“碳中和”专刊系列文章（十七）｜区域经济-能源-碳排放多重系统的耦合和协同演化特征：中国主要流域的案例研究

Coupling and coordinated evolution characteristics of regional economy-energy-carbon emission multiple systems: A case study of main China's Basin

Lu Chen,  Xin Li^*, Jingyi Zhao, Xinyu Kang, Lu Liu, Minxi Wang, Wu Chen^*

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2023.07.007

经济-能源-碳排放系统的综合分析对于促进社会可持续发展十分有益。本研究分析了中国2010-2019主要流域的系统发展。研究充分考虑了系统内在和外在的输入输出，提出了区域经济-能源-碳排放耦合和协同演化发展的评价指数。本研究使用系统权重分配的差异来改进耦合协同模型，探索了动态系统的耦合与协同。结果表明系统结构的发展相对稳定，但是整体发展状态并不理想；中国主要江河流域的下游有明显的经济优势，然而其能源系统波动显著。碳排放系统效率在经济快速发展地区有所降低。至于经济-能源-碳排放系统的耦合与协同水平，长江流域要优于黄河流域；从动态协同发展的视角，2012年以来的主要江河流域被划分为两个阶段，且整体上相对稳定。经济和能源快速发展的地区在区域动态协同上通常处于不利的境地；两大江河流域的耦合协同程度有着显著的正向空间自相关。大多数省份显著的空间聚集特征属于高-高类型。低-低类型省份主要集中在下游。本研究对于复杂区域系统的协同治理有一定程度的参考价值。

Comprehensive analysis of the Economy-Energy-Carbon Emission (EECE) system is beneficial for promoting sustainable social development. This study analyzes the system development of major watersheds in China from 2010 to 2019. The research fully considers the system's internal and external inputs and outputs and proposes an evaluation index system for regional EECE coupling and coordinated development. Then, using the difference in system weight allocation to improve the coupling and coordination model, the study explores the dynamic system's coupling and coordination. The results show that (1) The development of the system structure is relatively stable, but the overall development status is not ideal; (2) The downstream of China's main river basins has obvious economic advantages, while the energy system fluctuates greatly. The efficiency of the carbon emission system will decrease in areas with rapid economic development. The coupling and coordination level of the EECE system is better in the Yangtze River Basin than in the Yellow River Basin; (3) From the perspective of dynamic coordinated development, the main river basins have been divided into two states since 2012, but it is relatively stable overall. Regional dynamic coordination is often at a disadvantage in regions with rapid economic and energy development; (4) The coupling coordination degree of the two river basins has significant positive spatial autocorrelation. Most provinces' significant spatial clustering characteristics of the coupling coordination degree are High-High type. Low-Low type provinces are mainly concentrated downstream. The research process has certain reference significance for the collaborative governance of complex regional systems.

通讯作者

李新，成都理工大学管理科学学院教授，博士生导师。研究领域为资源环境管理与政策、资源评价与管理、工程管理。在Resources Policy、Journal of Cleaner Production、Journal of Environmental Sciences等国际期刊发表第一/通讯作者论文多篇。

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1001074223003091

Lu Chen, Xin Li, Jingyi Zhao, Xinyu Kang, Lu Liu, Minxi Wang, Wu Chen, 2024. Coupling and coordinated evolution characteristics of regional economy-energy-carbon emission multiple systems: A case study of main China's Basin. J. Environ. Sci. 140, 204-218.