【Working Paper】Asian Banking Industry from 2022 to Mid-2023

学术   财经   2024-09-13 18:58   北京  

Chen Weidong, Fellow of Asian Financial Cooperation Association Think Tankers Committee, General Manager of the Research Institute, Bank of China
Wang Jiaqiang, Shao Ke, Du Yang and Li Yifan also contributed to this article.
Review and Outlook of the Asian Banking Industry from 2022 to Mid-2023
In 2022, with the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures, the Asian economic recovery trend was obvious, and the overall operating situation of the banking industry was relatively robust. At the same time, the developed economies in Europe and the United States started the process of extraordinary interest rate hikes, which had a certain impact on the emerging economies in Asia. Superimposed on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the complexity of the operating environment increased significantly. The asset and liability scale of the Asian banking industry declined slightly, but the growth rate was still higher than the overall global level; profitability was resilient, but there was differentiation between different economies; credit risk declined slightly, liquidity risk was controllable, and capital adequacy ratio increased. In 2023, affected by the sharp turbulence in the international situation, the coexistence of high inflation and high debt, and the advanced economies still in the interest rate hiking cycle, the global economic growth momentum slowed down, but the pace of economic recovery in Asia remained solid. Against this backdrop, the Asian banking industry is poised to buck the trend and achieve expansion of asset and liability, return to normalized net profit growth, and expand in the areas of credit, wealth management, cross-border business, and digital transformation, despite the challenges posed by unanticipated risk factors.

I. The size of the banking sector remains robust

In 2022, Asia's banking sector continued to show strong resilience against the backdrop of a sluggish global economic recovery, and has become increasingly important in the global banking system. On a sub-regional basis, China continues to lead in terms of banking sector size, while Central Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia maintain solid growth momentum. The decline in the size of the banking sector in some other economies needs to be highlighted.

In terms of asset size, the total assets of the Asian banking sector amounted to $77.14 trillion at the end of 2022, accounting for about 46.08% of the total assets of the global banking sector. Among them, the top five economies in terms of total banking assets are China, Japan, Hong Kong, China, India and South Korea. At the end of 2022, the total assets of China's banking sector amounted to $45.92 trillion, accounting for nearly 60% of the total assets of Asia's banking sector, and accounting for about 27% of the total assets of the global banking sector. Among them, the total assets of large commercial banks totaled $22.44 trillion, accounting for nearly 50% of the total assets of Chinese commercial banks, and the degree of concentration has increased. During the critical period of economic recovery and development, large commercial banks have actively played the role of the lead goose, and the level of quality and efficiency of service to the real economy has been significantly improved. Small and medium-sized banks adhere to high-quality development, focus on key areas of financial services, and build a diversified commercial banking system. The total asset size of the Japanese banking industry is $10.48 trillion, accounting for about 14% of the total asset size of the Asian banking industry. Among them, the asset size of national city banks accounted for half of the total asset size of the Japanese banking industry; the total assets of regional banks, which are mainly engaged in regional business, accounted for more than 34%; and the proportion of trust banks and foreign banks accounted for about 8% and 5%, respectively. The total assets of the banking sector in Hong Kong, China, amounted to $3.47 trillion, accounting for about 4.5% of the asset size of the Asian banking sector. As a leading global financial center, Hong Kong, China has a large number of financial institutions in the banking industry, including 155 licensed banks, 15 restricted license banks and 12 deposit-taking companies under the three-tier bank licensing system; Hong Kong's banking industry has a high degree of openness to the outside world, with about 148 of the world's top 500 banks setting up branches in Hong Kong, China, deeply integrating into the Hong Kong market, and with a relatively broad business layout involving a full range of financial services, including retail, investment banking. The total assets of the banking industry in India and South Korea are $3.00 trillion and $2.62 trillion respectively, accounting for 3.9% and 3.4% of the total assets of the Asian banking industry, which together constitute an important driving force for the development of the Asian banking industry.

