequences absolutely stymies even the most basic innovation at the get-go.新兴的基因工程技术有望帮助物种适应气候变化，解决野生动植物疾病问题，甚至有助于解决入侵物种问题。但很多时候，这些技术连起点都迈不出，因为对意外后果的恐惧毫无疑问会阻碍创新，哪怕是最基础的技术创新。Probably there's no more urgent need to overcome some of this reluctance to use these technologies than in the case of coral. Coral, as many of you know, are the most diverse and rich ecosystems in the world. They provide a rich biodiversity for reef-dwelling fish and all ocean life. And yet, sadly, 50 percent of the Great Barrier Reef has been lost already to climate change and environmental degradation. Estimates predicts that by 2050, we could lose as much as 90 percent of the coral in the world.我们在某些领域迫切需要克服拒绝这些技术的想法，特别是在珊瑚保护的领域。珊瑚，正如你们许多人所知，是世界上最多样化的生态系统。它们提供了丰富的生物多样性，造福礁栖鱼类和所有海洋生物。然而，可悲的是，大堡礁的50%已经消失，原因是气候变化和环境衰退。据估计，到2050年，我们可能会失去世界上多达90%的珊瑚。There is hope. Scientists around the world are utilizing new technologies to cryopreserve even living coral fragments that can be transplanted onto artificial reefs. This is just the beginning of some of the work that is pioneering and can happen. I'm most excited about the use of the new technologies for developing stem cells. Now these stem cells could be used to actually genome edit in thermal resilience to warming oceans.但希望还在。世界各地的科学家正在利用新技术冷冻保存活珊瑚碎片，这些碎片可以移植到人工鱼礁上。这只是开始着手做一些具备可行性和开创性的工作。最令我感到兴奋的是开发干细胞新技术的使用。现在，这些干细胞可用于对海洋变暖的热弹性进行真正的基因组编辑。Now, you may be looking at that and saying, "Genetically modified corals? What about the unintended consequences?" This question comes up so often with any innovation in science, we decided to actually identify just how often, when humans intervene, did they cause the disasters that people fear so much. And yes, your classic stories of humans intervening in nature and causing disasters, like bringing rodents to islands, that stowed away on colonial sailing ships. These invasive species and others have caused greater than 60 percent of the extinctions worldwide since the early 1500s.
现在，你可能会看着它说，“转基因珊瑚？之前说的可能意外后果呢？”这个问题经常出现在科学创新中，因此我们决定实际探究一下，当人类干预自然活动时，是否经常造成令人类恐惧的灾难后果。是的，你可能听过许多人类干预自然并造成灾难的经典故事，比如啮齿动物藏在殖民帆船里并被带到岛屿上的故事。自1500年代初以来，包括入侵物种在内的诸多因素已导致全球60%以上的物种灭绝。And then there's the poster child for intentionally releasing the poisonous cane toad to Australia. Back in 1935, the sugar cane industry brought this invasive, poisonous cane toad in to solve their problem with beetles in their crops. It didn't do much for the beetles, and instead, since 1935, it has continued to work its way across Australia, leaving nothing in its wake and killing native species all along the way.典型代表是澳大利亚引入有毒甘蔗蟾蜍。回到1935年，甘蔗行业引入了这种入侵性的有毒甘蔗蟾蜍，为的是解决他们庄稼上的甲虫问题。它对甲虫没有产生太大作用，反而自1935年以来，它持续在澳大利亚各地活动，所过之地寸草不留，一路杀死本地物种。These disasters stoke the minds of people about fear of intervention, and yet they happened in an era when there was little regard for the overall environmental ecosystem. And they were done, in some cases, even with profit motivation in mind, they weren't done for conservation benefit. And sadly, we never hear about the success stories. So when we looked at the research about what happens when conservation intend to intervene in nature, we found a very different story. All across the globe, for over a century, scientists have been introducing and reintroducing plants and animals with no environmental harm.这些灾难激起了人们对干预自然的恐惧，但它们发生的年代，几乎没有对整体环境生态系统的关注。在某些故事中，人类干预可能实现了预期，但那也是从利润动机去考虑，并不是出于保护自然的目的。可悲的是，我们从未听说过成功的故事。因此，当我们关注相关研究，想弄清环保行动干预自然时会发生什么时，我们发现了一个完全不同的故事。在全球范围内，一个多世纪以来，科学家们一直在引入和引回对环境无害的植物和动物。