hello大家好！mu5735飞机的失事，让我们许多人都陷入一种悲痛中，事故的发生有各种各样的原因，或许是机器故障、或许是操作失误、也或许是其他原因，我们静等实情公布。空难中，包括乘客还有机组人员在内，共有112人全部遇难。通过调查，并经周密推理，认定“5·7”空难是一起由于乘客张丕林纵火造成的破坏事件。在“5·7”空难罹难的103名乘客中，只有44名乘客购买了航空旅客人身意外伤害保险，其中有一人购买了7份，一份是20万，赔偿金额一共140万，这人就是张丕林。由于家中欠下巨额债款，张丕林便想到，或许可以以“骗保” 的方式，一举解决所有的麻烦。空难发生后，张丕林的受益人马上就到保险公司要求理赔，但是通过简单的调查，保险公司发现：张丕林买的保险份数偏多，而最先起火的部位就在张的附近，所以保险公司坚持要等调查结果出来才赔付。空难事故原因查清后，法院认为，《保险法》规定，被保险人张丕林故意犯罪导致其自身死亡的，因此保险人不承担给付保险金的责任。一家人的债务，最后演变成近百个家庭的支离破碎，着实可恨！
自保险的概念面世以来，原本被用作为风险买单的核心价值，现渐渐被营销以及各种心理所扭曲。
除了骗保这种极少数的恶劣行径，大多数人买保险，不是为一个根本不想体验的事情付费，就是为一个没法立马得到好处的事情付费。或许，违背人性才是保险根本的价值所在，因为这样才能帮助我们克服我们的弱点，保险让我们更加理智、从容的面对未来。
保险就是个“实在人”，直击人生 的生老病死残，帮助我们解决我们不愿提及又无可奈何的事情。今天行为心理学家 Orit Tykocinski 就跟我们探讨了保险与“神奇思维”的扭曲现实风险之间的联系，一起来看看~演讲题目：The counterintuitive psychology of insurance![]()
Hello, everyone. My name is Orit, yes. And I study insurance.Telling people that you study insurance is not a good way to start a conversation. In fact, if ever you need to end the conversation, try it, tell people you study insurance. People don't want to talk about insurance. They don't think it's all that exciting. But I disagree. I find insurance fascinating; in fact, I find it magical. And today, I'd like to show you why.告诉别人你研究过保险并不是一个好的谈话方式。事实上，如果你想做话题终结者，试试看，告诉别人你在研究保险。人们不想谈论保险。他们认为这没那么令人兴奋。但我不同意。我觉得保险很吸引人；事实上，我觉得它很神奇。今天，我想告诉你们为什么。Now, the famous author Franz Kafka used to work for an insurance company in Prague. And this is what Kafka had to say about insurance. He said, "Insurance is like a religion. Insurance is like a primitive religion. It's the religion of people who believe that by having insurance, they can ward off evil."
现在，著名作家弗兰兹·卡夫卡曾在布拉格的一家保险公司工作。这就是卡夫卡对保险的看法。他说：“保险就像一种宗教。保险就像一种原始宗教。它是人们的宗教，他们相信通过保险，他们可以抵御邪恶。”So according to Kafka, what leads us to buy insurance is not rational thinking, but magical thinking. It's the belief that if I have insurance, somehow, magically, those negative events that I fear in the future, they're not going to happen. Of course, this is totally irrational. It's like believing that if you have an umbrella, it's not going to rain. 因此，卡夫卡认为，导致我们购买保险的不是理性思维，而是神奇的思维。这是一种信念，如果我有保险，不知何故，神奇地，那些我害怕在未来发生的负面事件，它们就不会发生。当然，这是完全不合理的。这就像相信如果你有伞，就不会下雨。If your car gets stolen, yes, the insurance company will cushion the blow. With the compensation money, you could probably afford a new car. But the fact that you have insurance does not make your car less likely to be stolen. The risk is the same whether you are insured or not.如果你的车被偷了，保险公司会减轻损失。有了补偿金，你可能买得起一辆新车。但你有保险这一事实并不能降低你的汽车被盗的可能性。无论你是否投保，风险都是一样的。So are people this naive? Do they really believe that if they have insurance, they are less at risk? Yes. Perhaps not consciously, but they do. Let me show you.那么人们有这么天真吗？他们真的相信如果他们有保险，他们的风险会更小吗？对也许没有意识到，但他们确实意识到了。让我给你看看。In one of my studies, I asked people to predict what is the likelihood that in the future they will suffer all kinds of medical misfortunes, yhat they will need an operation, physiotherapy or nursing care. Another group was asked to make the same predictions, but we first asked them, "Do you have health insurance?" 在我的一项研究中，我要求人们预测未来他们遭受各种医疗灾难的可能性，即他们需要手术、物理治疗或护理。另一组被要求做出同样的预测，但我们首先问他们，“你有医疗保险吗？”