In terms of asset growth, the total assets of the Asian banking sector at the end of 2022 declined by about 0.76% year on year, but the growth rate performance is still better than the global average (-2.11%). It is worth noting that in 2022, the Fed raised interest rates seven times, with a cumulative increase of 425 basis points, and the significant appreciation of the US dollar to some extent masked the true performance of the development of the Asian banking industry. If the impact is removed, the Asian banking sector development momentum will be stronger. Calculated by the dollar caliber, China's banking industry total assets growth rate is only 1.41%, calculated by the RMB calibre, the total asset size growth rate is as high as 10.38%, the latter is more reflective of the development of China's banking industry in reality. Japan's banking sector assets fell 14.32% year on year, but if calculated in yen, total assets grew 2.87% year on year, the yen's sharp depreciation against the dollar has become an important reason. Cyprus banking sector asset size fell sharply, even excluding the impact of the appreciation of the dollar, asset size is still down 5% year on year. In recent years, the Cyprus banking industry is committed to reducing the level of non-performing loan ratio, asset size moderate contraction. Sri Lanka's banking sector size declined by 8.30% year on year, partly related to its deep debt crisis as well as economic recession. In 2022, Sri Lanka's GDP contracted by 8.66% year on year. Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Uzbekistan and other economies with faster growth in the size of the banking sector, mainly due to the good momentum of economic recovery, according to the data disclosed by the IMF, in 2022, the real growth rate of the GDP of the above countries were 12.60%, 7.00%, 10.11%, 5.61% respectively.

Table 1 Overview of total assets of the banking sector in the global and Asian representative economies

Unit: $ billion

Sources:IMF,Financial authorities of each economy

In terms of the size of liabilities, at the end of 2022, the total liabilities of the Asian banking sector totaled $79.51 trillion, accounting for about 49% of the total liabilities of the global banking sector. Among them, the top five economies in terms of total liabilities are China, Japan, Hong Kong, China, India and South Korea. at the end of 2022, the total liabilities of the banking sector in China reached $50 trillion, accounting for about 63% of the liabilities of the banking sector in Asia, and close to one-third of the liabilities of the global banking sector. Among them, the balance of RMB deposits was $37.12 trillion, an increase of 1.89% year on year, while the growth rate was as high as 11.30% when calculating the size of deposits in RMB calibre. The balance of foreign deposits was $853.9 billion, a year on year decline of 14.34 per cent. The total liabilities of the Japanese banking sector totaled $10.09 trillion, accounting for about 13% of the liabilities of the Asian banking sector. Of this, the total deposit balance was $7.23 trillion, down 17.25% year on year. However, if calculated in Japanese yen, the size of deposits increased by 7.69% year on year, continuing the high growth trend, driving the financial assets of Japanese households to record highs. According to the latest data released by the Bank of Japan, the end of March 2023, Japan's household financial assets up to 2043 trillion yen. Hong Kong, China's banking sector total liabilities of $3.47 trillion, accounting for 4.37% of the total liabilities of the Asian banking sector. Among them, the balance of customer deposits is 1.98 trillion U.S. dollars, in Europe and the United States economies to raise interest rates, Hong Kong's implementation of the linked exchange rate system and other factors, Hong Kong's banking industry to enhance the ability to collect deposits. Correspondingly, the Hong Kong banking sector's reliance on overseas interbanks on the liability side was reduced, with borrowings from overseas interbanks at $485,655 million, a sharp decline of 15% year on year. The total liabilities of the Indian banking sector stood at $2.74 trillion, accounting for 3.45% of the total liabilities of the Asian banking sector. Of this, the deposit balance was $2.32 trillion, an increase of 4.53% year on year. With the continuous development of technology and communication techniques, the coverage of communication in rural India has continued to rise, leading to the development of the rural savings market. The total liabilities of the Korean banking sector totaled $2.44 trillion, accounting for 3.06% of the total liabilities of the Asian banking sector. Of this, the size of deposits in commercial and specialized banks totaled $1.68 trillion, down 7.00% year on year, or up 7.00% year on year if calculated in Korean won terms. In order to curb the sharp depreciation of the won as well as soaring inflation, the Bank of Korea raised interest rates six times during the year, which drove up residents' deposits to some extent.

