《American Economic Review》2025年1月刊目录及摘要

01.Five Facts about MPCs: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

关于 MPC 的五个事实：来自随机实验的证据

Johannes Boehm

Etienne Fize

Xavier Jaravel

摘要

We present five facts from an experiment on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of transitory transfers: (1) the one-month MPC on a cash-like transfer is 23 percent; (2) it is substantially higher (61 percent) on a transfer administered via a card where remaining funds expire after three weeks, inconsistent with money fungibility; (3) the consumption response is concentrated in the first three weeks; (4) MPCs vary with household characteristics but are high even for the liquid wealthy; (5) unconditional MPC distribution exhibits large variation. Our findings inform the design of stimulus policies and pose challenges to existing macroeconomic models.

我们提出了一项关于临时转移支付的边际消费倾向 （MPC） 实验的五个事实：（1） 类似现金转移的一个月的 MPC 为 23%;（2） 如果通过卡进行转账，剩余资金在三周后到期，则 IPS 要高得多 （61%），这与货币可替代性不一致;（3） 消费反应集中在前 3 周;（4） MPC 因家庭特征而异，但即使对于流动性富裕的人来说也很高;（5） 无条件 MPC 分布表现出很大的变化。我们的研究结果为刺激政策的设计提供了信息，并对现有的宏观经济模型提出了挑战。

02.Universalism: Global Evidence

普遍主义：全球证据

Alexander W. Cappelen

Benjamin Enke

Bertil Tungodden

摘要

This paper leverages nationally representative surveys across 60 countries and 64,000 respondents to present novel stylized facts about the relationship-specific nature of altruism. Across individuals, universalist preferences systematically vary with demographics such as age and religiosity and are predictive of many left-wing political views, albeit in culturally highly heterogeneous ways. Across countries, universalism is strongly linked to a broader radius of trust. Looking at origins, universalism varies with the economic, political, and religious organization of societies in ways that are consistent with the idea that the scope of altruism is partly shaped by economic incentives and democracy.

本文利用 60 个国家/地区的全国代表性调查和 64,000 名受访者，提出了关于利他主义的特定关系性质的新颖程式化事实。在个人之间，普世主义偏好系统性地随年龄和宗教信仰等人口统计数据而变化，并预测了许多左翼政治观点，尽管在文化上以高度异质的方式。在各个国家/地区，普遍主义与更广泛的信任半径密切相关。从起源来看，普世主义随社会的经济、政治和宗教组织而变化，这与利他主义的范围部分由经济激励和民主塑造的观点是一致的。

03.In Harm's Way? Infrastructure Investments and the Persistence of Coastal Cities

Clare Balboni

摘要

Coasts contain a disproportionate share of the world's population, reflecting historical advantages, but environmental change threatens a reversal of coastal fortune in the coming decades as natural disasters intensify and sea levels rise. This paper considers whether large infrastructure investments should continue to favor coastal areas. I estimate a dynamic spatial equilibrium framework using detailed geo-referenced data on road investments in Vietnam from 2000 to 2010 and find evidence that coastal favoritism has significant costs. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the dynamic effects of environmental change in deciding where to allocate infrastructure today.

沿海地区人口占世界人口的比例过高，这反映了历史优势，但随着自然灾害的加剧和海平面的上升，环境变化在未来几十年内威胁着沿海地区的命运发生逆转。本文考虑了大型基础设施投资是否应继续有利于沿海地区。我使用 2000 年至 2010 年越南道路投资的详细地理参考数据估计了一个动态空间均衡框架，并发现证据表明沿海偏爱具有重大成本。结果突出了在决定当今基础设施分配位置时考虑环境变化的动态影响的重要性。

04.Price Floors and Employer Preferences: Evidence from a Minimum Wage Experiment

价格下限和雇主偏好：来自最低工资实验的证据

John J. Horton

摘要

Firms posting job openings in an online labor market were randomly assigned minimum hourly wages. When facing a minimum wage, fewer firms hired, but those they did hire paid higher wages. Hours-worked fell substantially. Treated firms shifted to hiring more productive workers. Using the platform's imposition of a market-wide minimum wage after the experiment, I find that many of the experimental results also hold in equilibrium, including the substitution towards more productive workers. However, there was also a large reduction in the number of jobs posted for which the minimum wage would likely bind.

在在线劳动力市场上发布职位空缺的公司被随机分配最低时薪。当面临最低工资时，雇用的公司较少，但他们雇用的公司支付的工资更高。工作时间大幅下降。受待遇的公司转向雇用更高效的工人。利用该平台在实验后施加的全市场最低工资，我发现许多实验结果也保持均衡，包括向生产率更高的工人的替代。然而，发布的最低工资可能具有约束力的工作数量也大幅减少。

05.Heterogeneity in School Value Added and the Private Premium

学校附加值和私人保费的异质性

Tahir Andrabi

Natalie Bau

Jishnu Das

Asim I. Khwaja

摘要

We estimate and validate test score–based measures of school quality (school value added, or SVA) in Pakistan. We document substantial variation in SVA within villages and within the public and private sectors, leading to a wide range of possible estimates of the private premium. We also show that parents value SVA. Heterogeneity in parental demand for quality helps explain both the evolution of the market over time and cross-market variation in school quality. The supply side responds to parental demand for quality in the private sector, but there is no evidence it does so in the public sector.

