据JME官网显示，来自上海交通大学的徐玏、喻洋、牛津大学的Francesco Zanetti，合作撰写的论文“The adoption and termination of suppliers over the business cycle”，在国际货币经济学顶刊《Journal of Monetary Economics》线上正式发表。
Title: The adoption and termination of suppliers over the business cycle
商业周期中供应商的采用与终止
徐玏
上海交通大学
喻洋
上海交通大学
Francesco Zanetti
牛津大学
We assemble a firm-level dataset to study the adoption and termination of suppliers over business cycles. We document that the aggregate number and rate of adoption of suppliers are procyclical. The rate of termination is acyclical at the aggregate level, and the cyclicality of termination encompasses large differences across producers. To account for these new facts, we develop a model with optimizing producers that incur separate costs for management, adoption, and termination of suppliers. These costs alter the incentives to scale up production and to replace existing with new suppliers. Sufficiently high convexity in management relative to adjustment costs is crucial to replicating the observed cyclicality in the adoption and termination rates at the producer and aggregate levels. We study the welfare implications of credit injections and subsidies on new inputs—the two main classes of supply-chain policies adopted in the U.S. since the COVID-19 pandemic. Credit injections generally outperform subsidies on new inputs, except when aggregate TFP is exceptionally high.
本文构建了一个企业层面的数据集，以研究商业周期中供应商的采用与终止情况。本文发现，供应商采用的总体数量和采用率具有顺周期性。在总体层面，终止率是无周期性的，并且终止的周期性在不同生产商之间存在巨大差异。为了解释这些新事实，本文开发了一个模型，该模型中的优化生产商在管理、采用和终止供应商方面会产生不同的成本。这些成本改变了扩大生产和用新供应商替换现有供应商的激励。相对于调整成本，管理成本的足够高的凸性对于复制生产商和总体层面上观察到的采用和终止率的周期性至关重要。本文研究了信贷注入和对新投入的补贴这两种自新冠疫情以来美国采用的主要供应链政策类别的福利影响。信贷注入通常优于对新投入的补贴，除非总体全要素生产率异常高。
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