In terms of liability growth, the total liabilities of the Asian banking sector at the end of 2022 declined by 1.52% year on year, with a significant reduction of 13 percentage points in growth compared with the same period of the previous year. Although some Asian economies were forced to follow the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike and raise the benchmark interest rate, it is still difficult to change the trend of currency depreciation and deposit outflow. The five economies with the highest year-on-year growth in banking sector liabilities were Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Uzbekistan and the United Arab Emirates. Armenia's total banking sector liabilities amounted to $18.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42.42%. Of this, the deposit balance of $5.584 billion, which grew by nearly 30% year on year, was the main driver of the rise in the size of the banking sector's liabilities. According to data disclosed by the World Bank, Armenia's GDP will be $701.421 billion in 2022, growing by more than 40% year on year. The total liability size of Kyrgyzstan's banking sector was $4.779 billion, up 30.74% year on year. Of this, the size of deposits totaled $4.015 billion, up 40.55% year on year, making them an important source of bank funding. The total liability size of the banking sector in Georgia, Uzbekistan and the UAE was $21.598 billion, $43.183 billion and $847.297 billion, with year-on-year growth of 28.07%, 22.50% and 11.56%, respectively. Similar to the change in asset size, Japan, Sri Lanka and Cyprus were the three economies with the highest decrease in liability size, down 16.26%, 15.82% and 14.93% respectively. Japan, which was mainly affected by interest rate hikes and currency depreciation in European and American economies, increased its liability size by 3.08% when measured in its own currency. In Sri Lanka and Cyprus, the decrease in the size of their liabilities was mainly related to the financial situation of their economies.

Table 2 Overview of total liabilities of the banking sector in global and Asian representative economies

Unit: $ billion

Sources:IMF,Financial administrations of economies

II. Stronger earnings resilience in the banking sector

In 2022, global economic growth slowed down due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, energy shortages, and tightening of monetary policies in developed economies. According to the data disclosed by IMF, in 2022, the real global GDP growth rate will be 3.42%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.86 percentage points. The banking industry, as a pro-cyclical industry, has experienced a decline in profitability. From the perspective of representative developed countries, the net profit scale of the US banking industry is $257.5 billion, down 4% year on year; the net profit scale of the French banking industry is $36.8 billion, down about 21% year on year; the net profit scale of the German banking industry is $36.6 billion, down more than 50% year on year; and the profitability of the UK banking industry remains solid, achieving a year-on-year growth of 10%. Asia's representative economies banking industry also suffered a global economic slowdown test, but showed full resilience, net profit scale totaled 512.019 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 8.63% year on year, if we exclude the impact of the dollar appreciation, the profitability is stronger. China's mainland banking industry net profit scale of 330.669 billion U.S. dollars, down 3.51% year on year. If calculated in RMB, the net profit scale increased by 5.4% year on year, and profitability was stable under the impact of the continuous narrowing of net interest spread and fluctuation of non-interest income. The net profit size of the Turkish banking sector was $34.684 billion, up 158.76% year on year, shining in terms of both profit size and growth rate, with an increase in the size of loans generating lucrative net interest income for the banking sector. In 2022, the size of loans in the Turkish banking sector grew by more than 50% year on year. The net profit size of the banking sector in Japan, India and Indonesia is $32.630 billion, $31.454 billion and $16.990 billion, growing by about 24.40%, 35.33% and 39.94% year on year, respectively.

The profitability of the banking sector in different Asian economies is somewhat differentiated, with most economies achieving high growth. Asian economies actively responded to the challenges posed by the global macroeconomic and financial environment and flexibly adjusted their monetary and fiscal policies, providing fertile ground for the development of the banking industry; with the rapid rise of major Asian economies and the obvious trend of eastward shift of the center of gravity of the global economic development, the banking business is facing great opportunities. The fastest year-on-year net profit growth rates were recorded in Kyrgyzstan and Cyprus, at 621.43% and 369.14% respectively. Among them, the growth of Kyrgyzstan's banking sector net profit was related to the increase in its foreign exchange trading revenues. The Cypriot regulator is committed to improving the asset quality of the banking sector, and commercial banks improved their profitability through diversified income and strict cost control. The banking sector in Sri Lanka, Maldives and Macao, China, recorded relatively large declines in net profit, down 50.74%, 31.62% and 22.58%, respectively. Among them, the banking sector in Macao, China struggled to keep pace with the rise in deposit rates on the back of interest rate hikes, resulting in inverted deposit and loan spreads, narrowed interest spreads in the banking sector and reduced interest income.