我们估计并验证巴基斯坦基于考试成绩的学校质量衡量标准（学校增值或 SVA）。我们记录了村庄内部以及公共和私营部门内部 SVA 的巨大差异，导致对私人保费的可能估计范围广泛。我们还表明，父母重视 SVA。家长对质量要求的异质性有助于解释市场随时间推移的演变和学校质量的跨市场差异。供应侧响应了私营部门对质量的父母需求，但没有证据表明它在公共部门这样做。

06.Organized Voters: Elections and Public Funding of Nonprofits

Camille Urvoy

摘要

What makes politicians respond to civil society organizations' demands? I use new data on government transfers to French associations and exploit close elections to show that politicians grant more funds to ideologically close organizations when the local incumbent is a political ally and was elected by a small margin. The results are consistent with politicians and organizations exchanging financial support for electoral support. Organizations secure funding because of the votes they can deliver, not because of their campaign contributions; however, the fact that transfers appear to be conditioned on support may undermine their ability to help hold politicians accountable.

是什么让政治家回应公民社会组织的要求？我使用政府向法国协会转移的新数据，并利用势均力敌的选举来表明，当当地现任者是政治盟友并以微弱优势当选时，政客会向意识形态上封闭的组织提供更多资金。结果与政客和组织用财政支持换取选举支持是一致的。组织获得资金是因为他们可以提供选票，而不是因为他们的竞选捐款;然而，转移支付似乎以支持为条件的事实可能会削弱他们帮助追究政客责任的能力。

Gianluca Benigno

Luca Fornaro

Martin Wolf

摘要

We provide a model connecting the global saving glut to productivity growth. The key feature is that the tradable sector is the engine of growth of the economy. Capital flows from developing countries to the United States boost demand for US nontradable goods, inducing a reallocation of US economic activity from the tradable sector to the nontradable one. In turn, lower profits in the tradable sector lead firms to cut back investment in innovation. Since innovation in the United States determines the evolution of the world technological frontier, the result is a drop in global productivity growth.

我们提供了一个将全球储蓄过剩与生产率增长联系起来的模型。主要特点是可贸易部门是经济增长的引擎。从发展中国家流向美国的资本推动了对美国不可贸易商品的需求，导致美国经济活动从可贸易部门重新分配到不可贸易部门。反过来，可贸易部门的较低利润导致公司削减对创新的投资。由于美国的创新决定了世界技术前沿的演变，因此其结果是全球生产率增长的下降。

Jonathan Gruber

David H. Howard

Jetson Leder-Luis

Theodore L. Caputi

摘要

The Medicare hospice program is intended to provide palliative care to terminal patients, but patients with long stays in hospice are highly profitable, motivating concerns about overuse among the Alzheimer's and Dementia (ADRD) population in the rapidly growing for-profit sector. We provide the first causal estimates of the effect of for-profit hospice on patient spending using the entry of for-profit hospices over 20 years. We find hospice has saved money for Medicare by offsetting other expensive care among ADRD patients. As a result, policies limiting hospice use including revenue caps and antifraud lawsuits are distortionary and deter potentially cost-saving admissions.

临终关怀计划旨在为终末患者提供姑息治疗，但长期在临终关怀中住院的患者利润丰厚，这引发了人们对快速增长的营利性部门中阿尔茨海默氏症和痴呆症 （ADRD） 人群过度使用的担忧。我们使用营利性临终关怀机构的进入提供了 20 年来营利性临终关怀对患者支出影响的首次因果估计。我们发现，临终关怀通过抵消 ADRD 患者的其他昂贵护理，为 Medicare 节省了资金。因此，限制临终关怀使用的政策，包括收入上限和反欺诈诉讼，是扭曲的，并阻止了可能节省成本的入院。

Valentin Haddad

Alan Moreira

Tyler Muir

摘要

At the announcement of a new policy, agents form a view of state-contingent policy actions and impact. We develop a method to estimate this state-contingent perception and implement it for many asset-purchase interventions worldwide. Expectations of larger support in bad states—"policy puts"—explain a large fraction of the announcements' impact. For example, when the Fed introduced purchases of corporate bonds in March 2020, markets expected five times more price support had conditions worsened relative to the median scenario. Perceived promises of additional support in bad states alter asset prices, risk, and the response to future announcements.

在宣布新策略时，代理会形成状态或有策略操作和影响的视图。我们开发了一种方法来估计这种状态或有感知，并将其应用于全球许多资产购买干预措施。对糟糕州获得更大支持的预期——“政策推拢”——解释了公告的很大一部分影响。例如，当美联储在 2020 年 3 月推出公司债券购买计划时，市场预计如果情况相对于中位情景恶化，价格支撑将增加五倍。在经济状况不佳的情况下，人们认为会提供额外支持，这会改变资产价格、风险和对未来公告的反应。

Rawley Heimer

Zwetelina Iliewa

Alex Imas

Martin Weber

摘要

We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and a series of experiments, we compare people's initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. Across settings, people accept risk as part of a loss-exit strategy—planning to continue taking risk after gains and stopping after losses. Actual behavior deviates from initial strategies by cutting gains early and chasing losses. More people accept risk when offered a commitment to their initial strategy. Our results help reconcile seemingly contradictory findings on risk-taking in static versus dynamic contexts. We explore implications for theory and welfare.

我们记录了风险选择中存在强大的动态不一致。使用独特的经纪数据集和一系列实验，我们将人们最初的冒险计划与随后的决策进行了比较。在不同的环境中，人们接受风险作为亏损退出策略的一部分——计划在获利后继续承担风险，在亏损后停止。实际行为偏离了初始策略，提早削减收益并追逐损失。当有人承诺他们的初始策略时，更多的人会接受风险。我们的结果有助于调和关于静态与动态环境中风险承担的看似矛盾的发现。我们探讨了对理论和福利的影响。