And of course they do. Israel has universal coverage. Reminding people that they have health insurance had a fascinating effect. It made them feel less at risk. Surprisingly, the effect was not limited to medical problems. It also made them believe that they are less likely to lose money, and my personal favorite, asking people in Tel Aviv if they have health insurance made the prospect of a war in Europe seem less likely.当然了。以色列实行全民覆盖。提醒人们他们有健康保险有一个神奇的效果。这让他们感觉风险更小。令人惊讶的是，这种影响不仅限于医疗问题。这也让他们相信他们不太可能赔钱，而我个人最喜欢的是，询问特拉维夫的人们是否有医疗保险，这让欧洲爆发战争的可能性似乎降低了。And that's magic. Kafka was right. There is an interesting paradox here. We buy insurance against those events that we fear the most. But once we are armed with this protection measure, we feel that we are no longer at risk somehow, magically. And this protection effect is not unique to insurance policies. We see it with other protection measures as well. Let me show you. In 2012, the citizens of Israel were very worried about a possible military attack by Iran. 这就魔幻的地方。卡夫卡是对的。这里有一个有趣的悖论。我们为那些我们最害怕的事件购买保险。但一旦我们掌握了这一保护措施，我们就会觉得自己不再处于危险之中，不知何故，奇迹般地。而且这种保护效果并不是保险单所独有的。我们在其他保护措施中也看到了这一点。让我给你看看。2012年，以色列公民非常担心伊朗可能发动军事袭击。And the government was distributing gas masks to all the citizens. At the time, we called people and asked them to predict what are the chances that Iran would attack Israel with weapons of mass destruction? The ratings were quite high. People were worried. But if we first asked them, "Do you have a gas mask?" then the ratings dropped dramatically. And that's magic. Apart from the fact that gas masks are largely useless against weapons of mass destruction, the fact that you have a gas mask is unlikely to affect the strategic or the tactical decision of a foreign power.政府正在向所有公民分发防毒面具。当时，我们给人们打电话，让他们预测伊朗用大规模杀伤性武器袭击以色列的可能性有多大？收视率相当高。人们很担心。但如果我们先问他们，“你有防毒面具吗？”然后收视率急剧下降。这就是神奇之处。除了防毒面具在很大程度上对大规模杀伤性武器毫无用处之外，拥有防毒面具不太可能影响外国的战略或战术决策。We have to remember, insurance is an antidote, it's not a vaccine. It doesn’t ward off evil; it doesn't eliminate the risks that we face. However, when it comes to insurance, the distinction between an antidote and a vaccine somehow gets blurred in our minds. 我们必须记住，保险是解药，不是疫苗。它不能抵挡邪恶；它并不能消除我们面临的风险。然而，当谈到保险时，解毒剂和疫苗之间的区别在我们的脑海中变得模糊不清。Why does it happen? It happens because people are not that good at assessing risks rationally. Let me give you an example. When I arranged my flight to come here, I had to decide if I wanted to buy travel insurance. Rationally, I should have based this decision on several considerations: the price of the policy, of course, the value of my luggage, the aggravation that I'm likely to experience if my luggage gets lost. 为什么会这样？这是因为人们不太善于理性地评估风险。让我给你举个例子。当我安排航班来这里时，我必须决定是否要购买旅行保险。理性地说，我应该基于几个考虑做出这个决定：保单的价格，当然，我行李的价值，如果我的行李丢失，我可能会经历的恶化。And of course, the likelihood of such an event, right? But most of the time, we're just too busy to make such rational calculations. And anyway, I doubt that Lufthansa are very keen to share their damage statistics with me. So what do we do instead? We rely on our intuition.当然，这类事件发生的可能性，对吗？但大多数时候，我们只是太忙了，无法做出如此理性的计算。不管怎样，我怀疑汉莎航空公司是否非常愿意与我分享他们的损失统计数据。那么我们该怎么做呢？我们依靠直觉。So how do we evaluate risks intuitively? We start by imagining the outcomes that we fear. So here I am, it's late at night, I'm sitting at this airport, all the other passengers already collected their luggage and left. I realize that my own suitcase is now probably heading to the North Pole.