You may know the classic success story of introducing wolves to Yellowstone. But that's not the only one. Think about this. Over 1,000 species have been introduced all across North America for the last 125 years. There has been no documented case, except one, of any intervention causing a local extinction. That was a native freshwater fish from a small spring in Alabama. Ninety-nine percent of these interventions have succeeded in achieving their intended consequence.你可能知道其中的成功典型：将狼引入黄石公园的故事。但这并不是唯一的成功案例。了解一下这个。在过去的125年里，超过1,000个物种被引入北美。而仅有一次记录在案的个例，显示干预导致了局部灭绝。那次失败祸及了阿拉巴马州一个小泉的原生淡水鱼。但99%的干预措施已成功实现其预期结果。So you may look at this and wonder, if intervention is so common in nature, why aren't we more aware of this? And I think it's because sometimes success is actually invisible to us. Take, for example, this image of the Great Smoky Mountains, America's most visited national park. What we see as pristine wilderness is actually a very managed environment. Those elk you see, they're the result of being absent for 200 years and being reintroduced. That meadow is a result of repeated controlled burns. And non-native insects have been used to control pathogens and invasive pests.你看到这里可能会纳闷，如果干预在自然界中如此普遍，为什么我们没有意识到这一点？我认为这是因为有时候成功在我们见不到的地方。以这张大雾山的图片为例，它是美国访问量最大的国家公园。我们所看到的原始荒野实际上是一个高度治理下的环境。你看到的那些麋鹿，它们是消失200年后又被重新引入的结果。那片草地是反复受控燃烧的结果。外来昆虫已被用于控制病原体和入侵性害虫。And there's one more iconic species that could come back to this forest. That's the American chestnut tree. Historically, this majestic tree rained down sweet nuts and fed humans and animals alike for centuries. For thousands of years, it was the most abundant tree species across the eastern deciduous forest. It's lumber was used to create fine musical instruments and hardwood furniture. And until 1800, there were four billion of these trees across the forest until blight, a fungal blight that came in, imported, invasive species, absolutely wiped out these trees. By 1950, all four billion trees were decimated.还有一种标志性的物种可能会回到这片森林。那就是美国栗树。这个雄伟的树种在几个世纪以来不断地洒下甜美的坚果，为人类和动物提供食物。千百年来，它曾是东部落叶林中数量最多的树种。它的木材被用来制作精美的乐器和硬木家具。直到1800年，森林中还有40亿棵栗树存活。后来一种真菌枯萎病开始蔓延，病原体是入侵物种，彻底消灭了这些树木。到1950年，40亿棵树全部毁灭了。Now, since that time, scientists have tried for decades to figure out how to create a blight-resistant chestnut tree. And it's happened. Scientists at the State University of New York have identified a way inserting a single gene from wheat that will convey blight resistance. These genetically modified trees right now are the first chance in 100 years to restore these majestic trees to the forest. The US Department of Agriculture right now is reviewing these trees for release into the wild.从那时起，科学家们几十年来一直试图创造一种抗枯萎病的栗树。然后真的成功了。纽约州立大学的科学家们已经找到了一种方法：插入从小麦中提取的，能够表达抗枯病性的基因。现在，这些转基因树木是近100年来的第一次转机，能够让这些雄伟的树木重现森林。美国农业部目前正在审查这些树木，以便让它们重现野外。These are all bold initiatives. Engineering coral to withstand warming waters, restoring the American chestnut tree, the genetic rescue of the black-footed ferret. All of these initiatives will require public engagement and public support. I think it matters how people think about intervention. I believe we need to bring more balance to how we think about risk. There will always be unexpected outcomes to any innovation in science, but we have the tools and technology today and the protocols to minimize risks and maximize benefits.这些都是很大胆的举措。改造珊瑚以抵御变暖的海水，重现美洲栗树，以及黑足雪貂的基因拯救计划。这些举措都需要公众参与和支持。我认为人们如何看待干预很重要。在如何看待风险问题上，我相信我们需要找到更好的平衡点。科学创新总会有意外结果，但我们有现代工具和技术，以及相关协议，可以实现风险最小化，收益最大化。