Table 3 Overview of net profits of the banking sector in global and Asian representative economies

Unit: $ billion

Sources:IMF,Financial administrations of economies

In addition, the Asian banking industry's return on assets (ROA) rose in line with the rise in return on equity (ROE), and the equity multiplier was essentially flat. At the end of 2022, the overall profitability of the Asian banking industry rebounded, with ROA at 2.12%, up 0.61 percentage points year on year, and ROE at 14.44%, up about 4.09 percentage points year on year. The equity multiplier stood at 6.82, unchanged from 2021, as the Asian banking sector balanced capital replenishment while achieving scale. The banking sector in some economies faced challenges in operation, and ROE still showed a downward trend, with the ROE of the banking sector in Georgia, Maldives, Macao, China, and China declining by 5.94, 4.97, 4.04, and 0.31 percentage points, respectively. Meanwhile, the equity multiplier of the banking sector in some economies has risen, reflecting greater asset expansion under counter-cyclical credit policies and increased leverage in the banking sector, which will likely face some pressure to replenish capital. For example, the equity multipliers of the banking sector in Japan and Macao, China, both exceeded 20.

Table 4 ROE and ROA (%) of the banking sector in the global and Asian representative economies

Sources:IMF,Financial authorities of each economy

III. Plenty of room for the banking sector to grow

The depth of banking development in Asia deepens slightly in 2022. Among the economies in Asia for which data are available, the average total banking assets as a percentage of GDP is 216.08%; 57.69% of the economies have a total banking assets as a percentage of GDP of more than 100%, which is a significant decline from the previous year, indicating that the development of the banking sector in some Asian economies is lagging behind the development of the real economy, and that there is still a lot of room for development, such as Pakistan, Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, etc. The banking sector in some economies has developed to a high degree, especially in international financial centers such as Hong Kong, China, and Singapore, where total banking assets accounted for 961.84% and 524.20% of GDP, respectively.

Sources:IMF,Financial administrations of economies

Figure 1 Total banking assets/GDP for global and Asian representative economies

In terms of profitability, among the economies for which data are available in 2022, the average interest income of the Asian banking sector as a share of total income was 66.71%, an increase of 2.11 percentage points year on year, with more than 70% of Asian economies experiencing an increase in the share of interest income of the banking sector. On the one hand, the Asian banking industry to increase support for the real economy, the scale of interest-earning assets increased; on the other hand, some Asian economies to follow the pace of interest rate hikes, expanding the level of interest rate spreads. In the factors of "volume" and "price", interest income has become an important driver of profitability in the Asian banking industry. Compared with developed countries in Europe and the United States, the average interest income of the Asian banking industry is lower than the United States (69.8%), but higher than the United Kingdom (44.96%), France (36.44%) and Germany (51.84%). The US banking sector's interest income share increased by 5.17 percentage points year on year, mainly due to widening spreads resulting from tighter monetary policy. Meanwhile, non-interest income, particularly in investment banking, fell sharply due to financial market turmoil and declining growth, with global investment banks realizing cumulative revenues of around $70.4 billion in 2022, down more than 40% year on year, according to Dealogic.

Among Asian economies, China's banking sector had the highest share of interest income, at 81.20%. In order to cope with the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the real economy, China has adopted a flexible, precise, reasonably moderate and stable monetary policy, with the effective lending rate of financial institutions falling significantly and the comprehensive financing cost being lowered. Meanwhile, the scale of loans grew steadily, and the banking industry ensured steady growth in interest income by "making up for price with volume". The growth rate of non-interest income of China's banking industry slowed down. In 2022, China's banking industry stepped up its efforts to reduce fees and concessions, and increased the number of free services, such as the cancellation of the annual fee for personal debit cards by some banks and the reduction or waiver of credit card annual fees and a number of handling fees. Meanwhile, market volatility led to certain challenges in the development of non-interest business, and the high growth trend of non-interest income slowed down. In terms of growth trend, the percentage of interest income from Asian economies that have adopted interest rate hike policies has increased significantly, such as South Korea and Thailand, where the percentage of interest income increased by 8.96 and 10.33 percentage points respectively.

