JCERSM | 第 88 期学术讲座: 复杂系统的风险评估 | 主讲人: Enrico Zio

System risk assessment is a mature scientific discipline, whose objective is to allow identifying the hazards/threats which the system of interest is exposed to, analyzing potential accident scenarios, their causes and consequences, and eventually describing risk, possibly quantitatively and with an adequate treatment of the uncertainties associated to the assessment. The risk assessment is based on the knowledge available on the system of interest.

It is a fact that we live in a world in continuous transition to meet the numerous and increasingly challenging objectives of efficiency, flexibility, sustainability etc. Complex systems and systems of systems are being designed, built and operated to meet these increasingly challenging objectives. Innovations are being developed for better-being and more benefits for all. In such evolving context, new and unknown hazards and dangers emerge, which must be addressed with innovative methods of risk analysis, assessment and management. Scenarios must be imagined and postulated, and evaluations must be performed in the presence of deep uncertainties. The outcomes of the evaluations inform decisions to prevent undesired events, and mitigate and recover from their consequences, were they to occur.

In this lecture, directions and examples of research and development in risk analysis and assessment are presented, including the use of simulation for accident scenario identification and exploration, the exploitation of monitoring data for the dynamic updating of risk assessment and condition-based risk assessment, and the extension of the framework of risk assessment to resilience.

Enrico Zio received the MSc degree in nuclear engineering from Politecnico di Milano in 1991 and in mechanical engineering from UCLA in 1995, and the Ph.D. degree in nuclear engineering from Politecnico di Milano and in probabilistic risk assessment at MIT in 1996 and 1998, respectively. He is currently full professor at the Centre for research on Risk and Crises (CRC) of Ecole de Mines, ParisTech, PSL University, France, full professor and President of the Alumni Association at Politecnico di Milano, Italy, distinguished guest professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, adjunct professor at City University of Hong Kong, Beihang University and Wuhan University, China and Co-Director of the Center for REliability and Safety of Critical Infrastructures (CRESCI) and the sino-french laboratory of Risk Science and Engineering (RISE), at Beihang University, Beijing, China. He is member and vice-president of the Board of Directors of Fondazione Politecnico di Milano, and IEEE and Sigma Xi Distinguished Lecturer. In 2020, he has been awarded the prestigious Humboldt Research Award from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in Germany. His Google Scholar H-index is 103 and he is in the top 2% of the World scientists, according to Stanford ranking.

His research focuses on the modeling of the failure-repair-maintenance behavior of components and complex systems, for the analysis of their reliability, maintainability, prognostics, safety, vulnerability, resilience and security characteristics, and on the development and use of Monte Carlo simulation methods, artificial intelligence techniques and optimization heuristics. He is author and co-author of more than 10 books and more than 600 papers on international journals, Chairman and Co-Chairman of several international Conferences, associate editor of several international journals and referee of more than 20.