那么，我们如何直观地评估风险呢？我们从想象我们害怕的结果开始。所以我在这里，已经是深夜了，我坐在这个机场，所有其他乘客都已经收拾好行李离开了。我意识到我自己的行李箱现在可能要去北极了。Thinking about this scenario creates anxiety, and then we use the level of anxiety that we feel in order to assess the probability. So if I'm feeling terrified, I will infer that the risk of such an event is quite high. But you see, this is an intuitive risk estimate. It is entirely psychological and emotion-based, which is why it is also highly susceptible to the magic of insurance.思考这个场景会产生焦虑，然后我们使用我们感受到的焦虑程度来评估可能性。因此，如果我感到害怕，我会推断发生这种事件的风险相当高。但你看，这是一个直观的风险估计。它完全是基于心理和情感的，这就是为什么它也很容易受到保险魔力的影响。Insurance reduces our anxiety. First, because the outcomes that we imagine are suddenly less grim. Yes, I'm sitting at the airport, yes, it's late at night, all the other passengers had left, but there will be this guy there, they would give me a voucher, eventually, I will get compensated, it's OK. Also, because we are conditioned to associate insurance with safety, security, tranquility and peace of mind. And if I'm feeling less anxious, I would infer that the risk is not that high. So there you have it. I have insurance, and the risk is gone.保险可以减轻我们的焦虑。首先，因为我们想象的结果突然变得不那么可怕了。是的，我坐在机场，是的，已经很晚了，所有其他乘客都已经离开了，但是会有这个人在那里，他们会给我一张优惠券，最终，我会得到补偿，没关系。此外，因为我们习惯于将保险与安全、保障、安宁和心灵的平静联系起来。如果我感觉不那么焦虑，我会推断风险没有那么高。好了。我有保险，风险已经消失了。But why do we associate insurance with peace of mind? Well, first, in many languages, this is exactly what the word "insurance" means. It comes from the word "sure," which means lack of doubts, no unknowns that would sneak up and bite you in the future, right? But also because traditionally, this is how insurance was promoted. Let me show you an example.但为什么我们要把保险和内心的平静联系起来呢？首先，在许多语言中，这正是“保险”一词的意思。它来自“确定”这个词，意思是没有怀疑，没有未知的东西会在未来悄悄地咬你，对吗？但另一个原因是，传统上保险业就是这样发展的。让我给你举个例子。This is a lovely advertising toy that was distributed to visitors at the British exhibition in 1924. So you see this guy and he looks terrified. He is barraged by the bricks of doom, fire, accident, falling on his head. And the tag on the bottom, it reads "anxiety," which perfectly describes the guy's expression. 这是一个可爱的广告玩具，在1924年的英国展览会上分发给参观者。所以你看到这个家伙，他看起来很害怕。他被厄运、火灾、意外和倒下的砖块击中。底部的标签上写着“焦虑”，它完美地描述了这个人的表情。But if you pull on that tag, something slides inside, and the guy transforms. First, he now has the protection of the Prudential insurance helmet, and his expression is changed into a smile. You know why? Because Prudential insurance dispels anxiety. Modern images of insurance convey the same message. Insurance logos often incorporate supporting hand below, and umbrellas above, ultimate protection. And then travel insurance ads. 但如果你拉上标签，里面会有东西滑进去，那家伙就会变形。首先，他现在有了保诚保险头盔的保护，他的表情变成了微笑。你知道为什么吗？因为谨慎保险可以消除焦虑。现代保险图像传达了同样的信息。保险标识通常包含下面的支撑手和上面的雨伞，以提供终极保护。然后是旅游保险广告。They could easily be mistaken for vacation brochures, right? Romantic couples, exotic islands, palm trees. And if for some reason you need images of smiling, happy people wearing white, do an image Google search with the words "pension plans" or "health insurance." Insurance ads rarely show you sick people, smashed cars, torn suitcase. The message is loud and clear: You have insurance, all is well in the world.