Sources:IMF,Financial administrations of economies

Figure 2 Interest Income/Total Income of the Banking Sector in Global and Asian Representative Economies

The Asian banking sector's deposit and loan spreads are still at a high level compared to Europe and the US, but are on a downward trend overall. According to available data, the overall deposit and loan spread of the Asian banking sector at the end of 2022 will be 3.55%. The main reasons for the relatively high spreads in the Asian banking industry include two aspects: first, the Asian financial system is mainly indirect financing, the bank's bargaining power is stronger, the deposit and loan spreads have been maintained at a higher level; second, the monetary policy tools of the central bank of the Asian economies and policy transmission pathways with the developed economies of Europe and the United States there are differences. In terms of the absolute value of deposit and loan spreads, the Maldives, Brunei, Indonesia, Macao, China, and Hong Kong, China, have the highest banking sector deposit and loan spreads in 2022, all exceeding 5%. Korea has the lowest deposit and loan spreads in the banking sector, at 1.17%.

Sources:IMF,World Bank

Figure 3 Deposit and loan spreads for representative Asian economies

IV. Overall controllable risks in the banking sector

Since 2022, in order to combat inflationary pressures, central banks in major economies have maintained an aggressive process of interest rate hikes, leading to an increase in interest rate risk and having a significant impact on the operations of the global banking sector. Overall, the global economic and financial environment underwent profound changes, and the Asian banking industry responded appropriately to various types of uncertainties and maintained sound operations.

(i)Small decline in credit risk

The ongoing economic and financial uncertainty has had a negative impact on the operations of the global banking sector, with the banking sector in some Asian economies making large loan loss provisions and accelerating the write-off of non-performing loans. At the same time, financial regulatory policies have guided the banking industry to continuously improve its ability to prevent, control and resolve risks, mitigating to a certain extent the insolvency risk of some enterprises through the rollover of stock loans, credit enhancement of some loans and the implementation of loan restructuring, effectively reducing the credit risk faced by the banking industry, and the overall controllable asset quality. From the disclosed data, the average non-performing loan ratio of the banking sector in major Asian economies was 3.41% in 2022, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous year, indicating an improvement in the asset quality of the banking sector in most economies. However, due to a combination of factors, the NPL ratio of the banking sector in some economies has risen significantly and is at a stage of high level. Kyrgyzstan's banking sector NPL ratio has been rising for several years, reaching a new high of 12.82% in 2022; the asset quality of the banking sector in Armenia, India, Cambodia and Bangladesh is under obvious pressure, with NPL ratios of 2.83%, 5.90%, 3.09% and 8.16%, respectively. At the same time, the performance of asset quality of the banking sector in developed Asian economies diverged, the banking sector NPL ratios of South Korea, Israel are less than 1%, the Japanese banking sector NPL ratio declined slightly; in Hong Kong, China, China, Macao, China, the banking sector NPL ratio rose year on year. Some emerging economies relied on strong economic resilience to achieve improved asset quality, such as China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Looking around the world, the non-performing loan ratio of the banking sector in the European and American economies has shown a downward trend, in which the non-performing loan ratio of the banking sector in the United States and the euro zone is 1.24% and 2.10%, respectively, and the non-performing loan ratio of the British banking sector is less than 1%. Compared with the above economies, some of the asset quality prevention and control pressure on the banking sector in Asian economies need to further strengthen the debt restructuring and non-performing disposal capacity to improve the level of systemic financial risk prevention. To a certain extent, the development of Asian economies is still affected by the spillover effect of interest rate hikes by central banks in Europe and the United States, and enterprises and individuals with slower financial recovery are facing greater interest pressure, magnifying the risk of defaults, which may continue to affect the asset quality of the banking sector.