So the next time you hear about some bold new idea, I hope you'll think first about the intended consequences. We don't have the luxury of time to stand by and wait and see what happens for the thousands of plants and animals at risk today. We know that doing nothing can cause extinction. Instead, let's carefully and intentionally plan with all the tools in the toolbox to achieve and create the future we want and not overreact to a future that we fear.所以下次听到 一些大胆的新想法时，希望你先考虑下预期的后果。我们没有富裕时间置身事外，冷眼旁观面临风险的成千上万动植物的未来走向。我们冷眼旁观，它们就会灭绝。相反，我们要认真专程地制定计划，充分利用人类的智慧结晶，实现和创造我们预期的未来，而不是对未来的过度恐惧。Chris Anderson: Please stay. I think this is so interesting. It seems to me, at the heart of what you're wrestling with each time is this, you know, it's a moral question. So most moral philosophers, I think, would say that fundamentally, there's not a difference between intentional action and intentional inaction that leads to the same thing. So why is it that in so many areas of public policy and certainly in the environmental movement, there is this huge distinction that people make between action and inaction? They would rather not act and see something go wrong than take the risk of acting. Why?克里斯·安德森：请等一下。我觉得这太有意思了。在我看来，你每次论证的核心都是一个道德问题。所以我认为，大多数道德哲学家会说，从根本上说，有意的作为和有意不作为并没有区别，只要它们产生的结果是相同的，那么为什么在如此多的公共政策领域，当然，我是指环保活动领域，人们会在行动与否之间如此泾渭分明呢？他们选择不采取行动，哪怕出现问题，也不愿冒采取行动的风险。这其中的原因是什么？Ryan Phelan: You know, I think it's public pressure that they feel as scientists innovating. They don't want to get it wrong. They have funders that challenged them on taking on innovation and action. They run the risk of losing jobs, funding, security, public shame. It's so much easier for people to stand by and do nothing and not take ownership of it. And I think this is really what we're trying to say, is if we can encourage scientists and innovators to be bold, it will behoove all of us.瑞恩·费伦：我认为，他们是感受到了公众压力，以科学家身份创新的压力，他们不想犯错。资助方也阻碍了他们的创新行动。他们要创新，就必须冒失败的风险：失去工作、资助、安全，遭受公众耻辱。袖手旁观就容易得多，什么都不做，不扛起任何责任。我认为我们要提倡这一点：如果能鼓励科学家和创新者胆子大一点，我们所有人都应该去鼓励他们。CA: Right. So one advantage of inaction is just that you're less likely to be blamed.克里斯·安德森：是的。因此，不作为的好处之一就是你不太可能会被指责。RP: Exactly. You don't get credit either.CA: No. Ryan, these same technologies, synthetic biology and so forth, like in principle, they allow actual de-extinction, species that the planet hasn't seen for years, in principle, we could bring back. Are there any projects you're involved with that excite you or possibly terrify you, where we could see such de-extinction taking place?克里斯·安德森：对。瑞恩，这些相同的技术、合成生物学等等，好像原则上，它们能实现真正的复活，比如地球上多年未见的物种，原则上，我们可以让它们重现。你参与的项目中，有没有让你兴奋或恐惧的项目，其中就包含了这样的复活计划？RP: Well, technically the American chestnut tree is almost extinct. You know, people will see some sprouts come up because the roots are there, but they basically, you know, fail within 15 years. So they're not totally extinct, but they're very close to it. You know, we are working on everything from the woolly mammoth, as some of you may know, to the passenger pigeon. But to me, the most motivating part of these technologies is, de-extinction is just a big, hairy, audacious goal. And if we get there, it'll be grand. But getting there, all of these genetic rescue tools and technology can be applied to save endangered species. It's all a fundamental tool kit. It's essential.瑞恩·费伦：从技术上讲，美国栗树几乎就灭绝了。人们可能会看到一些新芽长出来，因为那里还有根，但它们基本上在15年就不会再长了。所以他们没有完全灭绝，但也很接近灭绝了。我们研究很多生物，你们中的一些人可能知道，大到猛犸象，小到旅鸽。但这些技术中最让我有动力的是，已灭绝生物的复活只是一个宏大的、模糊的、大胆的目标。如果我们成功了，会很伟大。但成功之前，所有这些基因拯救工具和技术都可以用于拯救濒危物种。这些技术就是基础工具包。不可或缺。CA: Well, Ryan, you're an extremely compelling and persuasive and trustworthy voice, I would say. So thank you so much for the work you're doing and for sharing this.克里斯·安德森：瑞恩，我想说，你所述内容非常有说服力，非常值得信赖。非常感谢你们所做的工作，以及与我们的分享。![]()
