原文信息
A provincial analysis on wind and solar investment needs towards China's carbon neutrality
原文链接：
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924022244
Highlights
• Annual RE investment averages $317 billion (2020–2060).
• RE investment needs to be tripled from historical $100 billion average.
• Significant spatial and temporal investment variations.
• RE investments range from $0.21 billion in Tibet to $43 billion in Inner Mongolia.
• Factors influencing regional disparity include technology, resources, and finance.
Abstract
Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy (RE) is one of the most important strategies to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality goal in China. In this context, it is crucial to understand the RE investment needs at the provincial level to better allocate resources and develop policies to facilitate RE development at the local level. In this paper, we estimate the wind and solar investment needs of Chinese provinces between 2020 and 2060 under four alternative pathways towards China's 2060 carbon neutrality, using a global integrated assessment model with provincial details of China combined with the most updated cost data for each province, and explicitly considering national and local investment market conditions. Results show that the average annual wind and solar investment needs are $317 billion per year between 2020 and 2060, or 2.3 % of China's 2020 GDP. We find large spatial and temporal variations in the needed RE investment and identify that technologies, resource endowment, and financial conditions are the three primary contributors to the regional disparity in investment needs. This study delves into the local factors constraining RE deployment in China, providing insights applicable not only to the country but also holding implications for studying global RE investment dynamics in alignment with the collective pursuit of heightened clean energy transition goals.
Keywords
Renewable energy investment
Wind investment
Solar investment
Carbon neutrality
Financial condition
Investment needs
Graphics
Fig. 1. National results under the 1.5 °C carbon neutrality. a. Installed cumulative capacity requirement to achieve carbon neutrality from 2020 to 2060 and the NDC target under the core scenario. The dotted line is the historical installed capacity. The solid line represents the projection of cumulative capacity from our carbon neutrality scenario. The boxes represent the range of estimates of 2030 and 2060 installed cumulative capacity from four scenarios, respectively. The grey arrow bar represents the additional 3400 GW capacity to be installed between 2030 and 2060. b. Average annual wind and solar investment needs in China from 2010 to 2060 across scenarios (units: $2018 Billion). The dashed horizontal line indicates the average annual renewable investment needs between 2020 and 2060. The label “1p5_net0” in all scenarios indicates that they fall under the 1.5 °C carbon neutrality pathway.
Fig. 2. The spatial and temporal variations in provincial RE investments. a. Average annual wind and solar investment needs between 2025 and 2060 by province (units: $2018 Billion). b. Six grid regions in China. c. Peaking wind and solar investment period by province. The different blue colors represent the 5-year period when each province's wind and solar investments peak. The lighter blue indicates an earlier peaking in investments, and the darker blue indicates a later peaking period. Hongkong, Macau, and Taiwan are not included due to lack of data availability.
Fig. 3. Wind and solar investments under the core and advanced nuclear scenarios. Group 1: expanded inland provinces (i.e., Anhui to Shanghai); group 2: coastal provinces with existing nuclear power plants (i.e., Fujian to Zhejiang); group 3: inland provinces without nuclear (i.e., Beijing to Yunnan).
Fig. 4. Sensitivity analysis of annual average wind and solar investments needs for 5-year periods in China from 2025 to 2060, according to different financial indicators and technologies. The floating box illustrates the minimum–maximum ranges across different financial indicators (orange), technologies (green), and a combination of financial indicators and technologies (blue). Within each time period, we can assess whether financial indicators or technologies have a greater impact on investment calculations. For instance, in 2020, the financial indicators represented by the orange box surpass the influence of technologies depicted by the green box.
Fig. 5. Timeline and milestones of green finance development in China. Sources: all the policies are collected by the authors. For detailed information on each policy, please review Supplementary Section 6: RE related Policies.
关于Applied Energy
本期小编：何意；审核人：丁志雄
《Applied Energy》（影响因子10.1)是一本专注于能源（包括科学、技术、政策及管理等）领域研究与创新的学术期刊，创刊于1975年，由Elsevier出版商出版。该刊发文范围涵盖能源及相关领域，旨在及时、准确、全面地报道在能源领域科学研究中取得的新发现、新知识、新技术、以及新学术动态等。开源（Open Access）姊妹新刊《Advances in Applied Energy》影响因子13.0，CiteScore 23.9。全部论文可以免费下载。在《Applied Energy》的成功经验基础上，致力于传播应用能源领域顶尖跨学科科研成果。此微信公众号AEii，是能源领域科研人员快速权威的学术交流和分享最新研究成果的平台，欢迎关注！
公众号团队小编招募长期开放，欢迎发送自我简介（含教育背景、研究方向等内容）至wechat@applied-energy.org
点击“阅读原文”
喜欢我们的内容？
点个“赞”或者“再看”支持下吧！
阅读原文