Sources:CEIC

Figure 4 Global and Asian Representative Economies NPL Ratio

(ii) Stable liquidity risk

Asian economies maintain an appropriate monetary policy tone and interest rate levels in the light of economic development needs, guiding the banking sector to rationally match funding maturities and mitigating liquidity risk.

Based on the liquidity ratio perspective, from the disclosed data, the average liquidity ratio of the banking sector in major Asian economies is 61.91% in 2022, an increase of 0.68 percentage points compared with the same-calibre average of the previous year. Among them, the liquidity ratios of the banking sector in Hong Kong, China, and Armenia exceeded the 100% level, reaching 162.30% and 102.39%, respectively, which are at a higher level in Asian economies, but have declined to different degrees compared with the previous year. The liquidity ratios of the banking sector in Cambodia and Indonesia were 19.63% and 26.64%, respectively. In terms of changes in liquidity ratios, the Asian banking sector remains stable in 2022, with both upward and downward structural trends. Among them, the liquidity of the banking sector of some economies has increased significantly, such as Nepal, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan banking liquidity ratio rose 15.14, 15.72, 11.52 percentage points year on year, respectively; the level of liquidity of the banking sector of some economies declined significantly, such as the Armenian banking liquidity ratio declined more than 19 percentage points year on year, and the liquidity ratio of the banking sector in Pakistan and Cambodia declined by more than 5 percentage points year on year.

Sources:CEIC

Figure 5 Global and Asian representative economies' mobility ratios

In terms of Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR), the Asian banking sector remains relatively well endowed with high-quality liquid assets to meet liquidity needs for at least the next 30-day stress scenario. The Bank for International Settlements' (BIS) surveillance report on Basel III shows that the LCR of the banking sector in Asia Pacific and Africa has remained above the 140% level since 2019, which is significantly higher than the minimum regulatory requirement of 100 %. In the first half of 2022, the LCR of the banking sector in Asia Pacific and Africa stood at 144.92%, a decrease of 2.82 percentage points year on year and an increase of 1.97 percentage points, higher than the global banking sector average and lower than the European banking sector level, with an overall improvement in short-term liquidity.

Sources :BIS

Figure 6 Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) for global economies

Sources :BIS

Figure 7 Net stable financing ratio (NSFR) for global economies

In terms of Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), the Asia-Pacific and Africa banking sector's NSFR stood at 123.81% in the first half of 2022, up 1.49 percentage points year on year and 0.28 percentage points sequentially, slightly higher than the global banking sector average. Overall, the medium- to long-term liquidity level of the Asian banking sector has been on an upward trend since 2021, reflecting more abundant stable funding sources available and lower medium- to long-term liquidity risk.

(iii) Increased capital adequacy ratio

In 2022, economic and financial market volatility led to an increase in banks' risk-weighted assets, and weaker earnings performance and profit retention difficulties affected capital replenishment in the banking sector of major Western economies such as the United States and the United Kingdom. In contrast, the capital adequacy ratio of the Asian banking sector has increased, with the average capital adequacy ratio of Asian economies with disclosed data standing at 20.19%, up 0.55 percentage points year on year. Among them, the capital adequacy ratio of the banking sector in Maldives was as high as 50.71%, up 3.83 percentage points year on year, ranking first in Asia; the capital adequacy ratios of the banking sectors in Kyrgyzstan, Cambodia, Armenia, Cyprus, Indonesia and Georgia all exceeded the 20% level, reaching 28.16%, 21.66%, 20.29%, 21.21%, 24.13% and 20.33% respectively. The capital adequacy ratios of the banking sector in Nepal and Japan are low at 13.02% and 14.18%, respectively. In terms of changes in capital adequacy ratios, the banking sector in Kyrgyzstan, Maldives and Armenia saw large increases, rising by 6.40, 3.83 and 3.09 percentage points year on year, respectively, while the banking sector in the Philippines and Japan saw significant decreases, falling by 1.17 and 2.88 percentage points year on year, respectively.