它们很容易被误认为是度假手册，对吧？浪漫的情侣，异国情调的岛屿，棕榈树。如果出于某种原因，你需要微笑、快乐、穿着白色衣服的人的图片，可以在谷歌上搜索“养老金计划”或“医疗保险”的图片保险广告很少向你展示生病的人、撞坏的汽车、破损的行李箱。信息是响亮而明确的：你有保险，世界上一切都好。However, to get us to buy insurance, the promoters must also work our fears. Which is why, right after you paid a lot of money for a top of the line refrigerator, the same seller who, just moments ago, were explaining how reliable this product is, is now telling you that it may break down at any moment, which is why you should buy the extended warranty. And with some credit cards, you could get free travel insurance. 然而，为了让我们购买保险，发起人还必须消除我们的恐惧。这就是为什么，就在你花了很多钱买了一台顶级冰箱之后，刚才还在解释这款产品有多可靠的同一位卖家现在告诉你，它随时都可能出现故障，这就是为什么你应该购买延长保修期。有了一些信用卡，你可以得到免费的旅行保险。All you need to do is to call the agent. But when you make this call, you are told, yeah, but the free deal is only for the basic plan. Basic plan doesn't sound good already, right? And then you get to hear a list of things that you are not covered against, like fires and heart transplant and floods, etc. 你只需要打电话给探员。但当你打这个电话时，你会被告知，是的，但保障范围只针对非人为因素。非人为因素听起来不太好，对吧？然后你会听到一张清单，上面列出了一些你不在保险范围内的事情，比如火灾、心脏移植和洪水等等。But if you pay one more dollar a day, right? And your active imagination does the rest, with each item on the list, your anxiety is mounting, and you don't ask yourself, "Hey, I'm going to Paris, why would I care about a tsunami?" You pay the dollar, and all is well in the world again.但如果你每天多付一美元，对吗？剩下的事情就由你积极的想象力来做了，清单上的每一项都让你愈发焦虑，你不会问自己，“嘿，我要去巴黎，我为什么要关心海啸？”你付了钱，世界又好过了。In fact, just realizing that we are not covered against something is enough to distort our perception of risk. I once asked people to imagine, in one of my studies, that they're going to go on a trip and they plan to buy travel insurance at the airport. 事实上，仅仅意识到我们没有被保险就足以扭曲我们对风险的看法。在我的一项研究中，我曾要求人们想象他们将要去旅行，并计划在机场购买旅行保险。But by the time they reach the counter, boarding had already started, and they have to board that airplane painfully aware that they are not covered. And then I asked them to assess all kinds of travel-related risks. And these were dramatically inflated, compared to the ratings of people who did have insurance. 但当他们到达柜台时，登机已经开始了，他们不得不痛苦地登上飞机，意识到自己没有被覆盖。然后我让他们评估各种与旅行有关的风险。与有保险的人相比，这些数字被大大夸大了。For example, lost luggage, the risk of lost luggage, almost 50 percent. What are the chances that you will need hospitalization? Almost 45 percent, well, 45 percent. And how about, you will need to be rescued? Thirty-one percent. I remember the first time I saw this data, I was speechless. I was thinking, "Guys, if this is what you believe, why would you ever leave home" you know?例如，丢失行李，丢失行李的风险几乎为50%。你需要住院治疗的可能性有多大？几乎45%，嗯，45%。那么，你需要被营救吗？31%。我记得第一次看到这些数据时，我说不出话来。我在想，“伙计们，如果这是你们所相信的，你们为什么要离家出走”你们知道吗？Yeah. Boarding an airplane with no insurance is tempting fate. It's like realizing that your insurance policy had just expired and not renewing it? Grave danger, indeed. Your appliances, they know, you know. So we buy insurance and restore our peace of mind.是啊，在没有保险的情况下登机是一场冒险之旅。就好像意识到你的保单刚刚过期，却没有续保？真的很危险。你的设备，他们知道，你知道。所以我们买了保险，恢复了内心的平静。And now you're probably asking yourself, "But peace of mind is good. What's wrong with peace of mind," right? "What's the problem?" The problem is that we are highly likely to be over-insured. What does it mean? Well, first, we may be protecting ourselves against really unlikely events like a tsunami in Paris. Or we may be paying a lot to prevent a trivial loss. 现在你可能会问自己，“但内心的平静是好的。内心的平静有什么错，”对吗？“怎么了？”问题是我们很可能被过度保险。这是什么意思？首先，我们可能是在保护自己免受像巴黎海啸这样不太可能发生的事件的影响。或者，为了避免一个微不足道的损失，我们可能付出了很多。Does it really make sense to extend the warranty on an old washing machine? And if you will examine your own policies back at home, many of you will find that you have redundant coverage. You are paying several policies on the same event. Many of you do that. Me included, and I should know better. So ... This kind of behavior can get people in debt, and even if they don't, this is money that we could spend in far more pleasurable ways, right? At least I can.延长旧洗衣机的保修期真的有意义吗？如果你在国内检查自己的保单，很多人会发现你有多余的保险。您在同一事件上支付了多份保单。你们很多人都这么做。包括我在内，我应该更清楚。所以这种行为会让人们负债累累，即使他们不负债累累，我们也可以用更愉快的方式来花钱，对吧？至少我能。But selling peace of mind is a problem for the insurance companies as well. Why? The insurance companies are well aware of the problem called “moral hazard”. You see, when people are insured, they become negligent. They start leaving their valuables out in the open. They don't check their fire alarms, they drive faster. In short, they act in ways which put them at greater risk. 但销售安心保险对保险公司来说也是一个问题。为什么？保险公司非常清楚被称为“道德风险”的问题。你看，当人们被保险时，他们就会变得疏忽大意。他们开始把贵重物品放在外面。他们不检查火警，他们开得更快。简言之，他们的行为方式让他们面临更大的风险。Now, the insurance companies, they believe that we behave like that because we know that if something happens, someone else will pay. Which is why many policies include deductibles. That's the money that comes out of your pocket, right? So the deductibles are there to make sure that some of the risk will stay with the client. 现在，保险公司，他们认为我们这样做是因为我们知道如果发生了什么事情，有人会帮我们兜底。这就是为什么许多保单都包含免赔额。这就是从你口袋里掏出的钱，对吗？因此，免赔额的存在是为了确保一些风险会留在客户身上。But based on the research that I just shared with you, it is entirely possible that the reason that we are careless is not just that we think that someone else will pay, but it's also the magical belief that if I have insurance, it's not going to rain. The damage is not going to happen, and magical thinking is not susceptible to deductibles.但根据我刚才与大家分享的研究，我们之所以粗心，完全有可能不仅仅是因为我们认为其他人会帮我们善后，还有一个神奇的信念，那就是如果我有保险，就不会下雨。损害不会发生，魔法思维也不会受到免赔额的影响。What are the lessons to be learned? For us, for you? Next time you consider buying insurance, remember Kafka. Ask yourself: Am I buying insurance for the right reasons? Am I making a sound economic decision or merely trying to please my psyche? As for the insurance companies, I hope they will consider changing their message. Don't sell magical happiness. Encourage us to buy insurance when it is economically rational and the responsible thing to do.要吸取什么教训？为了我们，为了你？下次你考虑购买保险时，请记住卡夫卡。扪心自问：我买保险的理由正确吗？我是在做一个合理的经济决策，还是只是想取悦我的心灵？至于保险公司，我希望他们会考虑改变他们的营销方式。不要兜售神奇的幸福。而是鼓励我们在经济合理和负责任的情况下购买保险。And finally, guys, I hope that next time someone says "I study insurance," you would say, "Wonderful. Please tell me more."最后，伙计们，我希望下次有人说“我研究保险”，你们会说，“太好了。会说你就多说点。”Remark：一切权益归TED所有，更多TED相关信息可至官网www.ted.com查询！