Sources:CEIC

Figure 8 Capital adequacy ratios for representative global and Asian economies

V. Challenges and Opportunities for the Banking Industry in 2023

In 2023, the volatility in financial markets caused by the shift in monetary policy will have a significant impact on some European and American banks, geopolitical conflicts will not subside, high inflationary shocks and tightening of monetary policy will continue, and the road to global economic recovery will be bumpy, which will pose certain challenges to the operation and development of the Asian banking industry. The Asian banking industry should attach great importance to the risk impacts brought about by various types of unanticipated factors, and improve its ability to prevent, control and mitigate risks.

First, the downward pressure on the global economy and the turbulent geopolitical situation continued, with relatively vulnerable economies facing greater risks in the banking sector. the IMF expects global economic growth to be 3.0% in 2023, a further decline from the previous year. Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict continues, overlaid with the continued impact of high global inflation levels, global supply chains and industrial chains remain weak, and investment and trade momentum is insufficient. Downward pressure on the global economy will affect the profitability of the banking sector in some Asian economies. In this regard, the Asian banking sector needs to improve its ability to analyze the macroeconomic situation from a forward-looking perspective as well as its level of adaptability, so as to minimize the negative impact of various types of over-expected factors.

Secondly, the aftermath of interest rate hikes in developed economies has had a spillover impact on the Asian banking sector. In 2023, the continuation of interest rate hikes in Europe, the United States and other developed economies has curbed the level of inflation and pushed the level of interest rates in a number of countries to reach a stage of high levels. Although the rate hikes in emerging Asian economies have not been too aggressive, the level of policy interest rates in some economies is still showing a different degree of upward trend, which has an impact on the asset-liability structure and risk of the banking sector in these economies. On the one hand, higher policy interest rates may expose the asset maturity mismatch problem of some banks and magnify the pressure on asset-liability management; on the other hand, interest rate hikes will not only increase the cost of financing for banks, but also lead to varying degrees of impairment of various types of financial assets held by banks, resulting in interest rate risk losses.

Third, banking volatility in Europe and the United States has impacted global financial markets, increasing the pressure on capital replenishment in the banking sector. In 2023, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse and other banking institutions were caught up in the crisis, with localized contagion of market panic and pessimism, and spillovers of related risks. In response, the United States announced a capital reform plan, urging banks to increase the size of their capital to cope with possible unexpected losses. A number of central banks around the world announced one after another the strict implementation of international standards for capital management in the banking sector, and the Asian banking industry will also dynamically adjust capital retention to promote capital adequacy ratios to meet regulatory requirements, and capital replenishment may come under pressure.

Overall, the Asian economy remains an important driver of global economic growth, and the Asian banking sector faces many important development opportunities.

Firstly, Asia's economic growth is still relatively fast, and the demand for credit and investment financing is still large. In 2023, the global economy is still under downward pressure, but Asia's economic growth is ahead of the world, and the IMF expects that the Asia-Pacific region will contribute 70% of global economic growth in 2023. Economy is the foundation of finance, the faster growth of the Asian economy will create more space for banks to expand their business. In terms of investment and financing, there is a huge demand for credit for infrastructure construction and connectivity in Asian economies, which plays an important role in economic growth. Consumption, economic growth to promote the middle class income level, increasing consumer demand, for banks to bring the development of consumer finance business space.

Secondly, wealth in the Asia-Pacific region has shown resilience, providing a suitable environment for the banking industry to expand its wealth management business. UBS’sGlobal Wealth Report shows that in 2022 the global wealth showed a downward trend, wealth reduction is mainly concentrated in North America and Europe and other places, a total reduction of more than 10 trillion U.S. dollars; Asia-Pacific wealth is relatively less decline, showing a certain degree of resilience. In 2023, Asia's economic growth will lead to the stabilization of the wealth of the high net worth group rebound, the wealth management business ushered in the development of opportunities. In the future, the Asian banking industry should build up a professional investment adviser as the core, different from the product sales of the advisory wealth management model, continue to adjust their own customer service and product strategy, focus on the core growth points to form the characteristics of the business.

Thirdly, the BRICS announced the expansion of its membership to promote the development of a new pattern of multi-bilateral cooperation among Asian economies, creating new opportunities for cross-border cooperation business. In 2023, the BRICS mechanism announced the expansion of its membership to include Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other countries, to strengthen the pattern of multi-bilateral cooperation among Asian economies. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has been in force for one year, which has led to more frequent trade and investment interactions in Asia, and has created new opportunities for the Asian banking industry to expand its business in cross-border cooperation. On the one hand, through the provision of credit guarantee, trade finance, project loans, cross-border capital pooling, investment and wealth management services to meet the relevant financial needs of market players; on the other hand, through the provision of foreign exchange and commodity trading, derivative financial instruments, financial consulting, compliance consulting, insurance and other services, to prevent and mitigate the various types of risks that may arise from investment and financing activities of multinational enterprises, to escort cross-border cooperation.

Fourthly, green transformation and ESG have given the banking industry the impetus to expand its business with high quality. The Asia-Pacific region, with its vast territory, large population and high vulnerability of the natural environment, has room for deepening its efforts in green transformation and ESG. Since 2023, most of the Asian economies have incorporated or are in the process of incorporating climate change-related financial risk management into their prudential regulatory frameworks. At the same time, the banking sector is creating a wider range of green financial products in the areas of green lending, green bonds, clean-tech financing, new energy investment, and green trade to help reduce carbon emissions and increase efficiency. In the future, the green transformation of Asia's banking sector will not only promote the development of related industries and ensure that Asia's economic growth is characterized by high quality, but also help to promote global environmental protection and sustainable development.

Fifth, the rapid development of the digital economy, for the banking industry to speed up the digital transformation empowered by the efficient development of the industry to provide more possibilities. In 2023, the rapid development of the digital economy on the global economic growth of the importance of the more prominent, empowered by the Asian banking industry to develop the space. Digital currencies of central banks in some Asian economies have achieved milestones, bringing opportunities to the banking industry in the payment sector. The entry of GPT-like AI tools into the banking industry, with their powerful information integration, intelligent dialogue and efficient learning capabilities, will have a significant impact on banks' risk management, remote consulting, smart customer service and other refined services. The Asian banking industry will accelerate its digital transformation to meet regulatory requirements and its own development needs, and be further empowered to explore emerging areas such as meta-universe and blockchain, to promote innovation in financial products and services, and to expand business coverage.


[1] There are no official figures on total global banking assets. The global banking asset size in this study is the sum of the banking asset size data for the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, Netherlands, Brazil, Luxembourg, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Mexico, Poland, and the listed economies in Asia.

[2] There are no official figures on total global banking liabilities. Global banking liabilities are aggregated for the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Brazil, Luxembourg, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Mexico, Poland, and the listed economies in Asia.

【This article is AFCA Working Paper No. 2024-15/178】

Expert Biography

Chen Weidong, Director Fellow of Asian Financial Cooperation Association Think Tankers Committee, General Manager of the Research Institute, Bank of China. Dr. Chen joined the Bank in 1999, and was closely involved in the IPO of Bank of China Hong Kong Limited and the restructuring and IPO of the Bank. From 2005 to 2011, Dr. Chen was the Deputy General Manager of the Strategic Development, Bank of China. From 2011 to 2014, he served as the Vice President of Bank of China Liaoning Branch. From 2014 to 2019, Dr. Chen served as the Executive Deputy Director and the Director of the Institute of International Finance, Bank of China. Dr. Chen is also the Secretary General of the China International Finance Society since February 2015, and the chief editor of the journals of Studies of International Finance and International Finance since July 2014.He graduated from the International Economy Department, Renmin University of China with a Ph.D. in economics in 1997.

Wang Jiaqiang, Shao Ke, Du Yang and Li Yifan also contributed to this article.

About AFTTC

Asian Financial Cooperation Association(AFCA) was founded in May 2017. It is the first international financial social organization initiated by China. Asian Financial Cooperation Association Think Tankers Committee (AFTTC) is composed of over a hundred domestic and foreign experts from more than forty countries and regions. With the philosophy of "market location, global perspective, problem orientation, in-depth observation, and smart solution", AFTTC has developed AFCA working paper, Asian Financial Observation, Financial Development Report for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and other bilingual products, conducted Quarterly Seminars, Annual Forums and other high-level financial activities, sending a strong Asian message constantly on the international stage.
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